DFS NFL WR Coach: Week 16

Published: Dec 23, 2016

Well, I’ve got some good news and some bad news. The good news is that there are a vast number of great match-ups spanning all of the pricing tiers I use. The bad news is that I’m having a hard time deciding which ones I like the most. I like to give you anywhere from 4-to-6 options at each level, so whittling down my list is going to be tough. That being said, if you’re one of those DFS players who likes to put in a ton of lineups, this could be a great week for you. If you lock down a QB and a pair of RBs you really like, then mixing and matching receivers and flex plays should be fairly easy as you can go a number of different ways. That being said, let’s look at the data and go with some recommendations.

															Pts	Opp Pa	Opp Ov	Opp Pa
Player	Tm	H/A	Opp	G	Snaps	Tar	Tar%	Tar/G	Rec	Rec/G	Catch%	ReYds	ReTD	YPC	Allow	Def Rk	Def Rk	Yds/G	O/U	$Line	$FD	$DK	$FA
Mike Evans	TB	A	NO	14	785	154	30.7%	11.0	84	6.0	54.5%	1,159	10	13.8	29.7	28	27	292.1	52.5	-150	$8900	$8500	$5800
Odell Beckham	NYG	A	PHI	14	806	142	28.0%	10.1	85	6.1	59.9%	1,173	10	13.8	31.2	2	10	257.7	41.5	125	$8800	$8,600	$6400
Julio Jones	ATL	A	CAR	12	625	113	24.5%	9.4	72	6.0	63.7%	1,253	5	17.4	31.3	15	9	295.9	52	120	$8500	$8100	$6100
Antonio Brown	PIT	H	BAL	14	846	143	27.3%	10.2	96	6.9	67.1%	1,188	11	12.4	30.4	6	3	248.2	44.5	-240	$8300	$8200	$6200
Jordy Nelson	GB	H	MIN	14	829	125	24.7%	8.9	75	5.4	60.0%	913	12	12.2	21.8	5	17	221.5	43	-300	$7800	$7000	$5750
Dez Bryant	DAL	H	DET	11	565	90	20.9%	8.2	46	4.2	51.1%	726	6	15.8	26	30	30	266.8	44.5	-340	$7600	$6500	$5100
T.Y. Hilton	IND	A	OAK	14	767	127	26.7%	9.1	78	5.6	61.4%	1,203	6	15.4	28.5	21	22	278.9	53	-185	$7600	$7800	$5600
A.J. Green	CIN	A	HOU	10	559	100	21.0%	10.0	66	6.6	66.0%	964	4	14.6	23.1	11	18	219.2	41	-120	$7400	$7200	$5700
Amari Cooper	OAK	H	IND	14	842	117	22.3%	8.4	74	5.3	63.2%	1,038	4	14.0	27	27	23	281.5	53	-185	$7200	$6500	$4750
Brandin Cooks	NO	H	TB	14	667	102	17.6%	7.3	70	5.0	68.6%	1,056	8	15.1	27.8	7	7	270.1	52.5	-150	$7100	$6800	$5400
Alshon Jeffery	CHI	H	WAS	10	516	72	16.1%	7.2	40	4.0	55.6%	630	1	15.8	27.8	24	26	280.1	46.5	155	$7000	$6300	$4700
Doug Baldwin	SEA	H	ARI	13	730	102	21.8%	7.8	79	6.1	77.5%	913	6	11.6	31.2	4	8	229.3	43	-380	$7000	$6000	$4800
Michael Thomas	NO	H	TB	13	673	99	17.0%	7.6	76	5.8	76.8%	883	8	11.6	27.8	7	7	270.1	52.5	-150	$6900	$6000	$5100
Tyrell Williams	SD	A	CLE	14	722	103	21.3%	7.4	59	4.2	57.3%	925	6	15.7	29.6	31	32	263.9	44	220	$6800	$5800	$4650
Julian Edelman	NE	H	NYJ	14	734	138	28.6%	9.9	85	6.1	61.6%	866	2	10.2	27.3	32	28	271.2	43.5	-1400	$6700	$6900	$4900
