2019 MLB Draft Guide: Understanding Sample Size
Fantasy baseball owners tend to overreact to hot and cold starts despite being told to wait for a greater sample size. Howard Bender explains why you need to understand the concept.
I’m going to take a page out of the Colton & The Wolfman playbook here and start you off with one of my favorite movie scenes of all time. If you’ve seen Coming to America, then sit back and enjoy. If you haven’t, well you better get to NetFlixing here and grab a comedic education (if foul language offends you, cover your tiny, little baby ears or just don't watch this clip).
Now how does this relate to fantasy baseball? Because every time you ask a fantasy expert about a hot or cold start in April, they come back to you with the phrase, “sample size” just as fast as a white guy mentions Rocky Marciano. It’s a knee-jerk reaction.
You: “Hey Howard, what do you think of Marcell Ozuna hitting just .182 here on April 15th?”
Me: “Not much. Look at the sample size. Dude’s had 42 plate appearances. You gotta give him some time.”
You can insert any player’s name and any statistic you want, good or bad, and you’ll probably get the same answer,...