2018 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Joey Gallo

Joey Gallo

Flawed superheroes litter the landscape in movies, but no hitter seems to encapsulate the new wave of major league hitter more than Joey Gallo. He’s big, talented, hits mammoth home runs, pulls the ball, predominantly hits fly balls while drawing his share of walks and striking out, often. After repeating Triple-A in 2016, Gallo played 145 games with the Rangers and launched 41 home runs with a .209/.333/.537 slash line. There’s many career paths he could follow, but comparisons center on Chris Davis, Khris Davis and even Aaron Judge moving forward. As for fantasy, what can owners expect from Gallo in the year ahead?

It seems like much of the same. Starting with Statcast, Gallo ranks fourth in barrels per plate appearance with 10.3, only Judge, J.D. Martinez and Giancarlo finished higher in the category. Gallo’s average home run traveled 419 feet and he finished tied for second in average fly ball distance last year. In regards to his power, Gallo’s .327 isolated power only trailed the two new Yankee teammates listed above and Gallo finished with a 30.1 home run per fly ball percentage in spite of hitting fly balls 54.2 percent of the time.

Finishing up his batted ball profile, Gallo pulled the ball 49.6 percent of the time and produced hard contact, using Fangraphs metrics, over 46 percent last season. League averages in regards to these categories, listed below for reference, allow Gallo to stand out:

• Home run per fly ball percentage: 13.7
• Pull percentage: 39.8
• Fly ball percentage: 35.5
• Hard contact: 31.8

Here’s how his 30-game rolling game chart with some of these categories highlighted looks using a Fangraphs chart to illustrate:

While all of this makes Gallo enticing, can he improve on the plate discipline deficiencies pitcher exploited last year? Starting with a look back, Gallo’s been able to adjust to his new level as evidenced by his gains in walks and lowering strikeouts during his two stops at Triple-A. During his first go around in 2015, Gallo recorded an 11.8 walk percentage and 39.5 strikeout rate in 53 games. Gallo cut his strikeouts by just under five percent the next year while improving his walk percentage almost four percent.

This seems to translate to Gallo’s splits last year. In the first half he walked 13.4 percent of the time while striking out 38.5 percent. After the break, Gallo slightly improved his walk rate to 14.9 percent but did cut his strikeout percentage below 35 percent. In spite of this, Gallo still registered the lowest contact percentage of all qualified hitters (59.1 percent) trailing Khris Davis (68.7 percent) and Aaron Judge (67.6 percent).

Gallo also finished with a 19.2 swinging strike percentage, again the worst among qualified hitters. It does feel like fantasy owners will trade some contact for the tantalizing power upside lying in Gallo’s bat and hope he started to adjust in the second half. Players hitting home runs every 10.95 at-bats do not fall out of trees, even with the power growth in baseball last season. Going back to the first half, Gallo hit .194/.313/.508 with 21 home runs and 112 strikeouts in 248 at-bats. Over his 201 at-bats after the All-Star break, he slashed .229/.357/.572 with 20 home runs and only 84 strikeouts, much more palatable. Here’s how his two halves look using the spray charts from MLBfarm.com:

First Half

Second Half

Gallo really transitioned his power to the pull side in the second half but still can reach the seats in any ballpark. Although he makes the least amount of contact in baseball, his power could mask some of his flaws. Being able to draw walks and improving upon his pitch selection could provide Gallo a chance to hit 50 home runs as soon as this season. Overall, his season long value will be determined by if he can hit over .230 with 40 or more home runs. One seems likelier than the other. 

To get a sense of how Gallo’s being projected, here’s a snapshot of how three different systems see his upcoming season:

It feels like the projection systems agree hitting .230 will be a bigger challenge for Gallo than reaching 35 or more home runs. Looking at the prospective batting order, Gallo could hit fifth this season which would put him in line for better counting statistics than he totaled last year as well. In fact, during the 25 game Gallo hit fifth last season, he scored 16 runs with seven home runs and 16 RBI in only 86 at-bats with a .244/.381/.558 slash line. Unsustainable, sure, but interesting to say the least.

With at least 500 at-bats, Gallo should hit at least 40 home runs, last year’s paces along with the second half uptick in production support this. Gallo’s average and overall slash lines seem more open for debate. His average draft position thus far in the NFBC places him as the 14th first baseman and 12th third baseman taken in drafts just before the 10th round. Well behind similarly flawed power hitters like Aaron Judge and Khris Davis. Although home runs seems to be more plentiful, those craving power can combine a Dee Gordon or Trea Turner type with Gallo for a two-player hybrid to combine the power with the steals in order to balance the average. Plus, Gallo did swipe seven bases last year, so he’s not devoid of reaching double digit steals either.

Dual eligibility at the corner infield position, power, on-base tendencies with fly balls pulled to his power side of the field paired with hard contact makes Joey Gallo a worthy risk in drafts. Any gains in contact or reducing his swinging strike percentage would make him even more appealing moving forward. Batting average risk heeded, but Steamer only projects 14 players to hit at least 35 home runs. If investing in Gallo, do so wisely. There’s a way to build a roster and incorporate his potential .225-to-.235 average range. With a baseline of 40 home runs, 80 runs and RBI plus a handful of steals, Gallo’s stock could rise if his plate discipline follows suit.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, Baseball-Reference.com, MiLB.com, MLBfarm.com, BaseballSavant.com, Steamerprojections.com, ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski