Welcome back to the next edition of the fantasy baseball injury report where we take a look at players who suffered significant injuries in 2016 and have red flags all over them heading into the 2017 season.  These are impact fantasy players who may see their draft value slip so they can provide great value if you are patient enough to grab them when the time is right in a draft.  So without further ado, here is the next installment of the MLB pre-season walking wounded.

 

Homer Bailey (SP-CIN)

 

Injury – He returned from Tommy John surgery in 2016 and then suffered from biceps tendinitis late in the year which shut him down the last couple months of the season.  He then underwent surgery in February 2017 to remove bone spurs from his right elbow which will cost him the first few months of this season.

 

2016 Season – Bailey compiled a 2-3 record with a 6.65 ERA, 1.83 WHIP and 27 strikeouts in 23 innings over just six starts.

 

Reason For Optimism  

  • Bailey will be even further removed from his Tommy John surgery which increases his chances for a successful return once he manages to take the mound.
  • He turns 31-years old in May so he is still in the prime of his career and should physically be able to overcome all of the recent trauma to his pitching arm.
  • After securing an enormous contract with the Reds a few years ago, Bailey will be motivated to prove that he is healthy and give Cincinnati a return on their investment.

 

Reason For Concern

  • Multiple surgeries on his right elbow along with a biceps injury last year have casted serious doubts as to whether he can remain healthy and be an effective starting pitcher.
  • He won’t be back at least until June and by then the Reds will likely be cautious with him as they are not expected to compete this season.
  • Bailey’s only six starts in 2016 were abysmal so he has not had much success in the big leagues since 2014.

 

2017 OUTLOOK – The best thing Bailey has going for him is that he could be Christian Bale’s stunt double in another Dark Knight Batman movie.  Bailey was a highly-touted prospect early in his career and eventually emerged as a consistent starting pitcher putting together solid seasons in 2012-2013.  However, he never reached his ceiling despite the Reds giving him a lucrative long-term contract in 2014.  Now he is attempting to overcome Tommy John surgery along with biceps tendinitis and a surgical removal of bone spurs in his elbow.  Bailey was placed on the 60-day disabled list in February and is not expected to be back until June.  This makes him a very risk fantasy option with little upside.  He will likely go undrafted unless you are in a very deep league with ample DL slots available to stash players.  Bailey will have to prove he is healthy and effective which will not be possible for at least a couple months.  His best season was 2013 when he struck out 199 batters and had a career-best 3.49 ERA.  It seems unlikely that he will approach those numbers again, at least not for quite some time.  Bailey should be off your radar for fantasy drafts unless you can afford to stash him as depth for later in the season.

 

Michael A. Stein, Esq. is the Chief Justice of Fantasy Judgment, the industry's premier dispute resolution service, and co-host of the Fantasy Alarm Podcast.  You can contact him at michael.stein@fantasyjudgment.com or on Facebook and Twitter (@FantasyJudgment),