Andy's Frozen Custard 300 DFS Picks & NASCAR Playbook - Texas, 4/13

Saturday presents an opportunity for the NASCAR Xfinity Series to roll through Texas Motor Speedway. This is also a Dash 4 Cash race which kicked off during the short track portion of the schedule. Given how last week’s race at Martinsville went the eligible drivers for Saturday’s race are Sam Mayer, Sheldon Creed, Justin Allgaier, and Chandler Smith. Let’s take a look at the top NASCAR DFS lineup picks for Saturday afternoon’s Andy’s Frozen Custard 300!

Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 NASCAR DFS Lineup Picks

As mentioned numerous times ad nausea, this is not NASCAR’s best track for racing. Each year this track gets dunked on by drivers for producing a horrible product. Unfortunately, it did receive two races each year at one point in time. That has now been reduced to one, and we get it out of the way in April.

Texas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile track with mostly just one groove for racing and there isn’t a whole lot of tire wear. Plenty of arguments have been made to tear this place down and try something new. That complaint is falling on deaf ears unfortunately.

Saturday’s race goes green around 1:30pm ET and we have 200 laps on tap broken into 45-45-110 lap stages. 120-130 dominator points signal that we can probably consider two-dominator builds for this race. With the way practice and qualifying played out, the best drivers did find their way to starting up front. The mid-and-value tiers are where we’ll find our position differential.

You will need to be fast today or be the beneficiary of chaos in order to move up. A long green flag run will just allow the leader to take advantage of the clean air while the rest of the field jockeys for track position. 

Friday’s practice session did shed some light on who should be fast and competitive, and who may have not qualified their car as well. There are a variety of ways to build out and construct lineups so we may have more fun locking in our builds than actually watching this race.

Andy's Frozen Custard 300 Practice Notes

Top-Price Core Plays

Justin Allgaier ($11,000; Starting P6)

In general, it just seems like Allgaier is due for a win. We’ve started to see him get to the front and collect more dominator points in recent weeks. And if any driver can break this cold start to the season for Jr. Motorsports, it would be Allgaier.

Allgaier hasn’t won at Texas, despite a hefty amount of races here. But he does have four top five finishes in his last four races here and he dominated here last September to the tune of 133 laps led. In total, he’s led 359 laps in his last 10 races at Texas.

Allgaier was able to lay down the fastest single lap in practice and he followed that up with the second-best 10-lap average just behind Cole Custer. If there’s a time for JRM to get on the board, it could be this week based on what we’ve seen from Allgaier’s ride.

Cole Custer ($10,800; Starting P2)

Speaking of Custer, it’s easy to get excited about his upside this afternoon as you know the defending series champion should be sporty. Custer started on the pole for Vegas, and while he didn’t win the race, he finished second and had six fastest laps. Obviously not the performance we were expecting from a polesitter but a solid runner-up finish nonetheless.

He followed Vegas up by leading 61 laps at Phoenix and grabbing another top five. Last September he may have only finished sixth at Texas, but he was second and third in the first two stages and he led 28 laps as well.

The front row starting spot gives him a shot to get some early dominator points similar to Christian Eckes from last night’s race, so I anticipate his ownership being around 20-25% in tournaments.

Austin Hill ($10,500; Starting P13)

The top tier doesn’t offer a ton of place differential options. And that’s probably fine. We probably want to spend up on dominators in this range, but there’s some PD with Hill at the very least.

In this race two years ago he started P3 and finished fifth but he did lead 16 laps and he was the runner-up later that year in the playoffs. Hill grabbed a top five at both Vegas, Phoenix, and COTA after kicking the year off with a pair of wins at Daytona and Atlanta.

On a track like Texas, I certainly think he still possesses some win equity and RCR might have nailed the setup as his teammate won the pole. But I do expect Hill to move up and run in the top five most of the race so if you want a safe PD play for cash games, you can certainly go here. However, if you can afford it and want more dominator points, then Chandler Smith ($11,200; Starting P4) might be better suited for your lineups if you can afford him.

Mid-Price Core Plays

Jesse Love ($8,500; Starting P1)

There’s obvious interest in any polesitter at a track like Texas. Last night, Nicholas Sanchez finished third from the pole, but he managed to get ~15 dominator points along with a decent finish. Part of the struggle for Sanchez was that he couldn’t get a long green flag run with his lead otherwise he would have led more laps in stage one.

That same problem could be said for Love. This is the Xfinity Series and we shouldn’t assume these drivers can run a clean race. Another thing to consider is whether this team was trying to set the car up for qualifying trim. If that’s the case, then job well done.

Love showed superspeedway upside like his teammate early in the year. Vegas wasn’t a great showing for him, but he was second the next week at Phoenix and that has kicked off a run of four straight top 10 finishes. We’ll almost need the dominator points to offset any points he loses with negative PD. 

Parker Kligerman ($8,200; Starting P16)

Kligerman isn’t the greatest play, nor does he have the best ceiling. But I still operate as if this car is pretty solid. In this race two years ago, Tyler Reddick took this 48-car to victory lane at Texas Motor Speedway with 31 laps led.

