WinView Games Playbook: Yankees vs Tigers - August 31

Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees

New York Yankees -360

Game Total: 8.0

Detroit Tigers

• The Tigers come in with an implied run total set at 1.91, which is lowest for any team on this slate, but the Tigers put up eight runs last night when they were big underdogs.
• The Tigers come in with some of the worst numbers in the league vs right-handed pitchers this season, with a .289 team wOBA and a .136 team ISO.
• They are among the worst in the league for both hitting and pitching categories. They are 28^th in runs scored, 24^th in batting average, 29^th in on-base percentage, 27^th in slugging percentage.
• They are 23^rd in ERA, 25^th in quality starts, 21^st in WHIP, and 24^th in batting average against.
• Jordan Zimmerman will be on the mound for the Tigers tonight, who is giving up 1.49 HR/9 to lefties and 1.75 HR/9 to righties this season.
• The Yankees come in with an implied run total set at 6.09, which is highest on the slate.
• Nicholas Castellanos is the Tigers best hitter, but he has only one hit in his last three games and has no RBIs in his last five games.
• The Tigers hit four home runs last night, which likely won’t happen again, as they are much weaker vs RHP than they are vs LHP, who they faced last night.

New York Yankees

• The Yankees have Luis Severino on the mound tonight, who has eight strikeouts and allowed two earned runs in each of his last two starts. He comes in with a 28% strikeout rate this season, which is third best of any pitcher on the slate.
• The Yankees have scored four or more runs in six of their last eight games, which is right in line with their 6.09 implied run total.
• The Yankees traded for Andrew McCutchen last night, but it’s not yet known if he will be making his debut tonight.
• Giancarlo Stanton hit his 300^th home run last night, which was his first home run in 10 games and as we know, home runs usually come in bunches for him.
• Luke Voit has two home runs in his last five games and should continue to draw the start, despite this being a righty vs right matchup.
• Gleyber Torres has two home runs in his last four games and has a four-game hitting streak. He is continuing to improve after struggling coming back from the DL.  

Pre-Game Props

1) NYY batters combine to swing and miss more times than DET batters in the 1st Inning 

No on this one for me. Zimmerman has a 9.5% swinging strike rate this season compared to Severino’s 12.2% swinging strike rate.

2) Either team reaches scoring position in the 1st Inning 

Going with yes on this one, but it will be more on the Yankees side of things. Zimmerman has given up eight or more hits in three of his last four starts, so plenty of chances for them.

3) 2 or more DET batters see 3 or fewer pitches in the 1st Inning

This could go either way but I’m leaning towards Yes. Severino can shut hitters down and limit the walks with his 6% walk rate, so rarely gets deeper into counts.

4) DET Leadoff batter reaches a 2-2 count or takes the first 3 pitches

This one plays off the last question, so if you on the no fewer pitches, then you want to say no here. The odds are somewhat similar, so double down on the previous one.