Kelvin Benjamin	CAR	H	ATL	14	649	103	21.5%	7.4	53	3.8	51.5%	785	5	14.8	29.8	26	29	287.9	52	120	$6700	$5500	$4550
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	A	SEA	14	891	139	24.5%	9.9	98	7.0	70.5%	949	5	9.7	28.4	10	6	241.9	43	-380	$6700	$6100	$4750
DeAndre Hopkins	HOU	H	CIN	14	883	134	26.8%	9.6	68	4.9	50.7%	788	4	11.6	23.6	18	21	260.2	41	-120	$6600	$5200	$4750
Davante Adams	GB	H	MIN	14	721	99	19.6%	7.1	63	4.5	63.6%	897	9	14.2	21.8	5	17	221.5	43	-300	$6600	$5400	$5000
Brandon Marshall	NYJ	A	NE	14	799	124	25.2%	8.9	57	4.1	46.0%	760	3	13.3	24.9	25	13	267.2	43.5	-1400	$6500	$5300	$4600
Jarvis Landry	MIA	A	BUF	14	723	113	28.0%	8.1	82	5.9	72.6%	1,031	3	12.6	24.2	17	24	242.1	41.5	-190	$6500	$5500	$4700
Demaryius Thomas	DEN	A	KC	14	739	130	26.5%	9.3	83	5.9	63.8%	1,016	5	12.2	29.6	8	12	269.7	37.5	-175	$6500	$6400	$4900
Emmanuel Sanders	DEN	A	KC	14	755	134	27.4%	9.6	78	5.6	58.2%	1,006	5	12.9	29.6	8	12	269.7	37.5	-175	$6400	$6000	$4900
Tyreek Hill	KC	H	DEN	14	320	71	15.1%	5.1	56	4.0	78.9%	547	6	9.8	17.6	1	1	197.1	37.5	-175	$6400	$5900	$4700
DeSean Jackson	WAS	A	CHI	13	576	88	16.5%	6.8	49	3.8	55.7%	857	4	17.5	31.1	14	14	236.8	46.5	155	$6300	$5500	$4400
Ty Montgomery	GB	H	MIN	13	258	43	8.5%	3.3	35	2.7	81.4%	313	0	8.9	21.8	5	17	221.5	43	-300	$6300	$5900	$4850
Cole Beasley	DAL	H	DET	14	491	89	20.7%	6.4	68	4.9	76.4%	759	5	11.2	26	30	30	266.8	44.5	-340	$6200	$4900	$4200
Kenny Britt	LA	H	SF	14	717	107	22.4%	7.6	67	4.8	62.6%	987	5	14.7	32.3	29	31	267.8	40	-180	$6200	$5700	$4550
Michael Crabtree	OAK	H	IND	14	715	127	24.2%	9.1	77	5.5	60.6%	866	8	11.2	27	27	23	281.5	53	-185	$6200	$6100	$4850
Malcolm Mitchell	NE	H	NYJ	13	382	43	8.9%	3.3	29	2.2	67.4%	372	4	12.8	27.3	32	28	271.2	43.5	-1400	$6100	$5200	$4400
Stefon Diggs	MIN	A	GB	11	587	101	22.0%	9.2	78	7.1	77.2%	861	2	11.0	32.2	20	19	278.7	43	-300	$6100	$5900	$4500
Terrelle Pryor	CLE	H	SD	14	721	124	25.3%	8.9	67	4.8	54.0%	877	4	13.1	27.3	9	5	276.8	44	220	$6100	$4900	$4400
Golden Tate	DET	A	DAL	14	691	106	23.3%	7.6	71	5.1	67.0%	820	3	11.5	29	22	20	285.1	44.5	-340	$6000	$6600	$4900
DeVante Parker	MIA	A	BUF	13	596	74	18.3%	5.7	47	3.6	63.5%	614	3	13.1	24.2	17	24	242.1	41.5	-190	$6000	$4200	$4200
Jamison Crowder	WAS	A	CHI	14	620	94	17.6%	6.7	64	4.6	68.1%	828	7	12.9	31.1	14	14	236.8	46.5	155	$6000	$5600	$4450
Steve Smith	BAL	A	PIT	12	555	89	15.6%	7.4	60	5.0	67.4%	686	4	11.4	24.2	13	4	263.8	44.5	-240	$6000	$5100	$4300
Sammy Watkins	BUF	H	MIA	6	205	29	8.0%	4.8	16	2.7	55.2%	235	1	14.7	30.1	12	15	252.5	41.5	-190	$6000	$5000	$4600
