NASCAR DFS Weather Guard Truck Race Playbook & Top Picks

The Craftsman Truck Series is back after a week off. What better place to get trucks under the lights than Bristol Motor Speedway! So far this season the Chevys have reigned supreme. Nicholas Sanchez won the first race of the year at Daytona. Kyle Busch followed it up with a win for Spire Motorsports the next week at Atlanta. And two weeks ago, Rajah Caruth scored his first career win at Vegas. That’s two wins for Spire Motorsports. You can consider it three since they have an alliance with Sanchez’s team. But this week we get short track action at Bristol Motor Speedway. For the third time already this year, we get Kyle Busch racing in the Craftsman Truck Series. To no surprise, he is pricy. So let’s take a look at how previous races have played out and get an idea which drivers we should have our eye on for Saturday’s Weather Guard Truck Race for our NASCAR DFS lineups.

If you’re new here, Bristol is a half-mile track with some steep banking. It’s a unique track and we’ll see laps tick off very fast. We want as many dominator points as possible for our NASCAR DFS lineups Saturday night. 200 laps mean we probably see 120-ish dominator points. But be mindful, this is still the Truck Series on a short track. There’s no run-off and minimal space to maneuver. A truck in the wall or a spin will bring out a caution. The competitors in bad equipment are also bad drivers as fate would have it. So we don’t want to target too many cheap drivers starting deep in the field for fear they fall multiple laps down and fail to make up that ground.

Whereas the Cup Series has typically seen the winner of this race come from the top eight, we’ve had more wiggle room with the Truck Series. The last four winners have started from P17, P7, P6, and P11. Mind you, Christian Eckes had the best truck in last Fall’s race from the pole. But he just didn’t lock down the win despite leading 150 laps. In three of the last four races at Bristol we’ve seen one driver go for over 100 laps led. The outlier being the 2022 race in the Fall where four different drivers led at least 25 laps. At least one driver from the front row has fared pretty well here and gotten out front for laps led.

Passing is possible here if you can avoid an issue on pit road or losing laps. In the race last September, six drivers started P20 or deeper in the field and finished in the top 15 and there were only four cautions for 33 laps. Among those drivers that scored well were Nicholas Sanchez, Jake Garcia, Stewart Friesen, and even Matt Crafton snuck in and finished 16^th. It can be a little tough to gauge who can move up and you do need to take a few chances and hope you find an underpriced driver that avoids destruction. The 2022 race saw four drivers start outside the top 25 and finish in the top 15. But again those four were Zane Smith, Parker Kligerman, John Hunter Nemechek, and randomly Kaden Honeycutt. Take the PD if it’s there with good drivers.

Now the big elephant in the room for this race will be Kyle Busch ($15,000). We take the same approach as Vegas. Sprinkle in some exposure but don’t go overboard. His heavy price tag has actually priced other drivers down and I’ll touch on that below. Busch has an easier path to paying off his Bristol price tag than his Vegas price tag because there are more laps to lead. However, he does need to be up front to collect the dominator points and this truck wasn’t worth the price at Vegas. So be mindful of your exposure. I don’t consider him a lock in any format until we see how qualifying shakes out later this afternoon. So let’s take a look at the other drivers I have my eye on for the Weather Guard Truck Race NASCAR DFS lineup picks.

Weather Guard Truck Race Practice Notes

Weather Guard Truck Race Core Driver Picks

Top-Price Core Plays

Corey Heim ($10,000)

So Kyle Busch is $15,000 on DraftKings this week. Heim is second at $10,000. Busch can hit value given that there are 200 laps and 120+ dominator points available. However, this Spire Motorsports ride wasn’t all that impressive at Vegas two weeks ago. He’s not in his KBM equipment anymore so we’re still trying to flush out how good the truck is with a larger sample size. So I’ll pivot to Heim. Heim won this race last Fall despite not being in the best ride. But in two races at Bristol, he’s finished first and 10^th. We know there is considerable dominator potential here, but he’s qualified outside the top 15 in all three races this year. Strangely enough he’s also finished third in each race as well. But we know the equipment is very strong and he can get the precious dominator points. You play Busch at your own risk given the pricing, but Heim is a confidence play either way ahead of qualifying. Update: Again with an underwhelming qualifying effort. Still has win equity and PD to boot. We can assume his truck will get stronger as the race progresses.

Christian Eckes ($9,800)

Eckes is $9,800 on DraftKings but the third-most expensive driver on the slate. DraftKings is really daring people to play Busch at $15,000 but at least we’ve seen Eckes historically run well here. Eckes started on the pole in the Fall and finished second, but he led 150 laps to push him to a huge score. In three races here he’s never finished worse than 12^th. He did okay at Vegas a couple weeks back, but didn’t get the dominator points we were anticipating and he’s qualified well each of the last two races. Given that it’s not a dirt race, I am banking on him showing up with a fast ride, hopefully one with the same setup as last Fall since it’s possible the weather/conditions are similar to what we get Saturday night. Update: Starts on the pole. Get ready for him to be popular.

Ty Majeski ($9,600)

I gave some consideration to other drivers like Zane Smith ($9,500), Grant Enfinger ($9,300), and Tyler Ankrum ($9,000). We’ll see what happens in qualifying, but it just feels like Majeski is due for a dominant performance any race now. Smith has track history here, as does Enfinger. Ankrum seems poised to score a win at some point this year. But I’ll trust Majeski for the equipment and the fact he won here in 2022. On top of that he led 40 laps at Vegas two weeks ago. We keep an open mind ahead of qualifying and we adjust as necessary. But the win equity and performance at Vegas lead me to believe Majeski can grab another win at Bristol.

Grant Enfinger ($9,300)

I'll be completely honest, I'm still not sold on Enfinger in this equipment. But he qualified P13 and he decent long run speed but mind you, not all the trucks stayed out for 15-20 consecutive laps in practice. But he offers position differential and has a win here on his resume. I just hope we aren't overpaying for a team that hasn't been great historically.

Mid-Price Core Plays

Rajah Caruth ($8,700)

While I have some reservations about Kyle Busch’s ride, Caruth scored his first career win at Vegas a couple weeks ago driving for the same team. Spire has laid claim to winning the first three races if you also consider their affiliation/partnership with Rev Racing and Nicholas Sanchez. He wrecked at Bristol two years ago, but did finish sixth in this race last Fall with GMS Racing. Caruth has finished second (Daytona), eighth (Atlanta), and first (Vegas) to start the year. The price jump of $2,000 may scare some people but he’s been a DFS gem each week to start the year. If Spire is truly turning the corner and emerging as a threat to the other big teams, then Caruth may still be a bit underpriced at the end of the day. Update: May have over-qualified the ride but the Spire Motorsports trucks look fast. May not garner a lot of ownership at this price. I'm slightly downgrading him.

Nicholas Sanchez ($8,300)

Kind of an odd price tag if we’re being honest. He didn’t have a great showing at Vegas two weeks ago, but he was stellar at Daytona (winner) and Atlanta (finished fifth). Sanchez has only raced Bristol once in the Truck Series. That came last Fall when he started P35 and grabbed a top 10 finish. Given that he’s arguably in comparable equipment to Kyle Busch and Rajah Caruth, it’s a friendly price tag since he’ll be in some of the best equipment in the field. Update: Qualified P2 next to Eckes so one of the two should jump out and lead laps early.

Taylor Gray ($7,900)

Pricing is kind of off for this race. Only 11 drivers are priced over $8,000 for this race. So we have some value opening up and you can actually build a sound and balanced lineup if you fade Busch. Taylor Gray has back-to-back top five finishes and is only $7,900 for this race. The overall results for Gray at Bristol aren’t great. However, six months ago with TRICON, he did grab a top five finish with a 106.7 driver rating. We’ve seen some growth early on in the year from Gray and we should take advantage of the discount while we have it. Update: Qualified P3 so it's a slight downgrade. I'll mix him into two builds: one with Eckes and one with Sanchez in hopes of hitting something unique. Layne Riggs ($8,200) is a good pivot if you can afford him. He qualified outside the top 25.

Matt Crafton ($7,700)

There will certainly be some additional drivers added after qualifying. It wasn’t easy leaving a lot of drivers in this range out of the write-up. But Crafton was incredibly fast at Vegas a couple weeks ago. Pains me to say that because I was severely under exposed. C’est la vie. He certainly has plenty of experience at Bristol which is nice to invest in at just $7,700 and he still drives for a strong organization. In 21 races at Bristol he has 14 top 10 finishes and five top five finishes. He hasn’t really had a “bad” race yet to start the 2024 season and he’s gone for 40+ fantasy points in two races so far. If he offers enough PD there’s plenty of top 10 equity to lock him into your lineups. Update: Qualified P20 so he should be in line for heavy ownership at a track where experience has some weight.

Stewart Friesen ($7,400)

He will likely be popular because of the bad qualifying effort. He started P24 here in the Fall and finished 14th. And in his last six races he has four finishes in the top seven. Chase Purdy might be a better pivot for Tournaments in this range. His equipment is arguably better and he'll likely have less ownership.

Value-Price Core Plays

William Sawalich ($6,900)

This track may not play to his strengths. But at the end of the day, he’s a talented young driver that’s still getting better. He ran six races a year ago with TRICON and grabbed three top 10’s on the shorter, flat tracks (Martinsville, Richmond, and IRP). Bristol is a short track, but it’s hardly flat and he finished three laps down in this race last Fall. However, there is talent here and he’s driving for TRICON. The equipment alone is enough to pay this price tag. My other concern with Sawalich is that he probably qualifies too well. He started in the top 12 in five-of-six races last year. If that’s the case he’s still a GPP play, but we’ll look elsewhere for Cash games. Update: Qualified P19. Love it. Also, don't sleep on Jake Garcia ($7,000) who will start in front of Sawalich. I'll be mixing in both.

Bayley Currey ($6,600)

This is easily a more reasonable price tag for Currey. At times last year he snuck into the $8,000 range and even this year he was priced in the $7,000 range to start. But after some poor results we’ll look to see if he can bounce back at the ripe price of $6,600. In two races at Bristol with Niece Motorsports, he has a pair of top 15 finishes. Currey only ran 11 races with Niece last year, but he finished 13^th or better in six of them. So at least we know he has that upside and it’s certainly possible he provides another strong showing at Bristol. Update: You likely aren't going here in Cash games but he qualified P12 and should be able to stay on the lead lap if things go his way.

Timmy Hill ($5,900)

Timmy Hill probably emerges as a value PD play for Saturday’s race. I’m fine playing him in Cash games, but if the field is flocking to him because of his resume then we should pivot in GPP’s. Hill actually drives pretty well at Bristol. We look to Hill at superspeedways, and strangely enough, Bristol. In five Truck Series races at Bristol he’s finished 26^th or better with three top 20 finishes. In a four-race span in the Xfinity Series from 2019 to 2020, he finished top 20 in sub-par equipment. It’s not easy to move up here, but Hill is a guy that can keep the ride clean and let others wreck out. So I’m fine paying down in Cash games, but he’s $5,900 for a reason and if he busts I’d want to be underweight in Tournaments. Bret Holmes ($5,800) might be my preferred pivot in GPP’s, but we’ll see how qualifying shakes out. I don’t want to go punting too much at a track like Bristol. Update: Hill qualified P27 which was to be expected. Holmes qualified P24. I'll mix in both but prefer Holmes in Tournaments and Hill in Cash games. Conner Jones can get some love as well at $6,000 with the better starting spot. But we've seen him look good in practice and qualify well then throw it back at us with a poor run during the race.

Weather Guard Truck Race NASCAR DFS Lineup Picks