| Age: | 25 |
| Bats/Throws: | R/R |
| Height/Weight: | 6'2", 190 lbs |
| Position: | Starting Pitcher |
It was a damn shame that Luis Castillo’s splendid rookie campaign came to an end on September 6 of last year following arguably his most dominant performance of the season. On that particular Wednesday afternoon, the rocket-armed righty fired eight frames of one-run, four-hit baseball while punching out 10 Brewers in front of the Cincinnati home crowd. Though that was the last time the Reds’ fanbase would see what many believe to be the budding ace of the rebuilding club in 2017, Castillo certainly left them wanting more and wildly anticipating the future.
It’s perfectly understandable why the bottom-feeding Reds shutdown their promising, young hurler after the aforementioned outing, as Castillo had logged a personal-high 169.2 innings for the year between Double-A and the bigs. At this point, after working 107.0 innings, then 131.2 followed by last year’s total respectively over the last three seasons, he should be ready for a progression up to the 180-190 range. Given the stats Castillo laid down in his first foray through the majors, he could be headed for fantasy stardom in the very near future.
Should you go ahead and draft Castillo as that type of pitcher this spring? Well, it’s always a risk with such a short track record from which to work, but the good news is that his current Mock Draft Army ADP suggests it will not be necessary.
The most recent results from the MDA have Castillo pegged as the 31st starting pitcher (119.4 overall) off the board. Despite having a mere 89.1 innings of MLB work on his resume, that is an incredibly inviting draft position, particularly when taking into account the question marks surrounding the likes of some names such as Alex Wood (SP 29, 110.9), Masahiro Tanaka (SP 27, 101.7), and Jose Berrios (SP 24, 91.5).
The form that Castillo displayed in his admittedly small sample size at the show last summer could in fact warrant consideration in the Top-100 overall, or even the Top-75 for the gamblers out there. Just the fact that he fanned 27.3 percent of the major-league batters he faced, which would have placed him between Jimmy Nelson and Yu Darvish for 12th among those with at least 150 IP, is enough to make anyone salivate.
Equipped with a dynamic heater that registers above 97 mph on average – Castillo actually utilizes a four-seamer and a sinking fastball that both sit in the mid-to-upper 90s - to go along with a power slider and a fantastic changeup which opponents hit a meager .124 against last season, there’s little reason to believe a 200-strikeout season is beyond him in 2018. That repertoire produced not only the previously stated strikeout rate but also a 12.7 percent swinging-strike rate which would have similarly landed him among the Top-15 for those with 150-plus IP last year.
As far as ratios are concerned, there is evidence that Castillo’s 3.12 ERA for the Reds last season should have been a bit higher. A 3.74 FIP backs that up. Great American Ball Park is well known as a “bandbox” and its dimensions have already had a definite effect on Castillo, as he surrendered seven long balls across 45.0 innings at home in 2017. Still, he managed a promising 3.40 ERA while pitching in Cincinnati, and the main reasons for that are a 60.7-percent groundball rate combined with a .204 BABIP and 78.0-percent strand rate.
That GB% and BABIP may not be sustainable at those levels, but the fact that Castillo can keep the ball on the ground with regularity while maintaining an elite K-rate (9.8 K/9) will aid him tremendously at his hitter-friendly home park in the long term. Away from Cincy last year, he turned in a 2.84 ERA (3.20 FIP) and 49-to-15 K/BB ratio across 44.1 innings. Suffice it to say, Castillo appears to be more than comfortable pitching on the road.
The Reds might not win many games this year, but that’s just one stat and should really only be a minor consideration when determining an appropriate place to select Castillo in fantasy drafts. If you’re doing the smart thing and playing in formats that use Quality Starts in lieu of the archaic Wins category, or possibly even neither, it obviously will not matter at all.
Castillo’s upside is a Top-20 finish, maybe even Top-15, among starting pitchers this season. So, as we head into the month of March, he’s a potential steal. Will he rival Luis Severino’s overall performance from 2017? Probably not. But Castillo could indeed be THE breakout hurler of 2018.