As David Price ages, he’s adapting. It started last year working with reduced velocity but overcoming his struggles with the Yankees culminating in winning two games during the World Series against the Dodgers. After a slow start, Price turned the corner in the second half and carried the momentum throughout the playoffs. He adjusted his arsenal refining his pitches using the top and the bottom of the strike zone to change eye levels resulting in his success.

Price won 16 games in the regular season over 176 innings with 177 strikeouts against 50 walks with a 3.58 ERA, 4.02 FIP and 1.14 WHIP. His strikeouts minus walks percentage rebounded to 17.6 percent despite his swinging strike percentage dropping by two points. Before divulging his second half surge, here’s a look at his pitches from the previous two seasons courtesy of Brooks Baseball:

Starting with throwing fewer sinkers, Price added more changeups and cutters in 2018 with success. While the whiff per swing rates reduced with the two pitches due to more usage, it did fuel Price’s second half during which he recorded a 2.25 ERA, 3.43 FIP and 0.97 WHIP in 68 innings. His strikeouts minus walks increased to 19.1 percent and swinging strike percentage increased to 10.7 percent.

Using the game charts from the World Series, it’s easier to visualize how Price worked at the top and the bottom of the strike zone to generate more swings and misses. First, here’s his chart from Game 2 of the World Series:

And his chart from Game 5 against the Dodgers on the road:

During the series, Price threw a total of 177 pitches producing 24 swinging strikes for a 13.5 swinging strike percentage. He generated 13 swinging strikes with his change, six with the two-seam and five with his four seam fastball. As in the chart above, Price’s cutter did not induce swings and misses, but remained in the repertoire.

When trying to see if his numbers hold up against his xSTATS, Price’s 3.76 bbFIP falls below his FIP which translates well from his 2017 3.81 bbFIP when looking at this season’s totals. Plus, there could be some positive migration of his actual home runs allowed (25) in the regular season compared to the 22.9 expected home runs.

So far, fantasy owners do not seem to be buying into Price’s postseason heroics. He’s presently the 26th starting pitcher off the board in NFBC live drafts with a range of 63 as his high pick and 108 as his low point. At his present average draft position of 87.71, Price represents value. Price’s 9.6 swinging strike percentage should bounce back, especially if he can carry over the gains displayed in the World Series.

Steamer projects Price for a 14 - 9 record with 194 innings, a 188:56 K:BB, 3.94 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. ZiPS comes in a bit lower with deference to his injuries with 13 wins, eight losses, 154.1 innings, 157:42 K:BB, 3.78 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Paying full retail for Price’s second half surge would be a mistake, but, considering of his adjustments in his arsenal along with his career marks, Price could win up to 15 games with a 3.65-to-3.85 ERA and a WHIP at or below 1.17 in the season ahead.

Heed the second half surge, strong performance in the playoffs and hope the strikeouts increase in the year ahead. There’s room for a repeat of his numbers from 2018 with a slight uptick in his strikeouts with increased usage of his change while working in the upper and lower portions of the strike zone.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, BrooksBaseball.net, xSTATS.org, SteamerProjections.com, ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski