| Age: | 21 |
| Bats/Throws: | L/R |
| Height/Weight: | 6'0", 234 lbs |
| Position: | Third Base |
Chasing the unknown for upside over established veterans happens every year in fantasy. Especially when a rookie lives up to his prospect label upon promotion. Boston decided to call up Rafael Devers last July and he never looked back hitting .284/.338/.482 with 10 home runs and 30 RBI in 58 games. Because of this, he will not come cheaply this season.
Some of the hype’s warranted. Devers hit .296/.354/.482 during his career in the minors. Add in his power starting to develop and a swing made for success at Fenway to warrant the attraction by fantasy owners. Across three levels last year, Devers finished with a combined 30 home runs (18 at Double-A, two in Triple-A and 10 in Boston), 90 RBI and three stolen bases. Of course, there’s some latent speed with Devers who stole 18 bases at High-A in 2016. This seems silly to note, but remember Todd Frazier flashed stolen base upside in the minors then started running more after establishing himself in the majors.
Despite being a rookie and only 20 years old, Devers held his own at the plate striking out 23.8 percent of the time and walking 7.5 percent during his plate appearances in the majors. This holds true throughout his time in the minors and should translate once again this year. Devers can hit too many ground balls at times and finished with a 49.1 percent rate with Boston but he fly balls (35.6 percent) and line drives (17.2 percent) a decent amount. His home run per fly ball percentage totaled 17.2 percent last year with a very respectable 34.5 hard hit rate.
As for his underlying plate discipline skills, Devers recorded a 12.4 swinging strike percentage, 75.2 contact rate and 36.1 chase percentage (swings and misses outside the strike zone, O-swing). Being so young in the major leagues, Devers may be prone to some streakiness and constant adjustments on the fly. Here’s his rolling chart in the majors last year with some of his data chosen specifically to highlight:
Everything started very well for Devers with his hard hit rate starting above league average and hitting home runs. Then he cratered between games 30-to-46 with his home run percentage collapsing and a dip in his hard hit rate. This resulted in Devers spiking his chase percentage in order to regain his power. It will be worth tracking this year to see if his pitch recognition improves and still hit for power. Remember, he’s a work in progress, not a finished result.
Although stated earlier, part of the reason Devers should not tail off too much this year lies in his ability to hit the ball to the opposite field, taking advantage of his home surroundings in Boston. Here’s his spray chart prior to his promotion last year accounting for his Double-A and Triple-A spray charts courtesy of MLBfarm.com:
Then, after joining Boston, here’s his spray chart while with the Red Sox:
Devers hit more home runs up the middle and to the opposite field than to his pull side. Looking at his pull percentage of 34.5 percent with Boston and a 31.5 opposite field rate, this reinforces Devers willingness to hit the ball the other way and should keep him from too many shifts this year.
When trying to project someone with such a limited profile, it can be tough. Expectations often outweigh practicality. Before addressing his projections from various sites available on Fangraphs, let’s begin with his expected statistics from last year. Devers expected slash line of .268/.323/.470 looks a bit less enticing than his actual line from the season above. Also, Devers expected on-base average of .336 sits eight points below his weighted on-base average (wOBA) but the biggest drop lies within his BABIP of .342 versus an xBABIP of .317 last year.
All of this hints at Devers seeing some regression in his average. This may occur in the first half, then he hits his stride or perhaps the projection modules seeing Devers hit between .273-to-.285 may be close. Repeating last year’s average would be icing on the cake, but paying for it does not seem salient based on his expected numbers. One area Devers did stay consistent, his expected home runs of 10.2 aligns with his 10 with Boston last season.
As for the rest of his projections, Devers seems projected to hit sixth this year. Last year, the hitters for Boston in this spot scored 79 runs with a cumulative 70 RBI. With a better lineup this year, there could be growth in both categories, but not a tremendous one. Regarding his runs projection, most see 74 on the year with ZiPS coming in highest with 80 projected. His RBI fall in a similar range from 76-to-85. ZiPS ranked the most bullish in terms of power projecting Devers for 27 home runs. It’s possible, but if he reaches this number, will it affect his average keeping in mind the rolling chart above?
Rafael Devers possesses talent which resulted in his strong debut last year. One cannot simply extrapolate his numbers out for a full season due to the volatility of predicting baseball. Understand his trends, discern in season and if targeting Devers, do so with tangible expectations. He’s fully capable of a 25 home run and 70 RBI season with a .275 average. Anything he exceeds only makes for return on investment.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, MiLB.com, xSTATS.org, MLBfarm.com