NBA DFS Position Coach -- February 24, 2016

This is a difficult time of year for a Fantasy Sports expert who covers NBA and MLB. While doing the research to play NBA DFS and writing this article I am also in the middle of several fantasy baseball drafts including one NFBC slow draft, one dynasty league start up slow draft, and I have two snake drafts and two auctions coming up in the next few weeks. One of which is pretty high stakes.

The truth is baseball cannot come quick enough. I am counting the days. Most people underestimate the love I have for the game. The people in my life who actually know me will tell you that I am the real life “Fever Pitch” character but with a Los Angeles Dodgers theme. The thing that people do not realize is that my love for this game has not faltered since I was nine years old. Baseball, in essence, is the one thing in my life besides my father that has been with me this long. My mom would have made the list but sadly she passed in 2012. So where am I going with this? Nowhere.

You see most days I turn on my laptop and just start typing what comes to mind. It could be a DFS lesson, a fictional story, something about my cat, or in this case baseball. I tend to get a little sentimental when pitchers and catchers report because it is the one thing that magically transforms me into a kid again. My wife has learned to embrace it and it has been something I have been known for in my circles my whole life. It all started when my late uncle Tony said to me, “Sit down and watch the World Series with me.”

I was living in Los Angeles, it was 1981, and the rest is history.

We have a giant 10-game slate tonight which you all know I am far from fond of. My winning percentage seems to lower significantly on slates with more than eight games. Trust me, I keep track. So tonight I will play a few single entry GPP’s and small 50/50’s for balance and call it a night.

So with a day full of controversy over a Francisco Lindor pick I made, a sick wife, sick kid, hell…probably a sick cat as well, I bring you today’s Position Coach article.

Point Guard

If you are a looking for a safe point guard tonight under the $5,000 mark on FanDuel you might be a little disappointed. Although I do not see the need to spend up tonight at this position I would not go boom or bust at this time unless something special pops up. A lot could change by 5 p.m.

John Wall is my favorite player at the point guard position today although I am not locking him in quite yet. It is just too early on this huge slate but he is the front runner. In seven of Wall's last nine games he has scored over 40 fantasy ppg including hitting the 60 mark twice versus the Warriors and a tough Knicks team. He is playing in what should be a close game with the Bulls being two-point favorites and it has a nice 211 expected point total as well. For DFS purposes this is exactly what you look for. High-scoring, close games. The Bulls are allowing the third most fantasy ppg on the season to the one and the more I type the more I like Wall.

The next-best option tonight if you want to spend some money is Chris Paul. The Clippers are 10-point favorites tonight so we do have some blowout potential here but this game also has a high 213 expected point total which is nice. Paul has been lighting it up as usual scoring over 40 fantasy ppg in five straight hitting the 50 and 60 mark once in this span. The Nuggets are allowing 22.5 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season so he has the right matchup. The blowout risk is all that keeps him from being tied with Wall tonight in my model.

Speaking of baseball most people do not remember that “Mr. October” the original Reggie Jackson played for the then-California Angels. I was lucky enough to get to see some of those Angels games. I watched Rod Carew, Bob Grich, Reggie Jackson, and even Fred Lynn play in Anaheim.

Although I prefer the original, the new Reggie Jackson is in a spot tonight for a monster game. I cannot express enough how the Sixers are much like the Lakers in the sense that taking players against them is like robbing a fantasy cash register. The Pistons are 11.5-point favorites tonight in a game with a high 210.5 expected point total. As usual there is blowout risk here but I am not terribly concerned. Jackson has scored 43.8 and 34.6 fantasy points in his last two on FanDuel and is as close to a must play as possible facing a Sixers team allowing the 24^th most fantasy ppg to the point guard position. Keep in mind most of the Detroit team is and I still follow the rule of trying not to get more than two players from the same team in my lineup. I took three, though, last night versus the Sixers with some Orlando players and it paid dividends so I would consider doing it again tonight with Detroit players without making a habit out of it.

