MLB Streaks & Trends: The Ortega Special

Who's Hot

Bryce Harper, Philadelphia

Providing statistics across the board, since the start of the second half Harper's slashing .397/.548/.730 with 16 runs, three home runs, eight RBI and five stolen bases over 84 plate appearances spanning 20 contests. Within this time frame he's drawn 21 walks (three intentional) versus 12 strikeouts helping move his team to a half-game behind the Mets in the race for the National League East. He's also recorded 51 batted ball events with eight barrels (15.7 percent) and 28 hard hits (exit velocity of 95 MPH or better) for a 54.9 hard hit percentage. 

Rafael Ortega, Chicago Cubs

If players in your league left him on your waiver wire, it's time to change his status. Ortega's hitting lead-off for the Cubs after the trade deadline and hitting .403/.448/.694 in the second half with 12 runs, four home runs, 11 RBI and three stolen bases. He cannot maintain a batting average on balls in play above .500, but he's produced a hard hit rate of 46.7 percent of his 45 batted ball events suggesting his uptick in power may stick and anyone providing stolen bases should garner more attention than he's receiving in fantasy. 

Jorge Polanco, Minnesota

A slow start to his season prompted some to give up on Polanco but he's been hot since the All-Star break with 15 runs, six home runs, 14 RBI and two stolen bases in 19 games accruing 81 plate appearances. He's hitting .360/.407/.653 in this time frame and propelling the Twins offense after the trade deadline lapsed. Seeing how he handles producing six barrels (10 percent) among his 60 batted ball events with a 35 percent hard hit percentage may determine how to project him next season. For now, ride the heater. 

Who's Not

Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers

Dropping to eighth in the lineup and hitting .150/.215/.267 in the second half over 65 plate appearances with one home run and 12 runs plus RBI does not inspire much confidence for the rest of the season. Coming off of shoulder surgery and tweaking his swing continue depressing his results for fantasy purposes and shallow league players may need to move on at this point unless there's room on the bench for Bellinger. 

Matt Chapman, Oakland

Earlier this season, he appeared on the hot list and seemed like his season would turn around. However, his team added insurance at the deadline acquiring Josh Harrison who can play second or third base. Chapman's logged 17 games in the second half with a .156/.299/.297 slash line producing three home runs and six RBI, but with a .219 batting average on balls in play, a .235 wOBA and weighted runs created plus of 50, or 50 points below league average. Of more concern, his inflated 41.4 strikeout rate in these 70 plate appearances shows no signs of improvement in the weeks ahead. 

Trent Grisham, San Diego

Headed for a platoon, Grisham's slashing .180/.286/.230 with five runs, no home runs, six RBI and two stolen bases after the All-Star break over 70 plate appearances and 18 games. His .049 isolated power and .244 wOBA could result in continued at-bats near the bottom of the lineup along with less playing time unless he improves. Less than ideal news for a player taken in the fifth round in preseason drafts. 

Migration to the Mean

Jarred Kelenic, Seattle

Trying to merge expectations with results while assessing Kelenic gets tricky. He cratered in his first exposure to the league, earning a demotion back to Triple-A. However, he's starting to emerge and adjusting to MLB pitching hitting with three home runs his last seven games and three multiple hit games in this same time frame after recording two such events during his first 33 games in the majors. With just under two months remaining, his evaluation for 2022 becomes more intense, especially since his team's vying for a spot in the playoffs: 

• .138 batting average versus a .191 expected batting average (xBA) - plus 53 points
• .250 slugging percentage versus a .319 expected slugging (xSLG) - plus 69 points
• .220 wOBA versus a .269 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) - plus 49 points

David Bote, Chicago Cubs

Moves ahead of the trade deadline may provide Bote with more playing time until the end of the season. He's an intriguing option in deeper formats with eligibility at second and third base in many leagues. If his numbers move towards his expected ones fueled by strong quality of contact metrics, he may be a sneaky source of batting average for those in need of help in the category: 

• .202 batting average versus a .253 xBA - plus 51 points
• .344 slugging percentage versus a .444 xSLG - plus 100 points
• .276 wOBA versus a .339 xwOBA - plus 63 points