2018 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Miguel Sano

Miguel Sano

Being drafted under the specter of a potential suspension, Miguel Sano’s average draft position seemed depressed at a time when owners crave power. Trepidation also lies within his injury riddled past along with failing to reach 120 games played in the last two seasons. Giancarlo Stanton proved labeling a player can be a fallacy, but Sano’s a different somatotype.

Additionally, Sano seemed to crater in the second half with his plate discipline eroding, ground ball percentage on the rise and power lacking. Whether it’s associated to an injury or lack of adjustment may be discerned this season. Prior to the All-Star break, Sano averaged a home run every 14.3 at-bats with a .276/.365/.538 slash seemingly on his way to coronating his prospect status. Sano also featured an isolated power of .262 which made his 34.8 strikeout percentage more palatable.

As alluded to, the second half, though limited in sample, provided a different glimpse of Sano. He hit fewer fly balls (33.8 percent), more grounders (45.1 percent) and his hard hit percentage sagged by almost six percent. Then, a stress fracture in his shin cut Sano’s season short causing him to land on the disabled list on August 18th and featured a feeble attempt to return before the playoffs.

On the surface, Sano’s Statcast data did not show too much fraying of results featuring 98.5 MPH exit velocity on his fly balls and line drives. Sano also finished his shortened season putting baseballs into play with an exit velocity of 95 MPH-plus 47.6 percent of the time. Sano also launched 28 home runs in only 424 at-bats with a .264/.352/.507 slash line. So why worry?

It lies within the decline exhibited in his second half plate discipline outcomes. If Sano carries over his spike in strikeouts to 2018, it could wreak havoc for fantasy owners. First, here’s a look at his career so far in the majors in chart form highlighting discipline predictors:

High strikeouts continue to be tolerable as long as hitters provide ample power and on-base skills to keep their average from a precipitous drop. Sano’s swinging strike percentage rose four percent last year, his chase rate increased by over five percent while his contact rate declined by almost four percent. Of concern, the hard hit drop if not incurred following an injury coupled with the rising swing and miss tendencies.

Transitioning back to Statcast, here’s the zone profile for Sano with some insights on how pitchers attacked him and his resulting contact:

During the second half, pitchers started to attack Sano more on the inside pitches with success and his whiff rates rose on pitches in the upper third of the strike zone. Both of these trends will need to be tracked during the season to see if Sano can adjust or if he simply did play hurt after the break.

One of the strangest statistics attached to Sano, his career .362 BABIP. Usually high batting averages on balls in play seem reserved for speedsters, but Sano’s been fortunate. How lucky can be diagnosed by perusing his expected statistics. According to xSTATS, Sano’s slash line last year of .249/.339/.494 closely resembles the projections for him in the upcoming season. However, his xBABIP of .349 could portend some average regression moving forward. Sano’s second half line of .236/..312/.431 represents a worst case scenario for Sano, but it’s worth heeding just in case.

Due to his depressed cost in drafts, it’s tough to resist taking a chance on Miguel Sano’s upside. It’s tough to ignore his first half spray chart:

Projecting Sano may not be easy, especially when reading the varying opinions listed on his profile on Fangraphs. His average ranges from .245-to-.254, runs from 67-to-89 and RBI from 78-to-101. There’s no denying his power, but games played and ultimately his total at-bats will determine his ceiling. Sano’s career home run per every 16.1 at-bats creates a chance for him to hit 35 home runs in 563 at-bats, something he’s yet to do in one season with Minnesota.

Gambling on Sano to accrue 550 at-bats without too much migration in his average towards his expected statistics makes him risky. Teams needing power can look to Sano for upside, just be realistic in expectations. Pairing him with a Dee Gordon or D.J. LeMahieu type player creates a nice hybrid combination to absorb the potential hit on batting average along with balancing power and RBI.

Sano will make for an interesting case study this season to determine where his career trajectory goes. Invest in 32 home runs and hope he reaches a career high in at-bats, the power will follow.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, MLBfarm.com, BaseballSavant.com