San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers -205

Games Total: 7

Game Play Predictions

San Francisco Giants

  • This is the 11th matchup between Madison Bumgarner and Clayton Kershaw , with both teams winning five of the previous 10 matchups.
  • Clayton Kershaw has a 2.00 ERA and 0.81 WHIP with eight walks and 78 strikeouts in his 10 matchups with Bumgarner.
  • The Giants have a .280 wOBA over the last seven days.
  • Buster Posey has a 13.5 percent walk rate and 10.6 percent strikeout rate against lefties this season. Posey is 25-for-105 with 18 strikeouts against Kershaw.
  • Andrew McCutchen is 10-for-33 with five strikeouts against Clayton Kershaw .
  • The rest of the Giants have struggled against Kershaw, including Evan Longoria , who is 2-for-10 with five strikeouts against Kershaw.
  • McCutchen has been awful lately, going 1-for-19 with eight strikeouts over the last seven days.
  • Allen Hanson has arguably been San Francisco’s best hitter of late, going 6-for-17 with 11 total bases over the last seven days.
  • The Giants have a .302 wOBA against lefties this season, 21st in MLB. Their 7.9 percent walk rate against lefties ranks 22nd.
  • If the Giants can knock Kershaw out of the game, they could have some success against the Dodger bullpen. Kenley Jansen is out with an irregular heartbeat, and starters Ross Stripling and Kenta Maeda will not be available out of the bullpen until Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
  • The Dodgers lost to the Rockies in walk-off fashion on Saturday and Sunday.

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Bumgarner has a career-high 9.6 percent walk rate this season. His 20.2 percent strikeout rate is his lowest since 2010.
  • Bumgarner has a 2.69 ERA, 3.59 FIP and 4.32 xFIP. His xFIP is the highest of his career.
  • Bumgarner’s 43.7 percent groundball rate is his highest since 2014.
  • The Dodgers have the third highest walk rate against lefties at 10.3 percent.
  • Their 22.4 percent strikeout rate against lefties ranks 14th.
  • The Dodgers have a .327 wOBA over the last seven days, though four of those games were at Coors Field.
  • Justin Turner is 10-for-23 over the last seven days, and he is currently working on a seven-game hitting streak.
  • Yasiel Puig is 7-for-19 with two stolen bases over the last seven days.
  • Many of the Dodgers’ right-handed bats are struggling right now. Manny Machado , Austin Barnes , Matt Kemp , Chris Taylor , Enrique Hernandez, Joc Pederson , Brian Dozier and Yasmani Grandal are batting .150 combined over the last week.
  • Enrique Hernandez has been quite good against bumgarner in his career, going 15-for-33 with 32 total bases.
  • Cody Bellinger has a 28.4 percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers this season. He is 10-for-19 with a home run over the last seven days.

 

Pre-Game Props

  1. A batter from either team reaches a 2-0 count in the 1st Inning.

YES. The payouts are relatively even, though you still get a slight advantage going with Yes. As we noted above, the Dodgers know how to take their walks against lefties, and Bumgarner is walking more batters than ever before.

  1. Either team records 2 or more base hits in the 1st inning

This question pays out x4.5 for yes and just 1.5 for no. It is really three times more likely that neither team records two base hits? I think so. NO.

  1. A batter from either team reaches base on something other than a base hit in the 1st inning.

This basically means a walk, HBP, error or fielder’s choice. Bumgarner has a career-high 9.6 percent walk rate this season, and the Dodgers have the third highest walk rate against lefties at 10.3 percent. This is tied (with question 6) for the highest payout of the Pre-Game Props, and I’m going YES.

  1. SF batters combine to foul off 4 or more pitches in the 1st Inning.

NO. I only think three SF batters are coming to the plate in the first inning, and a couple of those at-bats may only last a couple of pitches. If the prop involved LAD batters, that would be a different story.

  1. 2 or more SF batters reach a 1-0 count in the 1st Inning.

NO. Clayton Kershaw has thrown a first-pitch strike in 69.4 percent of at-bats this season. The payout favors Yes slightly, but not enough for me to pick it. If I thought 5+ batters would come to the plate in the first inning, I might change my thinking.

  1. A SF baserunner reaches third base or farther in the 1st Inning

NO. As I mentioned above, Yes has the highest payout of the pre-game props, but this seems extremely unlikely, no matter the odds. The Giants have been below average against lefties this season, and Clayton Kershaw has a 2.08 ERA the first time through the lineup. Out of 153 batters faced the first time through, he has allowed 13 extra base hits.

  1. SF leadoff batter singles or strikes out.

As we mentioned in the previous answer, an extra base hit is pretty unlikely. Kershaw has a 28.8 percent strikeout rate the first time through the order and his opponents are batting .214. Obviously not all of the hits are singles, but I still think we have a roughly 40 percent chance of a single or strikeout to lead off the game. Even if you think the odds are slightly less since Andrew McCutchen is likely leading off, I still think you have to take YES and the x4.1 payout.