Kligerman came on strong to close out the year and the intermediate performances improved as well. He had a hot streak on the road courses in the summer, but in the playoffs he was fourth at Kansas, second at Texas, and then seventh at Homestead. He’s had five straight finishes in the top 12 coming into this weekend and there’s potential for another top 10, possibly a top five. If he can sneak into the top five by the end of the race, that’ll likely put him in the optimal lineup.

Ryan Sieg ($7,800; Starting P14)

This tier is tricky and with so many PD options in this range and below, most will overlook Sieg. And this guy, surprisingly, has not been awful at Texas Motor Speedway throughout his career in the Xfinity Series.

In this race a year ago he started P17 and finished 11^th and the year prior he started P14 and finish ninth. In both races he had a driver rating of at least 80 and by Ryan Sieg’s standards that is actually pretty solid. But in 2021 at Texas he finished 14^th and 11^th and back in 2019 he grabbed a pair of top 10 finishes here.

This year has been more of the same of what we come to expect from Sieg. He’s had a top 15 car at times, but the most impressive run was at Vegas where he started P6 and finished seventh.

Parker Retzlaff ($7,500; Starting P29)

The mid-range and values are where we’re likely finding our position differential plays for Saturday’s race. We start with Parker Retzlaff who will certainly be a popular option given the price tag. Retzlaff hasn’t had the best performances at Texas, but the sample size is still small.

We’ve seen some growth from him this year with a pair of top five finishes at Daytona and Atlanta. Perhaps that’s an argument better suited for next week’s race. But the average running position on the more predictable tracks sticks out. But be weary, he’s failed to finish three of the last five races.

If anything else we take the position differential and hope he parlays it into a top 15. We’ll need a little chaos, but that’s part of NASCAR DFS. He’s basically paying off his price tag if he finishes 17^th. Possibly a shot to find leverage in a tournament? I might agree. But you can safely play him in cash games and get some exposure in other formats.

Value Price Core Plays

Shane Van Gisbergen ($7,200; Starting P33)

Not a play I think you need to slam into your lineups for tournaments. But SVG is probably okay for cash games. Texas isn’t a great place to try and learn the ropes of racing on an intermediate quad oval. Engine failure led him to a bad day at Vegas, but he was top 15 at Phoenix, Richmond, and Martinsville.

Now those tracks do not compare at all to Texas Motor Speedway. This is a tricky track with a terrible layout and lacks many grooves. But he also starts deep enough in the field where he’s easily paying off his price tag with a top 20 finish. 

He didn’t necessarily do anything noteworthy in practice either. You’re mostly just targeting the position differential and hope he doesn’t crap the bed. But we’ll offer some pivot options in the rest of the article in case you aren’t completely sold on SVG on an intermediate.

Matt DiBenedetto ($6,900; Starting P27)

Matty D is in a similar spot to what we were looking for two weeks ago at Richmond. Affordable? Check. Starting deep in the field? Check. Good enough driver to get in the top 20? Check. You can even make the argument he could get a top 15 finish in this spot.

He’s back with RSS Racing for Texas Motor Speedway after a disappointing run at Martinsville. Based on the practice results it looks like he easily has a top 20 car, but we didn’t get a good enough look at the long run speed.

DiBenedetto does have experience at this track. In three of his last four Cup Series races here he finished in the top 15 and seemed like he was able to hold his position. Even in the Truck Series two years ago he was able to get a top 10. You have to wonder if he may have something figured out with this track.

As a pivot in this range, I do think Josh Williams ($6,800; Starting P22) has some considerable upside. He’s managed to finish in the top 15 at Vegas, Richmond, and Martinsville this year and the car looked faster than where he qualified it.

Hailie Deegan ($5,700; Starting P20)

This isn’t a play that we necessarily need to be married to. And truthfully, this is strictly just a tournament-only recommendation. We’ve always known that Deegan has more comfort on the intermediates, specifically this 1.5-mile tri-and-quad ovals. 

Earlier this year she started P28 and finished 15^th at Vegas. Even in last year’s Truck Series race at Texas she finished sixth, but that race had plenty of carnage that was to her benefit. But even at a track like Kansas, she had four finishes of 17^th or better in the Truck Series including a top 12 last year.

I don’t like that she qualified P20. This AM Racing team is in the bottom tier of equipment, but they aren’t the absolute worst. She crushes value if she just finishes in the top 15.

Ryan Ellis ($4,900; Starting P36)

I’m not saying Ryan Ellis is good, but he’s probably $700 too cheap. He’s with Alpha Prime and, while it isn’t the best equipment, he can grab a top 25 here similar to the run he had at Vegas. He started P23 and finished 22^nd in that race. Not a horrible day but he returned 21 fantasy points on DraftKings. For this race he starts much deeper in the field.

He will likely be the popular punt option. Even casual DFS players know he should gain about nine spots on a bad day. He even managed to finish 13^th in this race last September.

He’ll return 4X value if he can just finish 29^th so I don’t hate being overweight on him because even if he busts and finishes right where he starts, that’s still five fantasy points and you can still cash with that production at $4,900.

NASCAR DFS Lineup Picks: Andy’s Frozen Custard 300