The main slate in DraftKings for Saturday is an interesting one. A week after having shootout potential from so many games, we are seeing quite a few solid to dominant defenses featured and are throwing us for a loop here in week four. Each week, we like to discuss what we learned from the week prior. Here are a couple of things:
- The Florida State Seminoles offense is officially bad. Stay away at all costs. If they couldn’t find it against Syracuse...well, this ain’t happening.
- Sometimes, you just never know. UGA starting running back D’Andre Swift was a top play against a weak defense. He gets four carries for 12 yards and sits the rest of the game. Injury? Nope. Dawgs head coach Kirby Smart said he just wanted to get some other guys some playing time. That happens - and it sucks when it does.
However, it’s all about how you react to such things going forward. Swift’s stock may have dipped a bit ahead of a SEC matchup against Mizzou, who allowed plenty of yardage against the Boilermakers a week ago. Expect Swift to come back with a vengeance this week and we’ll be all over him at a bit of a discounted price.
Don’t fall into the trap of some big offensive names playing against really good defenses. We’re punting on Missouri (against UGA), Wake Forest (against Notre Dame), Texas A&M (against Alabama) and Georgia Tech (Clemson). Sure, Drew Lock, TaQuon Marshall, Greg Dortch and Trayveon Williams are temping options and their prices are depressed a bit for the matchups, but the risk far outweighs the reward. We’ll focus on some other games that should be a bit more offensive and pick from that pool instead.
Wait! Do I really have two Kansas players in my Playbook? Holy...
QB Will Grier | WVU | K-State | $10,500 | Risk: Low | Upside: Very High |
Why not have the catalyst of one of the top passing offenses in all of college football lead off this weeks Playbook? Grier is the real deal. He’s surrounded by top-level talent and gets a matchup against a Kansas State defense, that, while not terrible - is not a threat to slow them down much. Sure, $10,500 is a lot to spend on any one player in DFS and there are no guarantees - but if you build around Grier, you’ll likely be smiling towards the end of the day. | |||||
QB Tua Tagovailoa | Bama | A&M | $9,900 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Huge |
Okay, enough of this: well, Jalen Hurts still gets time here and that’s a worry. Blah. Forget it. Tua is showing off - literally - showing off his talent on a weekly basis. He’s so good and we are so not worried that we’ll suggest getting him in the lineup even though there is the threat of a few series being taken away. That’s the only reason for the “Medium” level risk and we would probably lean more towards him in tournament lineups. Still, expect him to continue his onslaught as the Crimson Tide continue their move towards a pass-first offense because of his immense ability. | |||||
QB Skylar Thompson | K-State | @WVU | $5,500 | Risk: High | Upside: High |
So, the two obvious big dogs are out there. These new two - starting here with Thompson - are super-flex plays to go along with them. Thompson can be the beneficiary of a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair with the Mountaineers. If that happens, his dual-threat ability becomes even more enticing and on display. You’ll wan | |||||
QB Kenny Pickett | PITT | @UNC | $6,100 | Risk: High | Upside: Very High |
Pickett is a solid dual-threat option here. While the Tar Heels are much better on defense than on the other side of the ball, the Panthers should be able to move it and Pickett will lead the way. He’s hit on 65% of his passes thus far and has added 20 carries for 80 yards and a score. At this price, he a good guy to pair up with one of the big dogs in the super-flex to get two QB’s in there. His breakout is coming. | |||||
RB D’Andre Swift | UGA | @Mizzou | $7,400 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Huge |
Some may be sour on Swift after his unexpected four-carry game last week against Middle Tennessee. You shouldn’t be deterred. This is the primary back for the Dawgs and they are heading into SEC play on the road. Sure, Elijah Holyfield will get some carries, but expect Kirby Smart and this offense to feature plenty of Swift and his price has come down a bit as an added bonus. When asked about last week Smart said that he just wanted to get some other guys playing time when it was out of hand quickly. | |||||
RB Travis Etienne | Clem | @GATech | $8,300 | Risk: Low | Upside: Very High |
Etienne finally showed some of his promise last week against Georgia Southern, but he, like Swift, has yet to fulfill what’s really there from an upside standpoint. He’s carried it 35 times for 269 and four scores. Not bad. But, that 200+ three score game is coming and it could be this week against a banged up ACC foe in Georgia Tech. He’s trending up after a slow start saw him net just over 100 yards combined against Furman and Texas A&M in the first two games. The training wheels are coming off this week and you’ll want him in you lineup. | |||||
RB Tony Jones Jr. | ND | @Wake | $5,800 | Risk: High | Upside: High |
Jafar Armstrong was the talk of South Bend after the first week as he essentially stole the starting running back duties away from Jones. With Dexter Wiliams expected back next week, this may the be the last chance to cash in on Jones as the carries will start to split up a bit more. Jones and Armstrong have split carries evenly thus far (39 a piece) but Jones’ 5.74 yards per carry far exceeds that of Armstrong (3.77). He took 17 carries against a good Vandy defense last year and turned in 118 yards. Also, Notre Dame is showing a lot on the defensive side of the ball and with Brandon Wimbush expected to give way to Ian Book for at least some of the game, the Irish could try to win with defense and ball-control. | |||||
RB Khalil Herbert | KU | @Baylor | $4,000 | Risk: High | Upside: High |
Jayhawk No. 1 -- and while we know about the freshman Pooka Williams Jr. stealing the show thus far in the Kansas backfield, Herbert should not be ignored - especially at this price. You just don’t find running backs with any sort of upside at this price point and with the Jayhawks playing in what could be an offensive shootout, Williams is going to need some help. Herbert broke out a long one last week for a touchdown and we’ll hope for the same in tournament play at just $4,000. | |||||
Other RB’s to consider: PITT RB Darrin Hall ($4,300) is expected to get more involved in the offense this week. He’s a playmaker and has been held back a bit thus far...
WR Jerry Jeudy | Bama | A&M | $8,400 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Very High |
Even if Tua and Hurts split some of the throws, this Jeudy character is the one most likely to be on the receiving end. He has 11 catches for 287 yards and six, yes, six touchdowns thus far. That’s a 26 yards per catch average and we’ll say it again - six touchdowns. This kind of production can’t keep up. Or can it? Sure, you’ll have to pay a pretty penny for him and the risk is simply that A&M sells out to stop him (which allows other exploitations to occur) or that Bama, again, gets out to such a huge lead they will throw it less. Both could happen, but we’re betting against it. | |||||
WR David Sills V | WVU | K-State | $8,000 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Very High |
I don’t love taking sides in the West Virginia receiving battle between Gary Jennings Jr. and David Sills V. However, there is plenty to go around for both of them from Will Grier and this offense. And, if I am picking one, I’m taking the slightly cheaper option, which, for now is Sills. He’s $800 cheaper and has just three less catches (9) and two less touchdowns (2). The Mountaineers were Hurricaned-out last week and are going to be healthy and fast against the Wildcats. Sills is the play here. | |||||
WR Jalen Hurd | Bay | KU | $7,600 | Risk: High | Upside: High |
Looking for a slightly less expensive option here and Hurd is the guy. The converted running back and Tennessee transfer has found his home in the Baylor receiving corps. He’s managed 18 catches for 251 yards and a couple of scores in 2018 so far. His running mate Denzel Mims sat out a week ago and is expected back against the Jayhawks, so that presents a small issue potentially. There are questions at quarterback between Charlie Brewer and Jalan McClendon - but Hurd doesn’t seem to mind whos tossing it - he’ll go get it. | |||||
WR Jeremiah Booker | KU | Baylor | $3,200 | Risk: Very High | Upside: Medium |
We always try to find you that super-cheap option that could make-or-break a tournament lineup. There just aren’t too many options here but we’re going to look at the Senior Jeremiah Booker at Kansas. Again, if this Baylor game gets “pointsy” there will be plenty to go around. Even though Booker has just six catches thus far, he’s just four behind the two team leaders Kerr Johnson Jr. and Steven Sims. Expect Baylor to try to lock down those two and Booker to roam free a couple of times. One touchdown catch returns value on this price point - so...why not? | |||||
Other WR to consider: Any of the other, cheaper Alabama options who could break through, including Henry Ruggs III ($5,600), Devonta Smith ($6,100), Irv Smith Jr. (TE - $4,400) and/or Jaylen Waddle ($3,500)...UGA WR Riley Ridley ($5,200) is intriguing at his price point. Mizzou allowed Purdue to toss it around the yard last week and while Mecole Hardman appears to be the top threat there, Ridley is a solid option and we’ll project him getting loose at least once...We aren’t going with OSU QB Dwayne Haskins this week but not because he won’t have a big game and WR Parris Campbell ($6,400) is the receiver with the most upside from that group. It’s a risky GPP play because the wealth is so evenly spread around…Purdue TE Brycen Hopkins is a solid option after a big week last week. He’s become a favorite target of David Blough, who is starting full-time while Elijah Sindelar is out. Could be worth going back to that well.
Example Lineup
QB - Will Grier - $10,500
RB - Travis Etienne - $8,300
RB - Darrin Hall - $4,300
WR - Henry Ruggs III - $5,600
WR - Riley Ridley - $5,200
WR - Parris Campbell - $6,400
S-Flex - Kenny Pickett - $6,100
Example Lineup
QB - Tua Tagovailoa - $9,900
RB - Tony Jones Jr. - $5,800
RB - D’Andre Swift - $7,400
WR - Riley Ridley - $5,200
WR - Irv Smith Jr. - $4,400
WR - Brycen Hopkins - $4,100
Flex - Jalen Hurd - $7,600
S-Flex - Skylar Thompson - $5,500
FanDuel
Here are some lineups/thoughts for the FanDuel main slate as well. There are a few added games to this slate so you’ll see some new names/faces. If you prefer the FD game, we got you covered:
QB - Will Grier - $10,600
S-Flex - QB Skylar Thompson - $8,100
We’ll start with a sure thing at QB and pair him with Thompson at Super-Flex and build from there.
RB - AJ Dillon (Boston College) - $9,800
RB - D’Andre Swift - $8,800
Getting these two names in a lineup with Grier seems almost impossible. Again, we have to cash in on that Swift price dropping due to last week. AJ Dillon may be the best running back in the country and we can’t go without him across the board.
WR - Brycen Hopkins - $6,600
WR - Riley Ridley - $7,400
WR - Isaiah Zuber (K-State) - $8,600
Have to spend a little less with some of the cash we’ve spent to this point. Hoping that K-State / WVU game gets a bit offensive and having the Thompson/Zuber combo could pay off big time. Zuber has 14 catches for 223 and three scores thus far. We’ve talked about Hopkins and Ridley already in the DK portion.