Monday’s slate features a lot of really strong offenses with nice matchups, and that is the case even if you don’t include the Washington Nationals against Scott Feldman in the lone early game. While I usually like to fade the more expensive, obvious stacks in favor of cheaper stacks I think will be less popular, that may not be the case Monday for a couple of reasons.
The first reason I am okay paying for an expensive stack is Brent Suter. He has looked legit both as a starter and reliever this season, with a 2.96 ERA and 2.78 FIP. He even managed to escape Yankee Stadium largely unscathed in his last out. If you like Brent Suter at Pittsburgh as much as I do, paying up for the Astros or Rockies suddenly becomes a lot easier.
The other reason to consider a more expensive stack is that they will all likely have lower ownership because there are so many to choose from. This article lists seven stacks between my picks and the others receiving votes, and there are a couple more you could talk me into pretty easily. With so many options, the hope is the popular stacks are a bit less popular than they otherwise might be.
Here are my stacks for Monday, July 17, listed in order of preference:
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners (Ariel Miranda, L)
Miranda allowed four earned runs on five hits in 7.1 innings at home against the Astros last month, so this isn’t exactly a no-brainer. That being said, he has allowed six earned runs in two of his last five starts, and the Mariners’ bullpen has a 4.51 FIP. There is certainly some potential here, and that is even before you take into account Houston’s ridiculously good offense. The Astros have the fifth-best home OPS in baseball, just behind the Rockies and Yankees, but they have the best OPS against lefties.
Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles (Chris Tillman, R)
The Rangers are near the top of this list because they thread the needle of being a pretty good offense with a very good matchup while not costing nearly as much as some of the teams further down this list. Chris Tillman has a 6.17 FIP this season, with a .419 wOBA against righties and a .445 wOBA against lefties. Tillman has allowed at least nine baserunners in eight consecutive games. Baltimore’s bullpen has a 4.53 FIP, and they have thrown 15.2 innings over the last three days. This game has the potential to get ugly quickly.
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres (Luis Perdomo, R)
The Rockies have an .834 OPS at home this season. The Padres’ bullpen has a 4.49 ERA this season, so if Colorado can get to Perdomo, the Rockies could have a big game. Blackmon, LeMahieu and Arenado all have at least one hit in each of their three games since the All-Star break, which doesn’t bode well for Perdomo. Of Colorado’s projected starters, only Gerardo Parra and Tony Wolters are batting worse than .300 against Luis Perdomo.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins (Tom Koehler, R)
If Tom Koehler was facing a real major league offense, it would be the top stack of the day. The good news is a Phillies stack won’t cost you much, which is useful if you want to play Lance McCullers or Stephen Strasburg. Koehler has a 6.63 FIP this season, and he is allowing a .491 wOBA to left-handed batters.
As for the actual hitters in your stack, much will depend on the starting lineup. Odubel Herrera and Daniel Nava have split the leadoff duties with Aaron Altherr out, but Herrera could be a strong play no matter where he bats as he is 5-for-12 with two home runs since the All-Star break. Freddy Galvis is the one constant in the lineup, batting second, and it is hard to imagine a Phillies stack without him.
Others Receiving Votes: