NASCAR DFS: Hollywood Casino 400 Playbook

What is there to say about Larson? This isn’t the first time we’ve started his entry with that question this year either. He’s on the pole and at a track he’s shown speed at before. Not to mention he was on the pole last week and didn’t relinquish the lead very much. While he punched his ticket to the championship already it does behoove him to limit the chances for his competitors to win their way into Phoenix and force chaos at Martinsville next weekend.

Hamlin just keeps being Mr. Consistent this year even without being dominating any longer. In fact if we didn’t have the playoffs, Hamlin and Larson would be a dead heat in points right now despite Larson having more wins. The last few runs here have been so-so for him though as he started P20 in May and only got up to P12 by race’s end and last Fall he started P7 and finished P15. Given the price tag he’s only GPP eligible because we need him to be his best to hit value or he’s not worth playing.

Busch won the race here in May, aptly named the Buschy McBusch Race. Outside of that win he’s posted two other top-fives and a top-15 at this track and nine top-10s at similar races since 2020. The question with Busch isn’t really ability, it’s consistency and whether his team will adequately set up the car for that particular race weekend. In the last 10 intermediate tracks this year he ranks second in Green Flag Speed and we’re going to need every bit of that speed this week at this price as he’ll need to lead laps to hit value even with a top-five finish.

Elliott is currently below the cutoff line for the championship, though not by much. He will need a solid run here to solidify his path to Phoenix to defend his title. Good for him then that he’s done so well here in the past five races with three top-fives and tied for the best average finish at 5.8. That being said, he’s not been the type of driver to go out and dominate races this year though but rather just get solid finish after solid finish. Unfortunately we’re going to need dominator points from him this week to really hit value. It’s possible for a handful of each but that’s likely all we get from the 9-car.

Bowman will be the chalk play of the slate almost guaranteed. He’s starting in the mid-20s, has a very good record here including an average finish of 8.4 and has been speedy in this package. He does need a top-10 to hit value, but that’s well within his capabilities.

After last week do we really have to explain this? He was one of the two fastest cars on the track at all times and now at a similar track the speed should carry over. Let’s also not overlook that he has four top-10s here in the last five races either. Starting P9 gives him some PD as well as he could finish top-five pretty easily.

While he doesn’t always have the best finishes to speak of here, he’s clearly had the speed to get good finishes. How do I know? He’s fourth in the field in Top-15 Rate at 92.5-percent in the last five races with just one top-10 to his credit. He ranks sixth in fastest laps at nearly 16 a race but still just the one top-10. Starting P2 this week we’ll need laps led from him to hit value as well as his best-ever finish, but it’s doable given the speed in the 12-car this year.

The only driver in the field with four top-five finishes here in the last five races, he’s tied for the best average finish in that span at 5.8. He’s also been quite consistent at this distance this year as well with a 5.6 average finish in the last five races, which is fourth-best in the Cup series. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Keselowski pull off the sneaky win this weekend and make the championship race in a year where no one expected him to and with his consistency at this track and in this package, he could do just that this weekend.

Harvick showed good speed at Texas last weekend even though he didn’t win, he clearly had a top-five car. He’s been capable of running up front here even when he’s been in the midst of a cold streak. There’s also a sneaky narrative here too...even though he’s out of the playoffs, if he manages to win for the first time this year, he could make it very hard on some drivers to make it to the title race as everything would ride on Martinsville. This is also potentially the last reasonable shot for him to win this year as etiquette-wise he likely doesn’t push for one in the next two races with the championship on the line for others.

Yes, Logano hasn’t been great in this package this year and the last five races at this distance hasn’t been good to him with an average finish of 20.8. That being said, he came into this race last year having not won since Phoenix (the fourth race of the year) and pulled off the win to lock himself into the championship. Could we be in for that again? It’s possible though we need a top-five from him to hit value. He’s a GPP play simply for the hope that he puts it all together for the last time in this package this year.

How are we not supposed to look at Reddick at a track that can favor the high line and is an intermediate? Starting P12 is similar to where he rolled off the grid in May when he started P11 and finished P7 and Reddick has shown good speed in each of the last five races this year with five straight top-15s. That streak includes three straight top-10s. He’s in line for another good race on Sunday and don’t be shocked if he’s in the running for a top-five toward the end of the race.

You wanna guess where Chastain started here in May when he finished P14? He started P24 and wouldn’t you know it, that’s where he’s starting on Sunday. Chastain has had impressive speed in the 42-car in the second half of the season but that hasn’t always gotten him the finishes he may have deserved. Chastain is likely to be popular with his starting spot and the recent speed but he’s still better suited for GPPs than cash given the volatility of his recent lack of deserved better finishes.

Bell started P11 and finished P3 last week at Texas but has been a bit of a mixed bag over the last 10 total races and even at the comparable intermediates in that span. Last Fall here he did finish in the top-10 but the other two races here he’s been outside the top-20 for various reasons. If he replicates Texas, on Sunday, he provides excellent value on a tricky slate for pricing.

A return to the playbook for Mr. Wallace this week. He did have a top-20 here last Fall and has three top-20s in the last five intermediate races this year. Starting P27 gives him some solid PD if he can pull off another top-20 finish. That being said, this play isn’t necessarily for the faint of heart as he’s said that he's struggled to figure out the best lines at Kansas previously.

The super-sub. Kligerman has been known to sub in in part-time roles the last few years and come up with good finishes most of the time. In his last run here, he finished P29 which is a hefty 11 spots better than where he’s starting on Sunday. Here’s the problem with Kligerman though, at least on DK, he’s too expensive. At $7,100 he needs 35.5 points to hit 5x meaning he needs to finish P23 or better. That being said, he’s a great option on FD as a free square to load up with a few $12K or higher drivers.

Good ol’ wrecky. It’s true that his finishes can come down to a flip of a coin most week, and especially here the last four races in which he’s finished P16 twice and wrecked out twice. Starting P28 if he can keep it clean there is plenty of PD upside here as he can finish around P15 with his skill and equipment. However, that’s always a bigger “if” for him.

We’re not going narrative here with Matty D. We’re simply going with results. He’s finished P15 or better in three of the last four races here including P12 last Fall and P4 this Spring after starting P5 in that race. He’s been able to bring speed in bunches at intermediates this year with some convincing finishes and with a starting spot of P15 he might go a tad overlooked but at this price that’s dangerous, especially in GPPs.

Briscoe has been under-the-radar impressive the last few races this year with a few top-15 finishes to his credit including last week. At Vegas a few weeks ago he started P19 and finished P14. Starting P19 with a top-20 to his credit here in May, gives him the shot at a solid finish once more in the 14-car. With some cheaper guys starting a bit further back, he might be less played than we think.

Buescher has three top-15s here in the last five races including a P8 finish here in May. Buescher has been able to put it together for 1.5-mile tracks this year with three top-20s in the last five and a few spots of PD. Starting just outside the top-20 gives him some decent PD upside for either format.

Custer has been up and down this year to be sure just like the rest of his SHR teammates. He also didn’t look that convincing here in May dropping back 14 spots. That being said, he’s starting far enough back to give him the benefit of the doubt and he’s finished a few spots better than this starting spot in the last five intermediates this year. Let’s also not forget that he finished P14 here last Fall after starting P13 and finishing P7 last Spring. He may be a bit under the radar but there’s still value here.

Preece can always be a wildcard. Starting this far back and averaging a 24.4 finish in the last five intermediate races this year as well as averaging a finish nearly six spots better than where he’s starting at his last few Kansas gives credence to playing him at this price. We’re on the hunt for PD and he’s got it and there are few drivers in this price range to trust; he’s one.