Willie Snead	NO	H	TB	13	592	95	16.4%	7.3	67	5.2	70.5%	792	4	11.8	27.8	7	7	270.1	52.5	-150	$6000	$5500	$4700
Marqise Lee	JAC	H	TEN	14	657	89	16.3%	6.4	54	3.9	60.7%	728	2	13.5	32.1	23	25	287.2	43.5	180	$5900	$4300	$4300
Donte Moncrief	IND	A	OAK	8	434	53	11.1%	6.6	28	3.5	52.8%	277	6	9.9	28.5	21	22	278.9	53	-185	$5900	$5400	$4400
Taylor Gabriel	ATL	A	CAR	11	284	46	10.0%	4.2	32	2.9	69.6%	564	6	17.6	31.3	15	9	295.9	52	120	$5900	$6200	$4550
Brandon LaFell	CIN	A	HOU	14	830	86	18.1%	6.1	51	3.6	59.3%	665	5	13.0	23.1	11	18	219.2	41	-120	$5800	$4800	$4500
Marvin Jones	DET	A	DAL	13	710	82	18.0%	6.3	46	3.5	56.1%	797	4	17.3	29	22	20	285.1	44.5	-340	$5700	$4200	$4400
Adam Thielen	MIN	A	GB	13	634	75	16.3%	5.8	56	4.3	74.7%	758	3	13.5	32.2	20	19	278.7	43	-300	$5700	$4600	$4400
Rishard Matthews	TEN	A	JAC	14	599	86	20.3%	6.1	53	3.8	61.6%	800	7	15.1	25.3	16	11	226.8	43.5	180	$5700	$4900	$4700
Dontrelle Inman	SD	A	CLE	14	801	82	17.0%	5.9	51	3.6	62.2%	715	4	14.0	29.6	31	32	263.9	44	220	$5600	$6000	$4550
Allen Robinson	JAC	H	TEN	14	867	127	23.3%	9.1	59	4.2	46.5%	654	6	11.1	32.1	23	25	287.2	43.5	180	$5600	$4600	$4400
Mike Wallace	BAL	A	PIT	14	709	105	18.4%	7.5	64	4.6	61.0%	963	4	15.0	24.2	13	4	263.8	44.5	-240	$5600	$4800	$4200
Randall Cobb	GB	H	MIN	13	633	83	16.4%	6.4	60	4.6	72.3%	610	4	10.2	21.8	5	17	221.5	43	-300	$5600	$4000	$4500
Jordan Matthews	PHI	H	NYG	13	729	111	20.6%	8.5	71	5.5	64.0%	792	3	11.2	26.6	3	2	277.2	41.5	125	$5600	$5,100	$4450
Robby Anderson	NYJ	A	NE	14	550	68	13.8%	4.9	38	2.7	55.9%	544	2	14.3	24.9	25	13	267.2	43.5	-1400	$5500	$4800	$4250
Cameron Meredith	CHI	H	WAS	12	537	66	14.8%	5.5	44	3.7	66.7%	588	3	13.4	27.8	24	26	280.1	46.5	155	$5500	$4700	$4450
Pierre Garcon	WAS	A	CHI	14	673	102	19.1%	7.3	71	5.1	69.6%	851	3	12.0	31.1	14	14	236.8	46.5	155	$5500	$4900	$4400
Sterling Shepard	NYG	A	PHI	14	795	89	17.5%	6.4	55	3.9	61.8%	592	7	10.8	31.2	2	10	257.7	41.5	125	$5400	$4,600	$4250
Jeremy Maclin	KC	H	DEN	10	466	67	14.2%	6.7	37	3.7	55.2%	474	2	12.8	17.6	1	1	197.1	37.5	-175	$5400	$4400	$4600
Chris Hogan	NE	H	NYJ	13	649	49	10.1%	3.8	33	2.5	67.3%	631	4	19.1	27.3	32	28	271.2	43.5	-1400	$5300	$4200	$4000
Anquan Boldin	DET	A	DAL	14	642	78	17.1%	5.6	55	3.9	70.5%	481	7	8.7	29	22	20	285.1	44.5	-340	$5300	$4100	$4100
Tyler Boyd	CIN	A	HOU	14	621	74	15.6%	5.3	50	3.6	67.6%	539	1	10.8	23.1	11	18	219.2	41	-120	$5300	$4100	$4350
Mohamed Sanu	ATL	A	CAR	13	620	73	15.8%	5.6	52	4.0	71.2%	565	3	10.9	31.3	15	9	295.9	52	120	$5200	$5100	$4250
Kenny Stills	MIA	A	BUF	14	655	66	16.3%	4.7	35	2.5	53.0%	650	7	18.6	24.2	17	24	242.1	41.5	-190	$5100	$3900	$4150
Robert Woods	BUF	H	MIA	11	470	63	17.3%	5.7	43	3.9	68.3%	522	1	12.1	30.1	12	15	252.5	41.5	-190	$5100	$3400	$3500