I can tell you right now for the price Goran Dragic is going right into my second point guard spot on FanDuel and I would consider using him on sites with one PG if the price is still viable. The Warriors-Heat game tonight has a close line by Golden State standards with the Warriors being only 8.5-point favorites and this game has one of the highest expected point totals of the night at 214.5. The Warriors are allowing 23.5 ppg (third highest in NBA) and the fifth most fantasy ppg to the point guard position on the season which is always a pleasant starting point. Dragic is averaging over 40 fantasy ppg in his last three and I see no reason tonight this trend does not continue.

You already knew I would be the most irresponsible fantasy analyst in the world if Mike Conley did not make this article tonight. The Lakers, like the Sixers, are like stealing fantasy candy from a baby. Conley has limited upside but versus a Lakers team allowing 23.9 ppg (second highest in NBA) and the most fantasy ppg to point guards Conley has a legit shot at putting up over 35 fantasy points tonight something he has done three times in the last 10 games versus the Magic, Pelicans, and Timberwolves.

I really hate that Tony Parker has scored over 30 fantasy points in two straight games. I also hate that he gets to face a Kings team allowing 22.6 ppg and the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to point guards. I hate even more that his price is so cheap across the industry. I hate that the Spurs are only six-point favorites and this game has the highest expected point total of the evening at 216.5. Every time I take Spurs players I am left feeling like I did in high school after a date. Broke and unfulfilled. All the numbers and factors are here for Parker to have a monster game I just hate saying it.

Shooting Guard

I am 100 percent going cheap at the shooting guard position tonight. All the more expensive players in the two have unfavorable matchups or I just do not see the need to pay for them tonight with so many nice options under $5K on FanDuel.

The first player on my list tonight is Zach LaVine. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg now in 10 straight games and that is as far back as I went because I had seen enough. Now he is actually in the starting role which only benefits his DFS production and he has one of the higher usage rates of all the shooting guards on the slate. The matchup is not great with the Raptors allowing the 12^th fewest fantasy ppg to the two on the season but no one on the roster has a great matchup tonight from the T-Wolves perspective and someone has to score and LaVine certainly has proven he can do that.

Sometimes using these cheap players is like a roller coaster ride and no player better fits this description than E’Twaun Moore. The Chicago Bulls are in a little disarray with Jimmy Butler and half the team beat up right now and the word is Pau Gasol may sit tonight. All of these factors play into Moore’s favor this evening. In five of Moore’s last six games he has scored over 20 fantasy ppg with two near 30 and one over 30. The Wizards are allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to SGs on the season which also helps. His price is starting to creep up a bit but it is still bargain basement for a player who is averaging a little over 23 fantasy ppg in the last six.

The word is with Blake Griffin out they have decided to film another sequel to “The Chronicles of J.J. Redick.” With a 213 expected point total up for grabs tonight, Redick is a great play facing a Nuggets team that is allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg to the shooting guard position on the season. He has 30 fantasy point upside we look for in a player under the $5K mark on FanDuel and has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in three of his last five, including a 30 fantasy point performance versus the Phoenix Suns on Monday night. Why pay a ton of money to get 30 fantasy points when we have several cheaper options that provide that possibility?

And here I am. Another Spurs player. No matter how much I hate taking them, this matchup tonight is so juicy you would have to be a fool to fade them. The Kings are allowing 23.1 ppg (highest in NBA) and the most fantasy ppg to the shooting guard position on the season. Green, although risky, has shown potential as of late scoring over 20 fantasy ppg in three of his last five games hitting the 30 mark versus the Suns on Sunday night. I cannot say I am going to play him but it would behoove you to consider him.

You want to take a deep flyer for the minimum salary across the industry? Lance Stephenson in his last game scored 16 points in 22 minutes versus the Raptors to tally a score over 20 fantasy points. Tonight he would come off the bench to face a Lakers team allowing the third most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season. If you can get 20 fantasy points again tonight for $3,600 on FanDuel it could free up a lot of cash to beef you up in other spots.

Small Forward

I think the small forward on a nightly basis has among the fewest reliable players. Tonight we are fully loaded and I highly recommend spending up at the position tonight.

