Phoenix Suns-Los Angeles Clippers
Over/Under: 214
Spread: PHX -5.5
Western Conference Finals
Game 5
Just when we thought the Clippers could turn the tide of the Western Conference Finals, disastrous shooting struck both teams and the Suns shot a little better to hang on to an ultra low-scoring 84-80 victory putting them on the brink of making the NBA Finals for the first time since 1993. The Suns shot 36 percent from the field and 20 percent from downtown while the Clippers shot 32.5 percent from the floor and 16.1 percent from the arc. Paul George has been supported by Reggie Jackson and Ivica Zubac offensively, but, that might not be enough to keep up with Phoenix. These two teams have had close battles throughout this series. Phoenix swept the first two games and in order for the Clippers to have a shot, players like Marcus Morris are going to have to show up for this team and knock down open three’s. The Suns can turn up the pace at any point and in order for the Clippers to get back in this series without Kawhi Leonard, they must outshoot the Suns tonight. Both teams match up well in a lot of areas and it will come down to shooting percentage.
Injuries:
*Kawhi Leonard-Out
*Serge Ibaka-Out
MVP/CAPTAIN
Paul George- With no Leonard present, George is going to get his. Expect him to take at least 20 shots tonight and he may only rest for a couple of minutes being that it’s an elimination game. Despite still producing at a high level, George hasn’t been shooting well at all this series. He’s shot over 40 percent once in 4 games. Getting hounded by Jae Crowder and Mikal Bridges isn’t easy, but if George’s three-pointers aren’t falling early, he must do what he did last game, attack relentlessly. He took 18 free-throws last game and he’ll need to try to get the Suns out of position in order to either get the step in the lane to draw contact, or feed an open Clipper at the arc. The fact that George is shooting like “Pandemic-P” and is still producing 55-plus DraftKings points in his last couple of games makes him a safe CPT option. George has not only dished six or more dimes in his last three contests, but he grabbed at least 15 boards in his last 2 games.
Deandre Ayton- Ayton continues to show why he was the No. 1 overall draft pick a few years ago by providing excellent post-play on both sides of the ball. It’s good seeing big men actually play like big men in this series using their size inside and not trying to be fancy by stretching the floor. Ayton is coming off of a 22-rebound game and he’s grabbed no fewer than 9 boards in any game this series. Unlike other prioritized players in this series, Ayton has shot 57 percent or better from the field in every game. He’s also blocked multiple shots in his last two games and he’s grabbed steals in four of his last five contests. He plays deep into games and because of Ayton’s incredible wingspan, it’s very hard to box him out. If the Suns struggle out of the gate, expect them to feed Ayton inside more. He should take 13-15 shots tonight and play at least 35 minutes.
Chris Paul- Even though Paul has shot poorly in the two games played since returning to the floor, he has major multi-category production potential and he should get 20 shots in tonight’s game. He has shot under 28 percent in both games versus the Clippers. Paul has grabbed multiple steals in three of his last four games. He’ll have the most time with the ball and if Devin Booker can hit a few more shots tonight, we can expect Paul to be in double-digits when it comes to assists. Even with the Suns shooting very poorly, Paul still dished seven dimes. He’ll provide minimal rebounding help and it’s good seeing him be able to play deep into games. Expect him to hover around 40 minutes of game-play tonight. He should try to keep the speed up to keep the Clippers on transition and should just take it to the rack himself. Paul will draw a lot of contact with the way he weaves through players and sacrifices his body.
FLEX PLAYS
Ivica Zubac- Since he’s been given a full workload of minutes, Zubac has recorded double-doubles in every game. Zubac has shown a lot of aggressiveness and he’s been able to stay out of foul trouble. Zubac has played at least 33 minutes in his last 3 games. He’s taken eight shots in both of his last two games. Zubac, like Ayton, is an inside-exclusive center and it’s too difficult for the Clippers to go small against Ayton. Both players have been producing at a high level against each other. Zubac has secured 14 or more boards and a steal in his last 2 battles. Zubac has been swatting away shots as well and has blocked a shot in three of his last five games. Zubac has been good at not only stopping the drive by sending back a shot, but he’s also jumping straight up so he doesn’t get called for a limited contact foul. The Clippers have no reason to abandon Zubac especially with Serge Ibaka out and Marcus Morris playing like he’s on vacation already.
Devin Booker- Since his 40-point triple-double game 1, Booker has scored, but isn’t doing quite enough to hit value. Since shooting 51.7 percent from the floor in game 1, Booker hasn’t been able to hit 37 percent in any game since. After grabbing double-digit boards in three of four, he’s only grabbed four or more in two of his last three games. This is a warning sign that we may want to stay off of him tonight. Can you look at it from the other perspective and think that his investment percentage could be down? Sure! But, even when he scored 25 points last game, he didn’t do much else. Booker has grabbed steals in his last two contests. With Paul back in the lineup, Booker doesn’t bring the ball up nearly as much and he just sets up at the elbow and arc. The Suns should try to operate a little give n’ go between the two especially on transition. As soon as Paul steps beyond the logo at center court (a few feet inside the mid-court line), Booker should try cutting to the basket to get more offensive success and give the Suns potential second-chance scoring opportunities. He’s a very high-risk play with a healthy Paul.
Reggie Jackson- He gets to take command of the offense for a good portion of the game and continues to play a ton of minutes and he has a safe floor. Jackson is coming off of a 24-shot game and he’s taken no fewer than 15 field goals in his last 6 games. Jackson is quick and can get to the rim. Patrick Beverley may be the better defender and Rajon Rondo is the better passer, but Jackson gives them a ton of offense and he’s needed on the floor. Let’s not throw away Jackson’s defensive efforts this series as he’s grabbed steals in every game this series including two in two of the games and he’s grabbed five or more boards in three of four games this series. Jackson has also scored 20 or more points in three of four as well. Prior to last game, Jackson shot over 46 percent from the field in his previous 9 games. He screams safety and should take 18-21 shots tonight.
Mikal Bridges- Bridges and Jae Crowder haven’t been that consistent this series when it’s come to scoring, but Bridges is coming off of a 13-rebound game and he’s blocked shots in 4 of his last 6 games. Being that Bridges is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, the Suns will need him out there tonight and his minutes are safe, but he hasn’t been taking many shots, hence scoring in double figures in just two of his last four games. Surprisingly as well, probably because of the tough George match up he has, he hasn’t been grabbing steals as much this series. On offense, he’s used primarily as a bailout option, but in showdown, we need players that will be locked into a full workload of minutes and Bridges should play around 40. The Suns obviously don’t want to go back to Los Angeles and Bridges defense is one of the keys to closing out this series.
DART THROWS
Terance Mann- With Leonard still out, Mann has been given extra run and he’s played 32.5 minutes between his last 2 outings. Mann has been a bit helpful grabbing long rebounds and has secured four in three of four this series. Mann can hit the knockdown three-pointer he’s actually scored 12 points in both of his last 2 games. Mann is a hound on the perimeter and is always trying to swipe balls from his opposition. Mann has posted steals in five of his last six games. The Clippers may want to look to feed him a bit more this game as he was able to withstand the poor shooting from most other teammates and he can absolutely be utilized more if shots aren’t falling. Mann is also good at keeping plays alive and as long as he can stay out of foul trouble for the most part, expect him to play over 30 minutes again.
Cameron Johnson- Another very risky play, and a true definition of a dart throw, but another struggling shooting performance could give Johnson more looks. Johnson is hitting his shots, he just doesn’t bring the defense that Crowder or Bridges brings to each match up and his minutes are a bit all over the place. With both teams struggling to shoot the ball, the Suns needed their best defenders out there to survive and that limited Johnson to playing only 17 minutes. He played 24 or more in the other 3 games in this series. Johnson has been rebounding a bit grabbing four or more in three of four games in the series. Johnson has also grabbed steals in eight of his last 10 games despite not producing 1 in either of his last 2 games. The minutes are unsafe, but seeing him hit shots when given, he could be looked upon if the Suns remain cold.