2018 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Jose Abreu

Jose Abreu

After winning the Rookie of the Year Award in 2015, it’s been tough for Jose Abreu to repeat his level of production during it, until last year. Abreu did turn in his fourth consecutive season with at least 100 RBI, but he also hit above .300 for the first time since his rookie campaign, scored a career best 95 runs, bashed 33 home runs and even stole three bases with a .304/.354/.552 slash line. It also marked his first on-base plus percentage above .900 since his debut.

At a time when many fantasy owners gravitate towards youth and upside, Abreu seems to be gaining confidence in his comfortable surroundings in Chicago playing the shadow of the cross town rival Cubs. He also reported to camp at a lighter weight joking he’d like to steal more bases this year.

Beneath the perceived bounce back, Abreu made adjustments which could make a repeat probable. For starters, using his xSTATS (expected statistics) as a guide, his slash from last year aligns almost exactly with his totals on xSTATS: .303/.353/.353 with 34.9 expected home runs (higher than his season total). Plus, his expected on-base average of 38 percent bodes well.

Shifting over to Statcast, Abreu averaged 406 feet on his home runs with his average fly ball rate reaching 328 feet last year. Abreu also put 230 batted balls into play at 95 MPH or higher, totaling 45.5 percent of the time, on the way to his 33 home runs. Even though he lost a home run or two to luck, Abreu finished within three of his career high.

Abreu traded some line drives (three percent) for fly balls without sacrificing his home run per fly ball rate. Especially in the second half during which Abreu hit a robust .312/.360/.591 with a .279 isolated power, weighted runs created plus (wRC+) of 148 and a .392 weighted on-base average (wOBA). His hard-hit percentage surged to 41.6 percent, home run per fly ball percentage to 20 percent (best in a split since the first half of his rookie season) and averaging a home run every 16 at-bats.

But it’s not even the best part. Abreu recorded his career best numbers in regards to plate discipline across the board. He increased his contact rate to 79.1 percent, lowered his swings and misses outside the strike zone to 33 percent while reducing his swinging strike percentage to 10 percent. So, Abreu hit the ball harder and more often, especially in the strike zone, while increasing his hard hit percentage. More interested yet?

Over the last three seasons, Jose Abreu appears to be one of the most consistent players at his position averaging 619 at-bats, 83 runs, 29 home runs, 101 RBI and a .296/.351/.508 slash line. During this time frame, here’s his 30-game rolling chart with his wOBA, hard hit percentage and fly ball rate:

During the second half, Abreu’s fly ball percentage and hard-hit rates finally mirrored each other in growth without sacrificing his wOBA. He’s motivated to build on last year, in shape and happy with his family back with him.

Abreu also does not show split weaknesses which his launch angle chart courtesy of BaseballSavant.com illustrates:

Abreu hit .288 versus right handed pitchers last year with 23 home runs in 472 at-bats. He raked southpaws for 10 homers in 149 at-bats with a .365 average. Last year also showed no signs of a home and road disparity for Abreu either.

Forecasting his season seems fairly vanilla to the casual observer but take heed of the step forward Abreu took in regards to his plate discipline, hard hit percentage and more fly balls. He did not totally buy into the revolution but motivated to build on his bounce back to 30-plus homers and seeking a fifth straight year with 100 RBI along with a few more steals could mean 5-to-7 this season. It seems small but would result in a slight boost to his final rankings.

While others chase the next big thing, hope Jose Abreu falls into your lap at an auction or draft. There’s safety in his baseline data and some upside in the underlying statistics.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, xSTATS.org, BaseballSavant.com