Building on his production after joining the Yankees, Aaron Hicks set career high’s last year in home runs, extra-base hits and RBI in only 137 games. Hicks accrued 480 at-bats with 90 runs, 27 home runs, 79 RBI, 11 stolen bases and a .248/.366/.467 slash line. His isolated power rose to .219 while his walk rate settled at 15.5 percent and a 19.1 strikeout percentage. For the second straight year, Hicks lowered his swinging strike percentage and he recorded a career low 20.9 O-Swing (swings and misses outside the strike zone).

Due to the talent and depth in New York’s outfield, perhaps Hicks gets lost in the shuffle in fantasy circles. Over the last three years, Hicks played in 348 games with 176 runs, 50 home runs, 162 RBI, 24 stolen bases and a .244/.344/.431 line. He enjoys hitting in Yankee Stadium with 34 of his home runs during this sample occurring in home contests. His batted ball data yields an 18.6 line drive percentage, 38.6 fly ball percentage, 15 home run per fly ball percentage, 44.8 pull percentage and 34 percent hard hit rate.

It’s important to note his growth in this data in the last two years and it’s illustrated in this graphic courtesy of Fangraphs:

With his power profile trending up, this nugget in spring training could provide hope for an uptick this year as well:

 


Whether or not this transpires, Hicks could improve on last year with more at-bats and some migration to the mean in his average. According to xSTATS, Hicks expected average the last three years should be .266 rather than his .244 actual number. Also, Hicks recorded back-to-back expected on-base averages of .371 in each of the last two years. Even if Hicks gets half of the gains, a .255 average would be much more appealing.

Before looking at the projections, Hicks finished with 377 batted ball events according to Statcast with 33 barrels and an average exit velocity of 88.9 MPH last year. He did increase his launch angle by almost two degrees to 12.5 on average last season and recorded 162 events with a 95 MPH-plus exit velocity (43 percent). At a time when many pitchers try to get hitters out at the top of the strike zone, Hicks actually handles pitches there better than the bottom of it. Here are his zone profiles from 2018 with his actual and expected rates:

Being the Yankees best defensive outfielder, Aaron Hicks should remain in the lineup with a chance to repeat or slightly improve on his numbers from last season. His projections reflect this:

How well Hicks does will rely on how many at-bats he gets. If Hicks reaches THE BAT’s projection of 540 at-bats, he could finish the season as a top-25 outfielder in fantasy but with a price-point as the 36th one taken in NFBC drafts. Add in a boost in average to his counting statistics and 2019 could be the peak of Hicks career, even if he’s not valued accordingly.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

MLB.com

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

Steamerprojections.com

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski

xSTATS.org