2018 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Whit Merrifield - FREE

Whit Merrifield

At a time when many fantasy owners target stolen bases throughout their drafts and auctions, Whit Merrifield merits attention. However, representing a late bloomer who broke through last year, can he repeat his statistics from 2017 during which he hit .288 with 19 home runs and 34 stolen bases? Only two players hit at least 15 home runs with more than 30 steals last year, Merrifield and Jose Altuve, haughty company.

Before taking Merrifield for stolen base upside, the 34 stolen bases last year represent his highest total in the category in any season at any level. It’s not common a player hits a speed spike at Age-28, but, it’s on record. Not only did Merrifield surprise with the speed, but the power as well. Yes, he’s hit fly balls in the minor leagues, but he hit more home runs last year with Kansas City then he did the previous two seasons combined between Double-A, Triple-A and his major league at bats.

Plus, Merrifield’s career slash in the minors of .274/.334/.403 also screams regression. Whether it’s a different baseball or Merrifield finally finding confidence at the highest level, trying to discern how his 2018 season could finish proves difficult. Merrifield hit .288/.324/.460 last season along with scoring 80 runs and 78 RBI. According to xSTATS, Merrifield’s slash lines actually align to his results. On xSTATS, Merrifield’s expected slash of .288/.324/.474 shows potential growth in power. This can be found in his expected home runs of 22 versus his actual 19 last year.

As for his underlying metrics, xSTATS found Merrifield’s expected on-base average of .336 higher than his weighted on-base average (.332) and not much variance in his xBABIP of .302 versus BABIP (.308). There’s a potential for the average to slightly decline, however, Merrifield improved his ability to get on base last year.

Merrifield’s batted ball profile illustrates how he migrated his fly ball rates towards his past results in the minors. During his debut with Kansas City in 2016, Merrifield finished with a 29.8 fly ball percentage, which increased to 40.5 percent last season, but so too did his home run per fly ball percentage. With a full season of data, he did see his hard hit percentage decline, but with no collapse in his power profile. In fact, during the second half, Merrifield hit 12 home runs in 320 at-bats in 75 games. Here’s how it looked in spray chart form courtesy of MLBfarm.com:

Merrifield’s pull heavy with the power, but it worked for him. In terms of his plate discipline, he cut his swinging strike percentage slightly while increasing his contact. Overall, it’s a pretty steady skill set during his time with the Royals. His ability to hit anywhere in the lineup also enhances his counting statistics on a team which will need to produce runs by being aggressive on the bases this season.

Even though xSTATS suggests last year did not happen by luck, all the projection systems baked in much regression. Here’s Merrifield’s projected numbers from three different sites:

It’s rare to see Steamer or ZiPS as the higher projections on a player. All three agree on a decline in home runs in spite of the expected total posted by Merrifield last season and his propensity to hit fly balls. Paying for him to hit within a range of .273-to-.281 seems palatable with hopes for a repeat of last year, just do not account for it.

The largest divide by range lies in Merrifield’s stolen base total. With the knowledge he swiped 34 bases last year with a past best of 32 in the minors, he should see a smaller number of steals this year. Plus, Merrifield did get caught stealing seven times out of 27 attempts after the All-Star break last year. Of course, with the knowledge the Royals may still green light him to spark the offense remains in the back of investor’s minds. To arrive at a fair expected number for 2018, hope Merrifield steals 23-to-25 bases with 15 home runs.

If Merrifield can grow his power towards his expected number from last year, he becomes more valuable. In spite of being a late breakout, underlying suggests it’s not a fluke. Just be realistic in expectations when targeting this year. It’s easier to be pleasantly surprised by a player than disappointed expecting too much.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, MLBfarm.com, xSTATS.org, MiLB.com, THE BAT by Derek Carty, Steamerprojections.com, ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski