| Age: | 30 |
| Bats/Throws: | L/L |
| Height/Weight: | 6'4", 212 lbs |
| Position: | Relief Pitcher |
Expecting regression from Aroldis Chapman in 2017 following his heavy usage during the Cubs World Series run made sense. Watching Chapman pitch his way out of the ninth inning after returning to the Yankees did not. It’s easy to focus on the fact he’s never recorded 40 saves in a season or surpassed 60 innings once the last four years. However, when Chapman’s locked in, he’s an imposing closer with the ability to strike out anyone. Hence his appearances in high leverage for Joe Maddon.
But when a fantasy owner invests in a closer in the early rounds, they expect results. Due to the volatility of the position, part of the allure of targeting Chapman lies within his high strikeout totals along with knowing he will take the mound in the ninth inning with a lead. Things fell apart last year for Chapman. Not only during his brief respite not closing for the Yankees, but he registered his lowest strikeout percentage in a season since 2011 with an ERA of 3.22 and a 1.13 WHIP, not top-three closer worthy material.
For those seeking good news, it’s found within his expected statistics. According to xSTATS, Chapman’s bbFIP (batted ball fielding independent pitching) of 2.31 rated below his FIP or xFIP last year. Encouraging. Chapman’s expected average (.183) and BABIP (.266) also fell below his actual numbers. Most important, exit velocities of balls in play returned to his 2016 levels. Keep these tucked away for the conclusion.
When looking at his velocities, not much seemed different, even though it looked like Chapman pitched through injuries last year. Here’s his career velocity chart courtesy of Brooks Baseball:
He never reached his peaks from 2016, but near the end of the season, Chapman finally seemed dominant again, especially in September. After returning to the ninth inning in the last month of the season, Chapman surged. Over his last 12 innings of work, he recorded 17 strikeouts against two walks, zero earned runs allowed, a 41.5 strikeout percentage and a 0.42 WHIP. This was the Chapman people reached for as a top tier closer. It’s purely speculation, but hone in on his vertical release point. During August, the lowest depression in the chart precedes his terrific last month of the season:
Not much went right for Chapman last year, but his strong finish could portend a return to dominance in 2018 at a depressed price. Simple migration of his numbers from last year towards his expected numbers would be a start, then just keep him on the mound for 65 innings on a team in playoff contention with a loaded bullpen.
Before buying back in, it bears monitoring his collapse in some underlying statistics last year. First, Chapman turned in his lowest swinging strike percentage (13.5-percent) compared to his career rate of 17.2-percent. Due to this, his contact allowed spiked to a career apex of 73.2-percent versus a 64.1 career rate. In order to further confuse analysts, Chapman’s chase rate (swings and misses at pitches outside the strike zone) reached a career high at 34.9-percent, more than two points higher than his career mark.
Where did things go wrong? Could it be bad luck with some injury issues? Shifting back to Brooks Baseball, here’s his pitches from the last two years with usage, whiff per swing percentages and batting average against:
Illustrated above, Chapman did not benefit from past results, his velocity did drop slightly, but not enough to suggest he’s lost it as a top tier closer. Recency bias will allow owners to target him at a reduced price, but watching his start to the season will be key. Here’s a rolling 15-game chart from the last three years showing his strikeout, walk, ground ball and swinging strike percentages courtesy of Fangraphs:
Hope lies in Chapman closing the chasm between his swinging strike percentage and ground ball rates from last year in order to make a run at 100 strikeouts in a healthy campaign. With the knowledge of his lack of durability the last four years, paying full price comes with risk. Again, he’s a bargain this year, but not totally safe. However, Chapman could return to a top reliever if he carries over his release point from September and his strikeouts to the 40 percent range. Craig Kimbrel made a similar bounce back last season.
Since Chapman’s projections do not suggest too much variance in regards to performance, it comes down to how many innings he pitches. His projected ERA sits in the 2.41 (ZiPS) to 2.88 (THE BAT) range with a WHIP between 1.09 and 1.14. Innings marks where the sites split with a low water mark of 52 versus a high of 65 this year. This creates the split in his strikeouts ranging from 82-to-99 in the upcoming season.
With no discernible drop in velocity and potential rebound to full health, Aroldis Chapman could turn in his first 40 save season. Or, he could struggle once again and lose his job with a new manager due to the veritable depth which exists in high leverage for the Yankees to deploy. For the risk averse, the first 40 save season of his career could be in the offing with a return to triple digit strikeouts. At a relative discount, this may be the year to find out.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, BrooksBaseball.net, xSTATS.org, Steamerprojections.com, ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborksi, THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty, RosterResource.com