First off, I hope you all took advantage of the 142.82 gem handed to you last night. Winner! Okay, enough gloating, back to work.
Week ten in college football. Also known as “Statement Saturday” for many teams looking to make a statement to the committee, their fan bases and supporters. Us DFSers should view this as a statement week as well. We’ve had plenty of time to learn about these teams, find out who they really are and now it is time to strike. If you have consistently followed the Playbooks this year, from myself and Nick Dunning, we have had our share of successes and disappointments. The goal is to avoid the latter and maximize the former, right? This is the week to do it. We will focus again on the main slate on DraftKings and provide a lineup or two for you FanDuelers out there.
Looking at this main slate, we want to focus on the games that have the best chance to get “pointsy”. We’re looking hard at Syracuse/Wake Forest as the obvious choice and can certainly load up on the top options in that ACC shootout. This could set a record for number of plays in a game. I’m not kidding. We could look - to a lesser extent - at Ohio State/Nebraska and South Carolina/Ole Miss as others that could go back-and-forth a bit. The danger with loading up on games/teams with one-sided matchups is the potential for quick leads and benching/resting of top players later on. We are better off going with a close spread and getting a full game out of some players. That’s the balance we need to strike. Here are some options to build your lineups.
QB Dwayne Haskins | OSU | Neb | $9,800 | Risk: Very Low | Upside: Very High | |
You just can’t be without him and expect to win if the Buckeyes come out and do what they should to this Nebraska defense. Haskins is hitting on 71% of his passes this year and his 30:5 TD to INT ratio is just absurd. He doesn’t run like his predecessor and that is a small drawback to his game. As mentioned, this Cornhuskers defense does not have an answer for either the run or pass game and he’s worth every penny. | ||||||
QB Eric Dungey | Syr | @Wake | $8,400 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Very High | |
I’m not kidding when I say this game can and will get out of hand offensive. The total in Vegas is 76.5 and as crazy high as that is, it’s not high enough. The Orange have the 6th fastest pace and their opponent, the Deacs go the fastest in FBS. Throw in a Wake defense ranked 102nd overall and 119th against the pass, things should get out of hand. Dungey is a dual-threat option and it’s a surprise to see him upright this late in the season, we should take full advantage. | ||||||
QB Sam Hartman | Wake | Syr | $7,200 | Risk Medium | Upside: High | |
It just makes sense to put Hartman right after Dungey. The freshman has played enough football this year to qualify as a sophomore. His numbers aren’t exactly eye-popping, with a 55% completion percentage, 1,709 yards and 14 touchdowns to seven interceptions. This Wake offense is super-fast (1st in FBS) and while they lean run with the play calling, there is enough to go around. Oh, and he can run it too if he so chooses. Last week against Louisville he tucked it 12 times for 46 yards and a score. | ||||||
QB Adrian Martinez | Neb | @OSU | $7,800 | Risk: High | Upside: High | |
Surprisingly, the Buckeyes are 89th in Passing S&P+ per Bill Connelly and Football Outsiders. This opens an opportunity for the freshman Martinez to try to keep pace with the Ohio State offense and compile some stats and points. He’s coming off of a couple nice passing performances, including a 25-for-29 (86%!) for 276, 3 TD and no picks against Minnesota. Followed up by a 15/22 (68%) with 213, 2-1 against Bethune-Cookman before giving way. He even went 25-for-35 against Northwestern, though he made a couple of bad throws for picks. That 66% completion rate, combined with the running ability (83 for 408 and four scores) is just plain exciting. Compile.
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Other options: You could easily go with Oklahoma State’s Taylor Cornelius ($8,700) or Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence ($8,200) and be just fine. We also like Georgia Tech’s TaQuon Marshall ($8,100) who is now listed as probable and against the Tar Heels, he could put up huge numbers. Even South Carolina’s Jake Bentley ($6,900) against Ole Miss is a good option. Plenty of them this week at the QB position.
Avoiding: Penn State has a tough matchup against Michigan and therefore, we’re fading Trace McSorley. Utah’s Tyler Huntley is just a bit too inconsistent for our liking. Not touching Mizzou’s Drew Lock so don’t fall into that trap. Florida’s defense is a lot like Kentucky’s defense and we saw what the Tigers were able to do in the second half of that one...don’t fall into that price point ($6,000) it’s not going to return anything. Ole Miss’ Jordan Ta’amu is facing a tough(er) defense in South Carolina, so at his price, we’re fading.
