Usually a player entering his Age-27 season comes with more acclaim. Especially one only a year removed from hitting 32 home runs with 105 RBI, but Jonathan Schoop unraveled in 2018. His BABIP collapsed to .261, his first season with a rate below three hundred of his career pulling his career rate to .296 as a result. Schoop’s gains in walk percentage and swinging strikes generated also ebbed back towards his levels from 2016. He lost hard hit production, became more aggressive in an effort to overcompensate then had to adjust to the National League after a trade.

Before trying to discern how to value Schoop for 2019, it will be essential to establish where he lies in his development. He’s not going to be a hitter with strong discipline metrics as evidenced by his 4.1 walk percentage and 21.6 strikeout rate over the last three years. But, he owns a palatable .267/.304/.461 slash line which plays better for standard leagues than on-base ones in this time frame. Schoop’s also hit 78 home runs with 248 RBI in 1,710 at-bats with a .195 isolated power. Only Brian Dozier and Rougned Odor launched more home runs at second base than Schoop in the last three seasons.

So, perhaps last year will be a blip on his fantasy career as much as 2017 will be the outlier. Paying for either to repeat would not be probable. Part of Schoop’s success last year occurred when he pulled the ball. He finished with a 43.3 pull percentage last year but his hits to his pull side yielded a .474 isolated power and 1.210 on-base plus slugging percentage. This should play well in his new park. Here’s Schoop’s line drives and fly balls from the last three years with his new home in Minnesota as the overlay:

If he could improve in performance hitting to center and the opposite field, his average could rebound. In fact, Schoop’s expected numbers the last three years could portend a rebound. According to xSTATS, Schoop owns a .271 expected average in this span, above his actual number. A simple bounce back in BABIP and boost in power would allow for him to improve upon last years totals. With the above chart in mind, here’s Schoop’s heat map of the same data sample:

Trying to predict a player as volatile as Schoop proves to be difficult due to his lack of discipline. If one subscribes to the even and odd year splits, Schoop will improve in 2019. However, by how much depends on the site. Here’s his projections from three different systems:

Unlike many players profiled, Schoop’s projections really present three different levels of outcomes. Given his present price point as the 16th second baseman taken in the last month of 12-team drafts according to NFBC data, Schoop’s not a bad dart to throw at pick number 184.84 overall on average. Especially for a team looking to boost its power counting statistics. All of his projections suggest a return to the .260’s in average with at least 21 home runs. His 2019 numbers could reach the ZiPS numbers, but it’s slightly aggressive. Some will depend on where Schoop hits in the lineup along with how his power plays with the Twins.

Given the reduced price, Jonathan Schoop represents upside at middle infield for owners who built cushion in average and targeting power. Even if he attains his 2016 numbers, there’s room for profit here.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

THE ATC courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski

https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp/baseball