LeBron James even though I find his whole “King James” thing pretentious and completely off-putting has a price tag on FanDuel that has fallen to a low $9,900. Here is a DFS tip for you: Anytime a superstar who has the ability to put up 60 fantasy points on any given night has a bad game or two that lowers his salary under the $10K mark you take him. Now take that into consideration and then add in the fact that the Hornets are allowing the 20^th most fantasy ppg to SFs and James has scored more than 50 fantasy points in five of his last 10 games with three double-doubles and a triple-double and it really seems like a no-brainer. Do what you want but my money is on the King.

I am not huge on taking Paul George as of late. He reminds me a lot of the Whopper at Burger King. It looks great in the photo but when you open the box it sucks. There is only one way I play him tonight and that is if C.J. Miles sits. In the last game with Miles out George played 42 minutes and scored over 50 fantasy points even posting a double-double with 11 assists. The matchup is not particularly favorable with the Knicks allowing the 11^th fewest fantasy ppg to the small forward position but having a few extra minutes could go a long way. Remember, if Miles plays move onto the next guy.

I feel like lighting my head on fire and putting it out with a hammer inserting yet another Spurs player into my Position Coach article. Kawhi Leonard (GTD – calf) has a great matchup tonight facing a Kings Team allowing 21 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to the small forward position. Prior to his days off to deal with his calf industry Leonard scored over 40 fantasy ppg in three straight. His price is fair and if he plays I am paying up and pairing him with James tonight.

My kids have not eaten an Otter Pop in a long time. It was a vow I took earlier in the season in one of my articles stating that if Otto Porter did not perform I would no longer allow Otter Pops in my house. Call me crazy if you want because I guess kind of I am.

I am going to go back to the freezer department tonight to purchase the largest bundle of Otter Pops I can find as I am calling it now, Otto Porter has a bounce-back game tonight. In the past Porter has shown that 30 fantasy point upside and tonight he is facing a Bulls team allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to SFs on the season. He has failed to score 20 fantasy ppg in three straight games, something you should know before using him.

For the price of $5,700 on FanDuel Tobias Harris is who is playing at PF tonight faces a Sixers team allowing the third most fantasy ppg to the power forward position, where he is starting. Harris is averaging over 25 fantasy ppg in the last three and I see little the young Sixers frontcourt can do to stop him tonight. I can tell you now that if I move off of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard or need to save a few bucks to make a significant upgrade elsewhere I will pivot to Harris for sure.

I told Tony Cincotta once while I was on a Podcast with him that before last season the last time I paid close attention to basketball Vince Carter was putting up 50 points per night in Toronto with Tracy McGrady. If you had told me in 2016 I would even be considering using Vince Carter in DFS I would tell you that you were out of your f*****g mind. Well my friends he is back and seems to be fantasy relevant the last few games. Coming off the bench for the depleted Grizzlies Carter has managed to score over 20 fantasy ppg in back-to-back games hitting near 30 in his last. His price is about as cheap as possible across the industry and the Lakers are allowing the third most fantasy ppg to the small forward position. In a GPP you almost have to give him a shot.

Power Forward

This position is loaded tonight. Basically you could blindfold yourself and play “Pin the tail on the power forward” and hit 25 fantasy points.

Kevin Love if you want to spend up is the player tonight I would do it on at PF. Most people are going to be on LaMarcus Aldridge I believe with the juicy matchup he has but from a fantasy production perspective I see more upside tonight in Kevin Love. Although the Spurs-Kings game has a higher expected point total more often than not I watch Aldridge sit next to Tim Duncan on the bench and watch their backup unit beat up on their opponents while the Hornets-Cavaliers game tonight I expect to stay much closer. The Hornets are allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to PFs on the season and Love has been picking things up as of late scoring over 30 fantasy ppg in three straight nearly putting up 50 versus the Thunder on Sunday night. For the similar price I am rolling the dice on Love over Aldridge.

FYI, the reason the blowout risk is more important to me tonight with Aldridge than the same risk with Leonard is I find a lot more 30 fantasy point options tonight at PF than I do SF. Even in a blowout if Leonard plays he will produce, much like Aldridge. The difference is the volume of players at the position who can produce. Understand?

Gorgui Dieng. I love him. What can I say, I will come out and declare to the world I have a DFS man crush on Gorgui that would make my wife say “God Dieng”.

He is getting a ton of minutes and has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in seven of his last 10 games hitting the 40 and the 50 mark once. The matchup could be better with Toronto allowing the 17^th most fantasy ppg to the center position on the season. Yes center, for some reason FanDuel refuses to fix him. He is the only player I am digging tonight outside of Zach LaVine for the Timberwolves and he also has the best defensive matchup tonight on the team. I am not saying Karl-Anthony Towns is a bad play I just prefer another guy tonight more. An obvious one.

I keep fading Jared Dudley because the whole forward situation on the Wizards scares me. I keep waiting to plug Dudley in to find he is coming off the bench after lineup lock in favor of Markieff Morris. Let me tell you I sure am regretting it. Now it is at the point where I have faded him so long that my gut is telling me the first night I break I get burned. The fact remains Dudley is putting up huge fantasy numbers right now for the low price of $4,600 on FanDuel and he is equally cheap across the industry. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in five of his last six games and tonight faces a Bulls team allowing the 19^th most fantasy ppg to the four. I prefer my defensive matchups to be of a higher number but in this case I would take it for the price.

Up next a tale of two players I like equally tonight although one is safer than other. Both Zach Randolph and JaMychal Green are in the power forward slot on FanDuel at this time. Both have good matchups with the Lakers allowing the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to the four and the 28^th most to the center position. The difference is Randolph has a higher ceiling and is more consistent but is considerably more. Take your pick but I would prefer to go Green and save myself although much more risky.

Serge Ibaka. If you were to go back and read every position coach article I have written this year I bet you would be surprised how little I recommend him. Is he safe? Yes. Does he usually play in games with high expected point totals? Yes. Does he hit the 40 fantasy point mark often? No. Has his price fallen below the $6,000 mark on FanDuel? Yes. What I am trying to say here is that Ibaka has scored over 30 fantasy ppg now in three of his last 10 games and has hit the 20 mark in three straight. The chances of a huge night are slim but that 25 fantasy point game is almost a guarantee. The Mavericks are allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg to PFs on the season and Ibaka is the only exposure I plan on having to this game tonight, if any.

If Pau Gasol sits tonight I would strongly consider Bobby Portis. I am not going to go crazy here as I believe Gasol will play. But just in case. Portis!

Center

Tonight go to the center slot on whatever site you are playing on and insert Andre Drummond. As a rule of thumb you can almost count on a good night against any good center playing the Sixers. Drummond has the ability for huge games and having a sweet matchup like this certainly helps. The Sixers are allowing the most fantasy ppg to the center positon in the NBA and Drummond's price is down across the industry which is nice as some of you may remember when rostering him was almost as expensive as DeMarcus Cousins, who I am fading tonight. Drummond has had a double-double in 11 straight games. I see no way you do not play him tonight.

DeAndre Jordan is the other guy I would consider spending up on tonight. I would love to get a late bullet in my lineup. I prefer Chris Paul but I can tell you now if I wasn’t going to use Drummond than Jordan would be my man. He has scored over 40 fantasy ppg now in six of his last 10 games hitting the 50 mark in two of them. The Nuggets are allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to the center position and already as I type this I am feeling conflicted as they are basically tied in my model. $100 on FanDuel is all that separates them. If you do not use one than I would use the other.

For the price Ian Mahinmi is a player I find myself punting to quite often. It is not often you can grab a player for dirt cheap who usually gives you over 20 fantasy ppg with the upside of hitting the 30 mark on any given night. He is averaging well over 25 fantasy ppg in his last four and tonight faces Knicks team that struggles to defend the center position.

Mark Kaplan and I will be hosting a free live chat tonight at 6 p.m. on the site. Come ask away.

Good luck tonight.

Follow me on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73

GO DODGERS!