While the fantasy baseball world awaits official confirmation of the pending Mets and Mariners trade, Seattle did consummate a deal on Friday sending Álex Colomé to the White Sox for catcher Omar Narváez . As the catcher shuffle ensues, Washington traded prospect Daniel Johnson and Jefry Rodriguez to Cleveland for Yan Gomes . On the surface, each deal seems rather innocuous, but there are always layers of relevance for fantasy.
Álex Colomé to the White Sox
A slow start in Tampa led to Álex Colomé ’s trade to Seattle last year. With Edwin Díaz entrenched as the closer, Colome shifted to a setup role. In 47 games with the Mariners, Colome went 5 - 0 with one save and 30 holds. He reduced his ERA to 2.53 after the deal with 49 strikeouts in 46.1 innings against 13 walks and a 1.04 WHIP.
After relying on his cutter 66.6% of the time in 2017, Colome threw more fastballs last year with better results according to Brooks Baseball. He raised his whiff per swing percentage with the fastball by over two percent, reduced his isolated percentage to .152 and batting average against with the pitch by over 100 percentage points. While his cutter remains Colome’s bread and butter, his whiff per swing dropped slightly from 32.24 to 31.52 last season. But, it still held hitters to a .216 batting average against and yielded a .105 isolated power.
Colome’s one year removed from leading the majors with 47 saves. Using Fangraphs data, he improved his overall swinging strike percentage to 13.6 compared to 11.6 in 2017, decreased contact and bounced back in regards to his strikeouts-minus-walk percentage to 18.1 percent.
Moving to the hitter friendly confines of Guaranteed Rate Field, Colome could struggle when the opposition hits the ball in the air. Colome will need a repeat of his 29.6 fly ball rate from 2018 along with a 28.8 hard hit percentage yielded. Here’s a look at his line drives and fly balls allowed last year with his new ballpark as the backdrop:
Steamer projects Colome to log 65 innings with a 66:21 K:BB, a 3.65 ERA, 3.71 FIP and 1.25 WHIP. As a group last year, the White Sox relievers worked 545.1 innings with a combined 4.49 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Chicago set a team record with 10 different relievers notching a save. Colome’s an imperfect ninth inning pitcher who can be streaky, but, under the tutelage of Don Cooper, Colome could succeed as the closer if he breaks camp with the role. Using the Steamer projection above, Colome could surpass the strikeouts but his ratio statistics could rise as a result of this trade. He’s under control through arbitration the next two seasons but the White Sox owned a glut of catchers so they made a move trading their worst defensive option to Seattle to provide clarity in the late innings.
Omar Narváez to Seattle
For those who do not play in two-catcher leagues, Omar Narváez may not be on your radar. But, he did slash .275/.366/.429 last season over 280 at-bats in 97 games. He scored and drove in 30 with nine home runs. While his numbers do not jump off the page, Narvaez did not hurt his owners in terms of average providing just enough counting statistics to make him relevant. Among catchers with at least 300 plate appearances, Narvaez finished second in on-base percentage and fifth in weighted runs created plus.
Although defensive metrics do not favor Narvaez, he owns a clear path to playing in Seattle. It remains to be seen if his jump to a .154 isolated power can be sustained, but Narvaez did move his hard hit percentage to a career best 28.6 percent in 2018. Beneath the statistics, Narvaez maintained his batted ball and discipline data last season compared to his career rates. Prior to the trade, Steamer projected Narvaez to play in 75 games with 258 at-bats, 30 runs, six home runs, 28 RBI and a .246/.332/.358 slash line. Looking at his expected statistics from xSTATS, Narvaez should be able to hit for a higher than projected average. In 2017, Narvaez expected slash of .285/.368/.367 almost translated in 2018. His expected slash from 2018 supports his line with a .295/.385/.433 line. If, Narvaez can carry over the gains of his hard hit data and accrues at least 400 at-bats, he could hit for an above average rate for a catcher with double digit home runs. Just do not overpay for his services.
Yan Gomes to Washington
As the Nationals potentially prepare for life after Bryce Harper, they continue to shore up their backstop duties. Already signing Kurt Suzuki, they added Yan Gomes to form a potential lethal duo at catcher. While this could harpoon each catcher’s upside, it seems to fit the mold put into place by the Braves in 2017 during which Suzuki logged 276 at-bats and Tyler Flowers finished with 317 at-bats.
Gomes arrives in Washington fresh off a bounce back season in which he he played 112 games with 403 at-bats, 53 runs, 16 home runs, 48 RBI and a .266/.313/.449 slash line. It’s interesting to see Gomes xSTATS note a two MPH increase in exit velocity, his expected home run total of 19.8 and a .266/.317/.484 expected slash. For a visual, here’s Gomes line drives and fly balls from last season with his new home as the overlay:
What should be adjusted in Gomes 2019 outlook will be his average. His .266 average from last season was fueled by a gaudy jump in line drive percentage (almost 10%) and an increase in his hard hit percentage to over 43%. Seeing his expected home run total above his actual number proves enticing, but knowing he will be in a timeshare with the Nationals, his projection will be tempered.
Before the trade, Steamer projected Gomes for 90 games, 321 at-bats, 38 runs, 12 home runs, 42 RBI and a .231/.286/.398 slash. While the counting statistics feel right, it seems a bit low on the batting average which defaults to his three-year averages. Transitioning to a new league, Gomes should be able to reach a higher average than .231, but do not pay for a repeat of the .266 number from 2018. Somewhere in between feels right.
Prospects to Cleveland
With a lack of talent in the outfield, Cleveland targeted Daniel Johnson as the prized piece of the Gomes trade. Johnson hit .267/.321/.410 in 89 games at Double-A in 2018 with six home runs and 21 stolen bases. He’s appeared in center field but scouts seem to feel Johnson will fit better in a corner spot:
https://twitter.com/longenhagen/status/1068650881044832262
More tantalizing than last season, Johnson racked up 22 home runs and 22 steals across two levels of the minors in 2017 with a .298/.356/.505 slash line. Strikeouts piled up in 2018, so he will need to cut down on them going forward but if he can hit for power and steal bases, Johnson could become a fantasy contributor down the road.
Cleveland also acquired Jefry Rodriguez in the trade. He struggled with command during his time with the Nationals walking 37 in 52 innings in the majors last season. But, he averages just a tick under 96 MPH with his fastball with a .207 batting average against with Washington and his curve could be a key to turning the corner. Rodriguez recorded a 37.4 whiff per swing rate with his curve while with the Nationals in 2018 limiting opponents to a .137 batting average and .059 isolated power according to Brooks Baseball.
It remains to be seen if he can become a fifth starter or transition to the bullpen for the Indians, but hope lies within honing his arsenal. If Rodriguez drops his sinker, deploys his curve more and improves his change, there’s a chance he could progress in his development. Time will tell.
There’s much more to come in December, be sure to stay with Fantasy Alarm as the Hot Stove continues to heat up in order to stay ahead of the competition.
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
MLB.com
BaseballSavant.com
BrooksBaseball.net
xSTATS.org