MMA DFS Playbook UFC 278 Usman vs Edwards: Top DraftKings DFS Picks
The UFC heads to Salt Lake City Utah for UFC 278 Usman vs Edwards. The early prelims kick off at 6:30 PM on ESPN+/ESPN, followed by the Prelims at 8:00 PM on ABC. The main card follows on ESPN+ PPV at 10:00 PM.
Check out all of the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck in your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 278 Usman vs Edwards
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Kamaru Usman vs Leon Edwards | 9100/7100 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -345/ +285 | +200/+450 |
| The main event this week gives us a rematch from a 2015 matchup when both fighters were just making a name for themselves in the UFC. Neither fighter has lost since that matchup with Usman and Edwards both making vast improvements in their perceived weaknesses. Usman is going to look to wrestle here while Edwards is going to try to keep it standing, which coupled with the -360 price tag on Usman makes him the superior play for DraftKings. Usman has looked much better striking in recent fights but sometimes he falls in love with his hands which could lead to an opportunity for Edwards to capitalize. A stack for cash games makes a ton of sense as this fight will likely go into the championship rounds. My pick for this fight is Usman to find a late finish in R4/5. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Kamaru Usman | 9100 | Leon Edwards | Somewhat-Safe | -345 | +200 |
| Usman will likely be the highest-owned fighter and for good reason (see above), make sure if you are playing him in GPPs that you differentiate yourself with some lower-owned plays. | |||||
| Tyson Pedro | #N/A | #N/A | Somewhat-Safe | -730 | -550 |
| Tyson Pedro comes in as the biggest favorite on the slate and for good reason. Harry Hunsucker hasn't made it past the first round in any of his UFC fights and I don't think that streak ends here as the U1.5 rounds are -400 in this fight. Pedro should put up a huge score in a win, the only concern is as the most expensive fighter will he make the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Alexandr Romanov | 9000 | Marcin Tybura | Somewhat-Safe | -380 | +100 |
| Romanov has the clear wrestling advantage on paper and should be able to dominate this fight. The biggest concern is that after weighing 264-265 for his fights against Vanderra and Juan Espino, he showed up on the scales at 239lb this week. He was a -2500 favorite vs Sherman and weighed in at 237lbs, but there wasn't much to take away from the fight, his only question mark this week is how will he look after dropping that much weight. | |||||
| Amir Albazi | 9200 | Francisco Figueiredo | Moderate | -460 | +140 |
| Albazi comes in with a well-rounded skill set but should look to lean on his wrestling early and often. Albazi has superior cardio so if this fight does get dragged into deeper waters, he should still have the advantage. I’m taking Albazi to get a finish in late R2. | |||||
| Miranda Maverick | 9300 | Shanna Young | Moderate | #N/A | #N/A |
| THIS FIGHT HAS BEEN CANCELLED | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Paulo Costa | 8700 | Luke Rockhold | Moderate | -360 | -165 |
| Skill for skill these two fighters are pretty close, but Costa's durability is far superior to Rockhold's. Eventually one of Costa's flurries will land clean, and I don't expect Rockhold's chin to survive the encounter. | |||||
| Sean Woodson | 8800 | Luis Saldana | Moderate | -340 | +150 |
| Woodson is huge for this division coming in at 6'2 145 so almost always has a reach advantage and he uses it effectively. Look for him to pump out the jab and try to counter when Saldana throws his kicks. Woodson is fairly safe to win a decision here, but in terms of DraftKings scoring, and firefight there are other fights with much more upside. | |||||
| Jared Gordon | 8900 | Leonardo Santos | Somewhat-Risky | -265 | +180 |
| Gordon looks to push a pace with both his striking and chain wrestling that normally leads to one of the fighters in his matchup hitting the optimal lineup. Santos normally comes out hot in round 1 so it could get dicey early, but the later the fight goes the more likely Gordon is to take over. Gordon has been KO'd multiple times, but as long as he gets through the early portion of this fight he should coast. | |||||
| Merab Dvalishvili | 8200 | Jose Aldo | Somewhat-Risky | -135 | +400 |
| "The Machine" is going to look to push his hellacious pace on aging legend Aldo in what should be a firefightwrestling-heavy. Merab was tagged early by Moraes in his last fight, and Aldo still has the power behind his punches to do the same. Merab is going to attempt 10+ takedowns if this fight goes the distance so he likely hits the optimal lineup in any win at $8200. He always comes with a ton of ownership due to his huge upside (162 DK pts last time out), so fade at your own risk. | |||||
| Victor Altamirano | 8600 | Daniel Da Silva | Somewhat-Risky | -170 | +120 |
| Altamirano is a well-rounded fighter going against the speedy Da Silva in the first fight of the night. Altamirano has shot 4+ takedowns and landed 75+ ss in all his UFC fights so far, while Da Silva hasn't made it more than 6 minutes in either of his UFC fights. Da Silva comes out aggressive early so the first round will be close, but Altamirano's pace will eventually break Da Silva. I'm looking at Altamirano to win by R2 stoppage. | |||||
| AJ Fletcher | 8400 | Ange Loosa | Somewhat-Risky | -155 | +250 |
| Fletcher's wrestling-heavy approach is exactly what we are looking for in a DraftKings play. He faces a tough task here in Loosa who has shown great takedown defense through two UFC fights his opponents'must-play wrestling wasn't on Fletcher's level. Loosa should have the striking advantage so if Fletcher can't get his wrestling going he might be in for a long night. | |||||
| Jose Aldo | 8000 | Merab Dvalishvili | Risky | +115 | +350 |
| Aldo's best path to victory is to find an early finish against Merab. If he doesn't find the finish he likely gets controlled for the later part of the fight but going against Merab's heavy ownership could payoff massively if he does find the finish. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Leon Edwards | 7100 | Kamaru Usman | Somewhat-Risky | +285 | +450 |
| The other half of the main event, Edwards is going to look to keep the fight standing and strike with the champ. In cash he is a must-play at his salary in a fight that is favored to go 25 minutes, giving him one of the highest floors on the slate for the big underdogs. Usman likely comes in as the highest-owned fighter, so Edwards is a great contrarian play. | |||||
| Jay Perrin | 7700 | Aori Aoriqileng | Somewhat-Risky | +115 | +400 |
Perrin will look to wrestle here and has been in camp with 135 lb champ Aljo Sterling and Merab Dvalishvili so you know he has been getting in good reps in the gym. Aori was taken down multiple times by Cory Durden at 125lbs while Perrin has secured multiple takedowns in all of his fights in the UFC and on the Contender Series all while facing better competition. Aori is durable so finding a finish will be tough for Perrin but he is another high-floor underdog that can be played in all formats. | |||||
| Wu Yanan | 7900 | Lucie Pudilova | Risky | +100 | +550 |
| Pudilova is back in the UFC for her second time after a disappointing first run with the promotion. Wu has started to wrestle a little more of late and if either of the two fighters is to get a takedown it's Wu, but it's unlikely either of them is, going to be looking to chain wrestle. It will be tough for Wu to get on optimal even with a win, but she has a high floor for cash games. | |||||
| Luke Rockhold | 7500 | Paulo Costa | Risky | +295 | +550 |
| If Rockhold wants to stay safe in this fight he needs to try to get Costa down. Costa hasn’t shown any ability to get off his back if he gets taken down, so hopefully, Rockhold has the fight IQ to take the path of least resistance. | |||||
| Ange Loosa | 7800 | AJ Fletcher | Risky | +130 | +400 |
| Loosa can keep a pace and has shown good wrestling defense. If he keeps it standing he likely wins the fight. His score on DK could be impacted negatively if Fletcher can hold him against the cage or control him for periods of time, so this play should be strictly used in GPPs. | |||||
| Daniel Da Silva | 7600 | Victor Altamirano | Risky | +145 | +250 |
| Da Silva likely loses the fight, but his path to victory is an early finish. At $7600 he has nearly the same odds as Usman to finish the fight inside the distance, so his upside is massive if he can connect with something early. | |||||
| Marcin Tybura | 7200 | Alexandr Romanov | Risky | +280 | +650 |
| Tybura has some size on Romanov, but I don’t think it is going to be enough to change how the fight plays out. He is a KO or bust play. | |||||
| Leonardo Santos | 7300 | Jared Gordon | Risky | +225 | +400 |
| Another fighter who has the potential for a high score by ending the fight early. Santos has power in his hands to go along with numerous BJJ credentials. It's worth noting that Santos was the last fighter to hit the scales this week and looked drained. I normally don't look too heavily into how people look on the scales but for someone who is a notoriously fast starter that fades the longer the fight goes, this isn't going to help him. Santos needs to get this fight done early or he is going to be in for a long night against the pace Gordon brings. | |||||
Sample DFS Lineup
UFC 278 Usman vs Edwards Live Dogs
Perrin, Santos, Edwards
UFC 278 Usman vs Edwards Stats and Picks
Kamaru Usman | vs | Leon Edwards |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 20-1-0 | Record | Record: 19-3-0 (1 NC) |
9 | Knockouts | 6 |
1 | Subs | 3 |
-345 | Vegas Odds | +285 |
Paulo Costa | vs | Luke Rockhold |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 13-2-0 | Record | Record: 16-5-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 6 |
1 | Subs | 8 |
-360 | Vegas Odds | +295 |
Jose Aldo | vs | Merab Dvalishvili |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 31-7-0 | Record | Record: 14-4-0 |
17 | Knockouts | 3 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
+115 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
Wu Yanan | vs | Lucie Pudilova |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 13-5-0 | Record | Record: 13-7-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 2 |
5 | Subs | 2 |
+100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
Tyson Pedro | vs | Harry Hunsucker |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 8-3-0 | Record | Record: 7-5-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 3 |
5 | Subs | 4 |
-730 | Vegas Odds | +530 |
0 | ||
Marcin Tybura | vs | Alexandr Romanov |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 22-7-0 | Record | Record: 16-0-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 6 |
6 | Subs | 9 |
+280 | Vegas Odds | -380 |
Leonardo Santos | vs | Jared Gordon |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 18-6-1 | Record | Record: 18-5-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 6 |
9 | Subs | 8 |
+225 | Vegas Odds | -265 |
Sean Woodson | vs | Luis Saldana |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 16-7-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 9 |
1 | Subs | 5 |
-340 | Vegas Odds | +280 |
AJ Fletcher | vs | Ange Loosa |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-3-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 5 |
4 | Subs | 1 |
-155 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
Amir Albazi | vs | Francisco Figueiredo |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 14-1-0 | Record | Record: 13-4-1 (1 NC) |
4 | Knockouts | 3 |
8 | Subs | 8 |
-460 | Vegas Odds | +370 |
Aoriqileng | vs | Jay Perrin |
$8500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 22-9-0 | Record | Record: 10-5-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 2 |
1 | Subs | 4 |
#N/A | Vegas Odds | +115 |
Daniel Da Silva | vs | Victor Altamirano |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 11-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 1 |
6 | Subs | 4 |
+145 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
UFC 278 Usman vs Edwards Best Fighter Nicknames
- Aoriqileng “The Mongolian Murderer”
- Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili
- Alexander “King Kong” Romanov
Check out our list of the best, and most trusted sports betting and fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state.
Keep the UFC MMA DFS winning going! Check out our partners over on PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy, Monkey Knife Fight & join our FREE Discord!