Corey Coleman	CLE	H	SD	8	356	59	12.0%	7.4	26	3.3	44.1%	358	3	13.8	27.3	9	5	276.8	44	220	$5100	$3900	$3900
Will Fuller	HOU	H	CIN	12	627	79	15.8%	6.6	41	3.4	51.9%	572	2	14.0	23.6	18	21	260.2	41	-120	$5000	$3,900	$4200
Tajae Sharpe	TEN	A	JAC	14	685	73	17.3%	5.2	38	2.7	52.1%	474	2	12.5	25.3	16	11	226.8	43.5	180	$5000	$3200	$3800
J.J. Nelson	ARI	A	SEA	13	342	55	9.7%	4.2	27	2.1	49.1%	361	5	13.4	28.4	10	6	241.9	43	-380	$5000	$4400	$4350
Jeremy Kerley	SF	A	LA	14	631	99	23.1%	7.1	53	3.8	53.5%	544	3	10.3	31.4	19	16	247.6	40	-180	$4900	$3500	$3900
John Brown	ARI	A	SEA	13	467	67	11.8%	5.2	36	2.8	53.7%	480	2	13.3	28.4	10	6	241.9	43	-380	$4900	$3900	$4200
Dorial Green-Beckham	PHI	H	NYG	13	451	67	12.5%	5.2	34	2.6	50.7%	370	2	10.9	26.6	3	2	277.2	41.5	125	$4900	$3,500	$4000
Travis Benjamin	SD	A	CLE	13	469	71	14.7%	5.5	44	3.4	62.0%	602	4	13.7	29.6	31	32	263.9	44	220	$4800	$4800	$4300
Ted Ginn	CAR	H	ATL	14	549	79	16.5%	5.6	47	3.4	59.5%	654	4	13.9	29.8	26	29	287.9	52	120	$4800	$4500	$4000
Devin Funchess	CAR	H	ATL	14	413	53	11.1%	3.8	22	1.6	41.5%	362	4	16.5	29.8	26	29	287.9	52	120	$4800	$3400	$3800
Eli Rogers	PIT	H	BAL	11	402	55	10.5%	5.0	38	3.5	69.1%	449	3	11.8	30.4	6	3	248.2	44.5	-240	$4800	$3800	$4250
Tavon Austin	LA	H	SF	13	595	95	19.9%	7.3	54	4.2	56.8%	477	3	8.8	32.3	29	31	267.8	40	-180	$4700	$4000	$4200
Tyler Lockett	SEA	H	ARI	14	470	63	13.5%	4.5	39	2.8	61.9%	559	1	14.3	31.2	4	8	229.3	43	-380	$4700	$4800	$4100
Terrance Williams	DAL	H	DET	14	565	52	12.1%	3.7	37	2.6	71.2%	500	3	13.5	26	30	30	266.8	44.5	-340	$4600	$3200	$3500
Adam Humphries	TB	A	NO	13	537	68	13.6%	5.2	44	3.4	64.7%	516	2	11.7	29.7	28	27	292.1	52.5	-150	$4600	$3700	$4000
Seth Roberts	OAK	H	IND	14	630	71	13.6%	5.1	35	2.5	49.3%	371	5	10.6	27	27	23	281.5	53	-185	$4600	$3000	$3500
Quincy Enunwa	NYJ	A	NE	14	707	92	18.7%	6.6	52	3.7	56.5%	746	4	14.3	24.9	25	13	267.2	43.5	-1400	$4600	$4000	$4550
Jermaine Kearse	SEA	H	ARI	14	690	73	15.6%	5.2	35	2.5	47.9%	429	0	12.3	31.2	4	8	229.3	43	-380	$4600	$3000	$3800
Nelson Agholor	PHI	H	NYG	13	737	64	11.9%	4.9	34	2.6	53.1%	318	1	9.4	26.6	3	2	277.2	41.5	125	$4600	$3,000	$3800
Torrey Smith	SF	A	LA	12	646	49	11.5%	4.1	20	1.7	40.8%	267	3	13.4	31.4	19	16	247.6	40	-180	$4500	$3400	$3800
Kendall Wright	TEN	A	JAC	10	254	39	9.2%	3.9	27	2.7	69.2%	395	3	14.6	25.3	16	11	226.8	43.5	180	$4500	$3100	$3700
Kamar Aiken	BAL	A	PIT	14	498	45	7.9%	3.2	27	1.9	60.0%	306	1	11.3	24.2	13	4	263.8	44.5	-240	$4500	$3000	$3500
Sammie Coates	PIT	H	BAL	14	277	49	9.4%	3.5	21	1.5	42.9%	435	2	20.7	30.4	6	3	248.2	44.5	-240	$4500	$3000	$3500

Elite Plays

Mike Evans, TB – Everyone is saying the Saints pass defense has been much better, but it still ranks 28^th in the league and has allowed the second-most passing yards this season. It’s all about the volume for Evans and hopefully the lame showing last three weeks will keep his ownership percentage down. Should be a shootout in the Big Easy.

Odell Beckham, NYG – Found the end zone twice the last time he faced the Eagles and that was when their defense was still good. They’ve softened a lot since then.

Antonio Brown, PIT – Had 85 yards and a touchdown the last time he saw the Ravens. Now we’ve got a home game for him and Big Ben with Jimmy Smith still banged-up.

Julio Jones, ATL – Still a question as to whether or not he plays. If he does, you run the risk of him being more of a decoy, but I have to get him into at least one GPP lineup just in case.

Pricey but Affordable

Jordy Nelson, GB – Double-digit targets in five of his last seven games with six touchdowns in that span. Had 75 yards and a score against the Vikings in Week 2. They’re a lot softer these days.

Dez Bryant, DAL – Should see a fair amount of Darius Slay, but Lions have allowed 25 passing touchdowns this season. Dez might not hit big yardage totals, but should still find the end zone.

T.Y. Hilton, IND – Another volume play in a game with the highest expected points total. If Khalil Mack doesn’t destroy the offensive line and kill Andrew Luck, Hilton should easily see double-digit targets.

Michael Thomas/Brandin Cooks, NO – Drew Brees dazzled on the road last week and now gets a home start against the Bucs. Thomas will likely be his volume play while Cooks obviously has the big TD upside. Saints will move both around to exploit match-ups whether it’s size or speed.

Julian Edelman, NE – Tom Brady against a Jets team playing for pride? What pride? They’re cooked and the Pats know it. Edelman should see a significant number of targets early. Just beware the ground attack in the second half once Belichick has his comfortable lead.

Solid Value

Demaryius Thomas, DEN – Hard to argue with 37 targets over the last three games. The Chiefs don’t shadow so look for the Broncos to try and keep him away from Marcus Peters when they can. Cheifs rank 23^rd in the league against WR1 and allow an average of 75.7 yards per game to them.

Tyreek Hill, KC – I don’t like the match-up and I hate the fact that they don’t utilize him enough in the passing game, but based on his role in the ground attack, he’s worth a look in GPP play. I look at him in the same way I view Julio if he plays. Gotta have a piece somewhere, even if it’s just a little one.

DeSean Jackson, WAS – Cold weather be damned! The Bears rank 23^rd in the league against WR1 and give up almost 70 yards per game to them. Kirk Cousins is leaning on him, especially with Jordan Reed banged-up and possibly out this week.

Ty Montgomery, GB – He continues to warrant consideration as the No. 1 running back for the Packers. It would be nice to see him get a few more targets, but considering how Frank Gore and Robert Turbin carved up the Vikings run defense last week. I’ll give the Full Monty a look.

Malcolm Mitchell, NE – The Patriots are going to have no trouble moving the ball on the Jets and Mitchell remains a trusted red zone target for Brady. I like him more on FanDuel than Draft Kings just because of the targets.

Steve Smith, BAL – The Steelers rank 31^st in the league against WR1 and are giving up an average of 90 yards per game to them. Smith is expected to see plenty of targets, but there’s a little concern about red zone looks as he only sees one or two per game.

Bargain Shopping

Taylor Gabriel, ATL – If Jones is out, then Gabriel is a must-play, especially at this price. But even if Jones plays, there’s a chance he’s more of a decoy which will have me using Gabriel in a few GPP lineups.

Rishard Matthews, TEN – How his price is so deflated after the year he’s had is beyond me. A late-season bye and a bad game against Denver has kept him off the radar, but last week’s 100-plus game is much more reflective of his talents. He may see some Jalen Ramsey, but the Titans will move him around to free him up.

Allen Robinson, JAC – Given the price, the new coach and the expectation that the Jags will fall behind and be forced to air it out against a bad Titans secondary, I’m going to give Robinson a look here in GPP games. If the players are happy to be without Gus Bradley, we could see the 2016 version of the Blake Bortles/ARob tandem.

Mike Wallace, BAL – Revenge Game Part Deux? When he faced the Steelers in Week 9, he had four catches for 124 yards and a touchdown on six targets. The Steelers pass D has improved since then, but Wallace should still see his usual half-dozen targets. If he can break one, he’ll pay strong dividends.

Cameron Meredith, CHI – Matt Barkley is airing it out and Josh Norman is likely to pay more attention to Alshon Jeffery. Meredith is still Barkley’s favorite and should have no problem beating Bashaud Breeland downfield. Redskins rank 29^th against WR2 this season.

Digging Real Deep

J.J. Nelson, ARI – With no Michael Floyd, Nelson is seeing a lot more snaps as the Cardinals new WR2. Seattle’s secondary is still trying to get past the Earl Thomas injury and rank 25^th in the league against the opposing WR2. With Carson Palmer throwing the ball 40 times per game, Nelson, at this price, should be a great play and that’s not even including the red zone looks he gets.

Devin Funchess, CAR – This game with Atlanta is likely to be an aerial assault for both sides and Funchess is likely to see some nice red zone looks because of his size. The Falcons have trouble covering slot receivers and rank dead last against opposing WR3. Ted Ginn gets those deep balls, but Funchess could still prove valuable based on this cost.

Tyler Lockett, SEA – He’s boom or bust which leaves him as a GPP only for me, but at this price, I’ll take a chance with the Cardinals ranking 28^th against WR2 on the outside.

Adam Humphries, TB – The Bucs have talked to Jameis Winston about spreading the ball around and Humphries saw five targets which is well above his average. Look for the Bucs to keep shooting it out with Brees in the Superdome and look for Humphries to find the end zone again as the Saints rank 26^th vs WR2 and 23^rd against the slot.

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