NASCAR DFS Cook Out 400 Playbook & Top Picks

The shortest track on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule is up on Sunday. The Cook Out 400 at Martinsville is the third short track race in the last four races this season. However, that doesn’t mean we’re talking about the same style of track overall or the same racing strategy. We’ll talk about how to build NASCAR DFS lineups for Martinsville, and how to use proper strategy here. We’ll analyze DraftKings and FanDuel scoring trends too. On top of all of that we’ll give you the top plays for each salary tier for DFS as well. All that coming in the Cook Out 400 playbook.

Martinsville Speedway Race Trends

When we look at the last five races at Martinsville there are some interesting trends that appear. The first thing that stands out is the combination of double-digit position differential drivers with top-10 finishers. We see on average more than 5.5 drivers a race who move up at least 10 spots and 42-percent of the top-10 finishers coming from outside the top-12. That means drivers can move up here, mainly due to pit strategy and chaos, but it also means that we have to be careful which spots we target for PD as we’ll see in a minute.

Lead lap finishers average just about half the field which means if we target a driver starting too far back they could be capped in PD by being lapped. At a track as short as Martinsville, lapping can happen quickly, especially if a few cars are far faster than the rest. Speaking of lead lap cars, you have to be there to lead laps right? We’ve typically seen two drivers top 100 laps led in the races here. We’ve also seen an average of three drivers top 50 laps led. So when we’re building lineups, keep in mind we’ll need two laps led dominators at least.

Practice And Qualifying Results At Martinsville

Below are the practice and qualifying results for the Cook Out 400 from Saturday. This is a way to see who may move up well and who may hold their spot throughout the race and be a value play.

DraftKings Scoring Trends At Martinsville

This chart shows the average scoring by starting position over the last five Martinsville races. It’s designed to show the strategy of building lineups and not necessarily what spots always do well regardless of drivers.

FanDuel Scoring Trends At Martinsville

This chart shows the average scoring by starting position over the last five Martinsville races. It’s designed to show the strategy of building lineups and not necessarily what spots always do well regardless of drivers.

NASCAR DFS Strategy For Cook Out 400

So when we take into account everything above, what is the DFS strategy for NASCAR this weekend? Well, it’s going to be similar to that of Richmond last week. We’re looking for drivers who can lead chunks of laps and drivers who can finish highly. However, unlike Richmond, we’re not going quite as back of the field as we did there. Over the last 10 races at Martinsville there have been nearly nine (8.9) cautions a race from both stage cautions and incident/debris cautions. That accounts of an average of 63 caution laps a race that we won’t be getting fast laps for and allows teams to play the pit strategy card.

In general, we’re looking for two laps led dominators and the rest of the build filled with drivers who can finish top-15 or better. Looking at the race trends table though you’ll see that just over a third of laps led come from outside the top-10 starting spots here. So for laps led we can look for drivers who can move up and hold the lead later in the race rather than having to get all of them from inside the top-five. For Cash we’re looking for drivers further back with more PD, but not too far back, and for GPPs we’re looking to be more contrarian and starting more drivers inside the top-20 who can hold their spot and get us good finish position points.

Top Tier Salary Plays

Kyle Larson

Nabbing the pole by .001 is something, but that pole spot likely gives him the upper hand in leading laps in the first stage. Larson has been good here of late and with the speed in the car he should hold a top-five spot with a shot at dominating laps led which makes the value worth it to play him.

Martin Truex Jr.

Truex is still pissed about last week’s restart. That kind of motivation is what he likely needs to get into victory lane here once more. After all the track is named after him right? Seriously though, Truex has top-five speed in the 19-car and is starting P4 which should be enough to have him lead laps mid-race and hang out for a top-five finish.

Christopher Bell

Bell has won here from starting in a similar spot. He has the practice speeds on his side and simply missed a corner in qualifying that kept him from starting higher in the field. Heck, just last week he moved up from P29 to P6. Bell isn’t likely to lead a bunch of laps but if he can finish top-eight there’s enough value here to make Bell worth the play.

William Byron

Byron has four top-10s in the six Next Gen races at Martinsville including a win and has top-five speed this week. Starting outside the top-10 on Sunday gives us nice PD upside from Byron and a sneaky shot at some laps led at the bottom of the top-tier of salaries.

Mid-Tier Salary Plays

Joey Logano

Logano is here because it’s too hard to ignore his history at Martinsville and similar tracks. He has posted an average finish just over 5.0 in the Next Gen era at the Paperclip and just over 6.0 over the 16 similar races to Martinsville since 2021. While the speed at practice wasn’t great, he was one of the fastest in his session, Group B, which counts for something. Starting P6 should keep him in the top-10 throughout the day and his racing style might have him competing for a win late.

Bubba Wallace

Wallace was nearly on pole, and I mean nearly — by .001 seconds. That speed wasn’t a fluke either as he posted the second-best speed at practice across multiple speed metrics. Wallace has been improving at short tracks and Martinsville has arguably been his best short track in his career. Now he has a car and a team capable of finishing in the top-five and challenging Kyle Larson for laps led. Don’t play him and Larson together in a build.

Ryan Preece

He’s a short track racer by nature. This is where he cut his teeth in grassroots racing. The speed in the 41-car was solid at practice and hung around for the longer runs too. He’s starting about where we wanted — P22 — with top-15 upside. There is room here for some PD and solid finish position points but not much else outside of a few fastest laps.

Value Tier Salary Plays

Daniel Suarez

This is a case where looking at underlying data is a good thing. Suarez is only one of nine drivers with multiple top-10 average running positions at Martinsville in the Next Gen races. That has to count for something right? The finishes haven’t shown the mid-race form but in general Suarez has had speed at the shorter, flatter tracks in the last year or so and he’s run well at Phoenix and Richmond this year as well. A top-15 is possible here.

Austin Dillon

The magic of a new crew chief is what we’re banking on this week. That and his decent practice speed and history here. The last time Justin Alexander was his crew chief here, he finished P3 in the Spring race. Is he doing that this weekend? Unlikely, but there is a top-20 finish capable in the 3-car. He could be underplayed thanks to a bad start to the year, but if things go his way, leverage could be on our side.

Corey Lajoie

Where did that speed come from? Seriously Lajoie, you’re not typically this quick on a short track but here we are with the best practice speeds in the faster session. Then qualifying happened and he dropped toward the back of the pack. If the practice speed is real, and he can harness that to move up on a track that’s tough to pass on, we could be looking at nice PD upside here. Lajoie doesn’t yet have a top-20 here in the Next Gen car but does have three P21 or P22 finishes.

Harrison Burton

We’ll give him one more shot. If he’s going to show up and rise to the pressure that’s on him it’s surely got to be at his team’s home track. I mean seriously, the workshop for Wood Brothers is like 15 minutes from the track. He’ll start P34 but ran just outside the top-20 at practice and has been better at shorter tracks in his career. Play in GPPs only though as he could just as easily poop the bed once more.

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