While many of the player profiles focus on the top producers from last season, second half breakouts can necessitate getting to know a player better. This includes Adam Frazier . With a clear path to playing time at second base and hitting atop the lineup, he owns the potential to be a draft day bargain. After a quiet first half, Frazier returned from the minors on July 25th and over his last 55 games hit .306 (55-for-180) with seven home runs and 27 RBI. He started as the leadoff hitter in 47 games last year with the Pirates going 28 - 19 in them.

Not known as a positive hitters’ park, Frazier hit .336 in 59 home contests with a .979 on-base plus slugging including six of his 10 home runs. On the road, he struggled to a .230 average with an on-base plus slugging of .654 but recorded a hard-hit percentage almost 10 points higher than in home games. As highlighted above, Frazier’s splits do raise some eyebrows with him entering his Age-27 season.

  • First Half - 57 games, 138 at-bats, 23 runs, three home runs, eight RBI; .239/.323/.355 with a .116 isolated power
  • Second Half - 55 games, 180 at-bats, 29 runs, seven home runs, 27 RBI, stolen base; .306/.357/.533 with a .228 isolated power

Paying full retail for a small sample size usually does not come to fruition, however, when delving into Frazier’s underlying statistics, he gets more interesting.

Then sprinkle in the visual of how his hard-hit rate spike married to his increase in fly balls could bode well for 2019:

For his career, Frazier owns a .280/.345/.422 slash line. When looking at his expected statistics (xSTATS), his average almost aligns with his .281 expected one. This makes him much more interesting. A strong second half can be a part of an isolated surge, but Frazier could carry over his hard-hit gains to accompany his expected on-base average of .342 last year. He also stole nine bases in 121 games in 2017. So sprinkle in a little latent stolen base upside to his profile.

This resonates in his projections, but they seem a little light. But not overpaying for a breakout makes perfect sense. Here’s Frazier’s projections from four different models:

Personally, THE BAT seems to account for his hitting leadoff though the RBI may be too generous. However, getting batting average insulation at Frazier’s present price point (318 average draft position in NFBC 15-team) along with a chance at double digit home runs and steals makes him much more alluring.

Frazier’s the 29th second baseman taken in 15-team drafts and the 82nd outfielder. Yes, bonus points for him being dual eligible. No one enters a draft targeting Adam Frazier . But, he could pay dividends in runs, average and stolen bases without being a drain on batting average. Last year, the Pirates leadoff hitters accrued 96 runs and 66 RBI over 688 at-bats with a combined .257/.301/.400 slash line. Perhaps the projections sit too low for Frazier?

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

Steamerprojections.com

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski