| Age: | 28 |
| Bats/Throws: | R/R |
| Height/Weight: | 6'3", 242 lbs |
| Position: | Relief Pitcher |
It’s been a tale of two seasons for Jeurys Familia. From leading the majors with 51 saves in 2016 to missing most of last year due to the diagnosis of a blood clot in his right armpit, he’s seen both the highs and lows as a closer. For fantasy owners, he’s also transitioned from a reliable workhorse to a pitcher with many potential outcomes in the year ahead. Of course, this does not take into account a new manager with the Mets preaching a progressive approach to the bullpen either, thus adding another wrinkle.
Mickey Callaway’s taken a step back from his original premise suggesting Familia would get the majority of saves without the label of a traditional closer, but it opens the door for doubt. A tenuous word for fantasy owners. When taking into account Familia’s future, last year will be difficult to ignore, but needs perspective.
Familia did not lose velocity, rather the strike zone with his first double digit walk percentage since 2013. It’s possible his physical ailment contributed to this, but it bears monitoring during Familia’s outings in the spring. Since his WHIP can fluctuate, control could be a determining factor in his baseline value along with possible ceiling.
In order to assess where Famila’s headed, here’s a look at his some of his predictive statistics from the last three years along with his xSTATS for comparison’s sake:
Keying on the relationship between his number above, the xAVG seems to be consistent despite performance thus underscoring the importance of Familia keeping traffic off of the bases, especially in regards to walks. His ERA, ERA- and bbFIP also align in 2015 and 2016 but crater during Familia’s limited sample last year. While it does not cause one to panic, it needs to be tucked away. Next, here’s Familia’s trends the last three years in regards discipline factors along with his three year averages included:
Once again, his 2015 and 2016 seasons seem in unison with last year representing the outlier. It’s likely health played a role in this. In order to discern, a look at his pitch usage along with performance last year on BrooksBaseball.net seemed like the logical next step.
Familia’s velocity did not seem to suffer, but he did lose some effectiveness of his split-fingered fastball with his whiff per swing percentage dropping to 33.3 percent compared to over 44 percent in each of the two prior seasons. Due to the numbness associated with his injury, it’s entirely possible he lost the feel of the pitch, but it, like the walk rates, bear monitoring.
With the knowledge of Familia’s performance dips in 2017 associated with his eventual surgery to remove a blood clot, how can one assess his upcoming season? Spring games will not provide the whole picture, but focus on his command in and out of the strike zone along with the effectiveness of his splitter.
Since the projection systems appear to be divided on how to valuate Familia, here’s three different ones along with his 162-game averages courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com:
Trying to predict his outcomes without sifting through the rhetoric surrounding his usage or seeing him in action will be difficult. If Familia does receive the chance to save 75-to-85 percent of the Mets games, he should return value based on where he’s being drafted (currently in the 12th round in NFBC ADP). With health, Familia should come close to the 65 innings baseline above, but he’s not a high strikeout pitcher and the WHIP will depend on the walk rate. If Familia can repeat a WHIP in the 1.15 range with 70 strikeouts, he’s likely to reach his career ERA of 2.63 with 30 saves.
However, if the walk rate ebbs towards his level from last year, Familia could pitch his way out of the ninth inning with a manager wanting to make an impression and used to fluctuation in the bullpen during his time in Cleveland. Invest wisely if targeting Familia this season.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, xSTATS.org, BrooksBaseball.net, Baseball-Reference.com, Steamerprojections.com, ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski