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OK, so all hope is actually lost for Mike Bolsinger. I also had a Dodgers stack last night as one of my three lineups and guess what? I removed it. Well, the beauty as always of DFS is the ability to learn from your mistakes and move on to a new day. Yesterday’s teams are gone, on to today's.
Today’s starting pitching is uglier than that old biker lady with no teeth who has been passed around for years and stinks of stale cigarettes. Which is pretty ugly. Outside of a few players it is all about risk versus reward today. Luckily there are a few gems sitting there who could possibly free up some cash for the big boppers you want to roster. None, of course, without risk.
So siding on the air of grumpiness this morning I bring you today’s Pitching Coach Article.
Top Cash Game Plays
Where yesterday we had choices, today we have few. As always these plays are the ones to be used on a one-pitcher site and you should have at least one of these players in your lineup on a two-pitcher site in cash games using two if possible.
Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
Much like yesterday with Steven Matz, today again I will be going back to attack the Braves. They are striking out 19 percent of the time with a .297 wOBA and wRC+ of 85 versus RHP. On the road the Braves are dead last in both wOBA at .292 and wRC+ at 80. deGrom gets a positive park shift today pitching in Citi Field which is 22nd in HR allowed and he is a -186 favorite in a game with an expected run total of 6.5 (which is the lowest on the slate). Over his last five starts spanning 31 innings he has an incredible 42 strikeouts with a decent 3.19 ERA. He has reverse splits with LHB only having a .268 wOBA versus him so this should help neutralize the Freddie Freeman effect. A ground ball pitcher in Citi Field facing the Braves, seems like a no brainer for the top option on the slate.
Danger Zone
The current Braves roster is batting .255 (13-for-51) with one HR (Freddie Freeman who is 2-for-13 lifetime of off deGrom), two RBI, and 11 strikeouts versus deGrom. Looks good to me.
Kenta Maeda, Los Angeles Dodgers
OK, so as I mentioned Mike Bolsinger did not work out yesterday for me. It happens. That is why they are called boom or bust GPP plays. That one, well, just went bust. Today I am going after the Brewers again but with a much better pitcher in Kenta Maeda. He is a -208 favorite pitching in Dodger Stadium which is 29th in runs scored in MLB in a game with an expected run total of eight. Today he is facing a Brewers team that I believe looks more dangerous than they are. The Brewers are striking out 23.7 percent of the time with a decent .323 wOBA versus RHP. On the road the Brewers only have a .307 wOBA and wRC+ of 87, which playing in Dodger Stadium certainly will not help. Over his last two starts versus the Rockies at home and Diamondbacks on the road Maeda has a 2.25 ERA over 12 innings with 15 strikeouts and for the price on FanDuel of $8,900 seems like a steal.
Danger Zone
We have no BVP here yet but both LHB and RHB have wOBA’s under .270 versus Maeda on the season which makes me feel pretty good to be honest.
Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians
Finally, today we get to use the Indians in DFS. It seems they often end up in the weird 6 p.m. time slot which eliminates them from most slates being offered across the sites. I find Carrasco the riskiest of the cash game plays today and a much better play on DraftKings for $8,700 than FanDuel for $9,400. If you are going to pay $9,400 than be smart and save the $500 and take Maeda (providing you are playing on a slate that offers both of them).
Today Carrasco gets the White Sox at home in Progressive Field which is eighth in runs scored in MLB so we do not get a positive park shift here, and this game also has an 8.5 expected run total which is not nice. He is, however, a -180 favorite facing a White Sox team striking out 20.9 percent of the time with a low .306 wOBA and wRC+ of 88 versus RHP. On the road the Chi-Sox do not hit much better sporting an .302 wOBA but, have looked a little better lately batting .262 over the last seven days. Carrasco is prone to let up a few runs but offers nice K upside. Over his last two starts versus the tough Royals and really tough Mariners on the road he has 14 strikeouts over 12 2/3 innings with a 4.26 ERA. If I wanted to get off the chalk in cash games than Carrasco is where I would make my mark.
Danger Zone
We have a decent amount of BVP here with these two teams playing in the same division. The current White Sox are batting .288 (34-for-118) off of Carrasco with four HR (Jose Abreu (2), Melky Cabrera, and Carlos Sanchez), 24 RBI, and 35 strikeouts. Also both LHB and RHB have over .325 wOBA’s versus Carrasco which can spell disaster at every turn.
GPP plays that will make or break your wallet.
The GPPs are ugly today, carry a ton of blow up risk, and, of course, anytime you take players in this section you are doing so at your own peril. That is why they are here and are not for the faint at heart.
Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks
I am loving me some Archie Bradley today and I am not afraid to tell the world. Today he gets a great park shift going from Chase Field to Citizens Bank Park which is 22nd in runs scored in MLB. He is also a -142 favorite on the road facing the bottom feeders of offense in the Philadelphia Phillies. The fightin’ Phils are striking out 22.7 percent of the time with a .291 wOBA (29th in MLB) and wRC+ of 78 (last in MLB). At home the Phillies are just as bad coming in 30th in MLB in both wOBA at .273 and wRC+ at 66. Yes, 66. A number to us Dodger fans that represents bad things in itself. Wait, it gets better still. The Phillies over the last seven days are only batting .197.
Archie Bradley has an elite K/9 of 10.03 which for DFS purposes facing the Phillies spells huge upside. Over his last two starts versus the Dodgers and Rays at home he has allowed 10 earned runs over 17 1/3 innings with 24 strikeouts. Keep in mind both these starts were in the hitter friendly Chase Field and both of these teams are better than Phillies, if not by much. For the price today I am rolling with Bradley on two-pitcher sites and he will be my SP in at least one of my three lineups on FanDuel.
Danger Zone
We have little BVP here with the current Phillies batting .333 (2-for-6) with one RBI and one strikeout. LHB have a .394 wOBA versus Bradley which is also concerning.
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Nathan Eovaldi, New York Yankees
Every now and again I go to the Nathan Eovaldi well for some savings. Today on DraftKings he is only $5,800 facing a Twins team striking out 21.5 percent of the time with a low .308 wOBA versus RHP. At home they hit a little better with a .314 wOBA but are only batting .231 over the last seven days. Eovaldi is also a -140 favorite and gets a positive park shift pitching at Target Field. Over his last three starts versus the Orioles and Rockies on the road and Angels at home he has gotten absolutely rocked by hitters allowing 16 earned runs over his last 14 2/3 innings. Eovaldi on the season has a 4.90 ERA but only a 3.63 xFIP which suggests he has been unlucky. I expect Eovaldi being a groundball pitcher with a K/9 of over eight to have a bounce-back game today and shut down the lowly Twins for peanuts.
Danger Zone
We have some nice BVP here with the current Twins roster batting .190 (8-for-42) with zero HR, three RBI, and 10 strikeouts. You smell that? It’s money.
Mike Bolsinger, Los Angeles Dodgers, sucks!
Jake Peavy, San Francisco Giants
First off, this one is more of a punt play because I prefer to only use Jake Peavy at home when I choose to do so. But, today he is facing the Tampa Rays. The same Rays that are striking out 24.8 percent of the time with a low .308 wOBA versus RHP. At home the Rays only have a .285 wOBA and low wRC+ of 82. He also gets a great park shift here as well with Tropicana Field being 30th in runs scored and 24th in HR allowed in MLB. Does it get better? Yes, the Rays also are only batting .233 over the last seven days. Peavy has been ok this season sporting a 3.42 ERA over his last five starts with two shutouts versus the Dodgers and Braves who both fall right in line with the Rays. On a day with little to choose from, Peavy looks pretty awesome.
Danger Zone
The biggest danger is he is Jake Peavy who basically sucks. Otherwise the current Rays roster is batting .245 (13-for-53) with two HR (Desmond Jennings and Evan Longoria), nine RBI, and seven strikeouts of off Jake from…wait, that’s the other Jake.
I did kind of like Julio Teheran on FanDuel but still feel better options are available and on DraftKings, well, they must be smoking something for that price. If you are playing on the night only slate on DraftKings tonight, outside of Maeda, you are going to be forced to take a starting pitcher who is in a horrible position no matter where you turn. Of these, if forced, I would look at Jared Weaver as crazy as it sounds in GPPs. I find Drew Pomeranz, Gio Gonzalez, Kyle Hendricks, and Jameson Taillon all in volatile situations tonight and for this reason I am only playing in the all-day slate on DraftKings.
| Player | Tm | H | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BAA | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | BABIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA v L | wOBA v R | $FD | $DK | $Aces |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | R | PHI | 35 | 10.03 | 4.37 | 1.8 | .235 | 9.6% | 5.66 | 3.91 | 1.4 | .270 | 46.8% | 31.9% | 1.47 | 0.394 | 0.296 | $6500 | $7700 | $5800 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | R | NYM | 89 | 8.6 | 2.33 | 1.31 | .196 | 11.4% | 2.93 | 3.67 | 0.99 | .220 | 45.2% | 36.4% | 1.24 | 0.325 | 0.225 | $8500 | $11600 | $6400 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | R | TOR | 84.2 | 8.72 | 3.3 | 1.06 | .220 | 11.4% | 2.87 | 3.79 | 1.16 | .265 | 46.4% | 34.5% | 1.34 | 0.328 | 0.268 | $9100 | $9100 | $6250 |
| David Price | BOS | L | SEA | 91.2 | 10.02 | 2.36 | 1.18 | .233 | 14.1% | 4.52 | 3.33 | 1.14 | .286 | 46.1% | 31.0% | 1.49 | 0.279 | 0.306 | $10200 | $11000 | $6850 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHI | R | PIT | 73.2 | 7.45 | 2.08 | 0.61 | .208 | 8.9% | 3.05 | 3.6 | 1.01 | .242 | 58.7% | 24.9% | 2.36 | 0.269 | 0.248 | $8200 | $9000 | $6300 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | L | HOU | 82.1 | 6.34 | 4.15 | 1.09 | .231 | 9.4% | 3.61 | 5.01 | 1.31 | .246 | 42.8% | 30.4% | 1.41 | 0.299 | 0.311 | $6300 | $9300 | $6100 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | R | CWS | 39.2 | 8.17 | 1.82 | 1.82 | .263 | 12.0% | 3.4 | 3.33 | 1.21 | .296 | 54.8% | 27.0% | 2.03 | 0.328 | 0.329 | $9400 | $8700 | $6500 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | L | MIA | 6.1 | 8.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | .240 | 12.0% | 1.42 | 2.35 | 0.95 | .316 | 61.1% | 22.2% | 2.75 | 0.000 | 0.299 | $6000 | $4000 | $5250 |
| Carlos Rodon | CWS | L | CLE | 69.1 | 8.57 | 2.99 | 1.3 | .286 | 9.4% | 4.28 | 4.05 | 1.5 | .333 | 48.6% | 32.5% | 1.49 | 0.233 | 0.366 | $7900 | $6200 | $6150 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | R | KC | 78 | 5.65 | 1.85 | 0.92 | .260 | 8.3% | 3.46 | 4.34 | 1.22 | .283 | 44.7% | 37.9% | 1.18 | 0.270 | 0.333 | $9500 | $7100 | $6400 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | R | CIN | 73.2 | 6.11 | 1.59 | 1.59 | .283 | 10.0% | 4.77 | 4.32 | 1.3 | .302 | 44.5% | 28.2% | 1.58 | 0.328 | 0.367 | $7200 | $6500 | $6000 |
| Chris Young | KC | R | DET | 45.1 | 9.14 | 3.57 | 3.57 | .280 | 11.6% | 6.15 | 4.5 | 1.52 | .270 | 29.9% | 47.4% | 0.63 | 0.522 | 0.296 | $0 | $0 | $5500 |
| Kenta Maeda | LA | R | MIL | 75.1 | 8.48 | 2.27 | 0.60 | .217 | 12.5% | 2.75 | 3.64 | 1.08 | .275 | 46.2% | 31.0% | 1.49 | 0.268 | 0.256 | $8900 | $10700 | $6600 |
| Jered Weaver | LAA | R | OAK | 75.2 | 5.47 | 2.26 | 2.14 | .311 | 9.0% | 5.71 | 5.29 | 1.53 | .313 | 32.5% | 41.5% | 0.78 | 0.402 | 0.379 | $6600 | $4700 | $5550 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | R | COL | 72 | 7.37 | 4.38 | 0.50 | .259 | 10.1% | 4.25 | 4.67 | 1.5 | .308 | 50.5% | 27.2% | 1.86 | 0.371 | 0.270 | $7100 | $6700 | $5850 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | R | LA | 4 | 11.25 | 2.25 | 0.00 | .400 | 9.2% | 2.25 | 3.45 | 2.25 | .533 | 46.7% | 26.7% | 1.75 | 0.345 | 0.557 | $6000 | $6600 | $5550 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | R | NYY | 65.1 | 6.75 | 2.76 | 1.38 | .300 | 10.7% | 5.1 | 4.33 | 1.5 | .324 | 46.3% | 31.7% | 1.46 | 0.324 | 0.385 | $5800 | $4600 | $5900 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | R | ATL | 67 | 8.73 | 2.28 | 0.67 | .242 | 13.1% | 2.82 | 3.37 | 1.15 | .293 | 50.8% | 27.3% | 1.86 | 0.268 | 0.301 | $10400 | $11300 | $7100 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | R | MIN | 75.1 | 8.13 | 2.03 | 1.43 | .274 | 10.3% | 4.9 | 3.63 | 1.34 | .315 | 51.7% | 27.0% | 1.92 | 0.386 | 0.309 | $7900 | $5800 | $6200 |
| Eric Surkamp | OAK | L | LAA | 29 | 4.65 | 4.66 | 1.86 | .344 | 6.5% | 8.07 | 7.15 | 2.1 | .336 | 33.3% | 36.8% | 0.90 | 0.408 | 0.438 | $4700 | $4000 | $5400 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | R | ARI | 2.2 | 6.75 | 10.13 | 10.13 | .500 | 3.9% | 27 | 9.74 | 4.5 | .462 | 25.0% | 50.0% | 0.50 | 0.460 | 0.797 | $5500 | $0 | $5350 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | R | CHI | 14 | 5.14 | 1.93 | 0.64 | .182 | 6.0% | 1.93 | 3.85 | 0.79 | .179 | 64.1% | 17.9% | 3.57 | 0.280 | 0.153 | $6900 | $7000 | $6150 |
| Drew Pomeranz | SD | L | WSH | 75 | 10.68 | 4.2 | 0.60 | .189 | 12.1% | 2.88 | 3.51 | 1.17 | .250 | 49.2% | 33.5% | 1.47 | 0.248 | 0.259 | $9100 | $9400 | $6650 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | R | BOS | 70.2 | 8.53 | 1.78 | 1.78 | .235 | 10.6% | 3.69 | 3.64 | 1.15 | .256 | 47.4% | 33.0% | 1.43 | 0.270 | 0.347 | $7500 | $5900 | $6700 |
| Jake Peavy | SF | R | TB | 66.1 | 6.92 | 2.71 | 1.09 | .294 | 11.0% | 5.83 | 4.55 | 1.49 | .333 | 41.7% | 33.8% | 1.23 | 0.405 | 0.335 | $6500 | $6900 | $5850 |
| Mike Leake | STL | R | TEX | 81.2 | 5.84 | 1.54 | 1.32 | .256 | 5.9% | 4.08 | 4.09 | 1.15 | .263 | 51.7% | 27.6% | 1.88 | 0.301 | 0.311 | $7200 | $6800 | $5950 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TB | R | SF | 78.1 | 8.51 | 2.87 | 1.26 | .235 | 10.6% | 3.79 | 3.99 | 1.23 | .274 | 41.4% | 36.0% | 1.15 | 0.247 | 0.351 | $8200 | $7500 | $6250 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | L | STL | 85.1 | 4.74 | 3.8 | 0.63 | .252 | 8.8% | 3.38 | 4.8 | 1.35 | .267 | 57.6% | 21.8% | 2.64 | 0.215 | 0.329 | $7700 | $5600 | $5650 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | R | BAL | 92.2 | 6.12 | 2.62 | 0.78 | .267 | 9.0% | 4.76 | 3.99 | 1.33 | .302 | 61.2% | 17.3% | 3.53 | 0.328 | 0.320 | $7600 | $6100 | $6350 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WSH | L | SD | 77.1 | 9.31 | 2.56 | 0.93 | .252 | 10.7% | 3.96 | 3.5 | 1.27 | .303 | 50.2% | 28.7% | 1.75 | 0.242 | 0.314 | $9300 | $10800 | $6850 |
Good luck today and keep an eye on your players. The weekend is here and players do get rested. And make sure to keep an eye on the weather.
Happy Fathers Day!
Go Dodgers!
Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com