RB Travis Etienne | Clem | Lou | $7,700 | Risk: Very Low | Upside: Huge | |
Okay, I think there is a possibility that Etienne sets a record in this one. Let others to be concerned about his last two games (15-39 and 10-45). In the 15-carry game against a solid NC State defense, he scored on three of those carries - running him to a three-game, three-touchdown streak! The Tigers pulled away and won 41-7. Then, against another solid run defense, they just didn’t need him against the Seminoles as they won 59-10. Sure, this could happen again and Etienne could get his 10-15 carries and call it a day, but with Louisville’s 110th ranked (S&P+) rush defense, he should have plenty of points and value at the half. | ||||||
RB Justice Hill | OKSt | @Bay | $6,400 | Risk: Low | Upside: Very High | |
We are still waiting for THAT game. That one huge game in which he just fully breaks out. This is that game. His best performance rushing was a 31-carry, 189 yard, one score performance against Kansas. His per carry average over the last three have been 2.75 (Iowa State), 3.73 (Kansas State) and 4.00 (Texas). The Cowboys offensive line is suspect, but Baylor’s rush defense is putrid at best. What’s most disappointing thus far for Hill is his lack of activity in the passing game. Just 11 catches for 56 yards after 31 grabs a year ago. He could throw in a couple of catches to make this even more impressive. It’s time. | ||||||
RB Matt Colburn II | Wake | Syr | $6,700 | Risk: Medium | Upside: High | |
Wake goes so fast and runs so much that both Colburn and Cade Carney are well over 100 carries this season. Each has similar numbers with Colburn holding a slight edge in carries (119-109), yards (603-572) and they both have five scores. Heck, QB Sam Hartman has 88 runs himself. So, there is enough to go around here for a profit. Syracuse is 87th in rushing S&P+ and while that’s not horrific, it’s enough for a good running team to take full advantage of. You could easily feel comfortable with Carney at a cheaper rate ($5,900) too. | ||||||
RB Dontae Strickland | Syr | @Wake | $3,900 | Risk: Medium | Upside: High | |
We must give you a cheap play for one of your RB or Flex spots. Strickland is that guy. I won’t go into how much volume will be there for the taking - I’ve harped on that enough above. So, with Strickland, you get a guy who is 3rd on the team in carries as the QB Dungey and fellow running back Moe Neal are the primary carriers, but, as mentioned, there is enough here to return on this price tag. Strickland should get 10-14 carries and has scored six times this year. Even a 10-carry, 60-yard, one score performance is a winner. Wake is 108th against the run. That’s enough. | ||||||
Other options: You could always go with either J.K. Dobbins or Mike Weber (or both) at Ohio State and be just fine. South Carolina’s Rico Dowdle is a run/catch threat but there are swirlings that Kylin Hill is going to make his return this week and that could significantly cut into his production.
Avoiding: There are some big names to avoid simply because of matchups. Michigan’s Karan Higdon against Penn State - though, I’m the least concerned here. Benny Snell at Kentucky gets UGA’s defense. On the other side, D’Andre Swift is facing an almost equally tough defense in the Wildcats (is this the Twilight Zone?). I usually love me some Eno Benjamin at AZ State, but Utah can shut down an opposing run game, heck an n opposing offense.
WR K.J. Hill | OSU | Neb | $6,300 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Very High | |
The only reason you see a “Medium” for risk on Hill is just the potential that Haskins will pick other guys while picking apart the Cornhuskers secondary. Though, Hill leads in yardage (656), both Terry McLaurin and Parris Campbell has more scores (7 & 8 to his 4). Haskins sure spreads it out, but Hill and Campbell are the “go-to’s” and Haskins may put it up 65 times in this one. | ||||||
WR Greg Dortch | Wake | Syr | $7,900 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Very High | |
Dortch is a monster. Syracuse is not a monster defensively and (again) this game could get out of hand. He leads the Deacs’ second-leading receiver by 38 grabs. Expect to see Sam Hartman looking his way many times and Dortch to torch the Orange (corny, I know). | ||||||
WR JD Spielman | Neb | @OSU | $6,200 | Risk: Low | Upside: High | |
On the other side of the coin in that Nebraska / Ohio State game is this guy. We’ve mentioned that freshman QB Adrian Martinez is starting to settle in a bit and this once vaunted Buckeyes defense has softened a bit. Spielman leads the team with 53 catches for 686 yards (12.8 YPC) and seven scores. Can’t beat a 6.6 catch/per game average and while he isn’t as explosive as his running make Stanley Morgan Jr. - he’s the better option here. Though, Morgan’s presence is important so that the Bucks can’t key on one or the other and if they have to choose, they may have to focus on the big-play threat in Morgan. Expect 7-10 catches from Spielman here. | ||||||
WR Justyn Ross | Clem | Lou | $5,100 | Risk: High | Upside: High | |
Speaking of big-play guys, look no furhter than this freshman, who is earning the respect of his fellow froshie QB Trevor Lawrence. Ross averages 20.1 yards per catch and has scored four times. The risk is a bit higher, thus the price a bit lower, but don’t ignore the potential of Ross against a Louisville secondary, who you could make an argument doesn’t even exist. | ||||||
Other options: Either Oklahoma State guy in Tyron Johnson or Tylan Wallace is more than a solid play. Never completely disregard Ole Miss’ A.J. Brown, though, we didn’t write him up because Kentucky will do everything they can to stop him. If they succeed in that, it frees up DaMarkus Lodge, who is capable and $1,200 cheaper than his teammate. I mentioned Parris Campbell in the Hill write-up and Stanley Morgan Jr. in the Spielman one. Either of those two could have just as big a day. Of course, any of the WVU wide receivers in David Sills V, Gary Jennings Jr. and/or Marcus Simms are in play. Though, they tend to share the big day and Texas is decent defensively. So many options to consider including either of the South Carolina threats in Deebo Samuel or Bryan Edwards. Need some cheaper guys, so look at Texas’ Devin Duvernay ($3,600) as a bit of a dart throw.
Example Lineup:
A lot of different shades of orange and black jerseys in this lineup. Just coincidence, not a tribue to the passing of Halloween...
QB - Eric Dungey (Syr) -$8,400
RB - Matt Colburn II (Wake) - $6,700
RB - Travis Etienne (Clem) - $7,700
WR - JD Spielman (Neb) - $6,200
WR - Devin Duvernay (Tex) - $3,600
WR - Justyn Ross (Clem) - $5,100
Flex - Nykeim Johnson (Syr) - $5,100
S-Flex - Sam Hartman (Wake) - $7,200
Example Lineup:
QB - TaQuon Marshall (GaTech) - $8,100
RB - J.K. Dobbins (OSU) - $6,300
RB - Justice Hill (OKSt) - $6,400
WR - Bryan Edwards (SoCar) - $6,000
WR - K.J. Hill (OSU) - $6,300
WR - Tyron Johnson (OKSt) - $5,200
Flex - Dontae Strickland (Syr) - $3,900
S-Flex - Adrian Martinez (Neb) - $7,800