LCS-LEC Loser’s Finals

(+165) Rogue v G2 Esports (-210)

(+185) TSM v Team Liquid (-250)

Loser’s finals are upon us for both LCS and LEC. G2 return after being knocked down by MAD Lions in Winner’s finals, challenged by #2 seed Rogue, led by strong solo laners and a relatively solid bottom lane. TSM edged out 100 Thieves despite some rough early games through their teamfight superiority, they match up against Team Liquid, a team known for their strong early games and Alphari in particular, the strongest top laner NA has likely seen yet.

Captain

Santorin ($10,200)

Spica’s early games have been abysmal, even against teams that have similarly lacked in the early game such as 100 Thieves. Team Liquid are a team that are actually relatively capable in the early game of mustering an advantage, and I think Spica is at the end of his luck against an opponent like Santorin; it’s hard to remember how good Santorin actually is, just because the gap between #2 (Santorin himself) and #1 jungler in the league (Blaber) is galaxies away. Don’t sell Santorin short though; he comes in cheap and is a great player. If you prefer a larger gap in captain skill level in return for a less valuable position, I have to recommend Alphari for a secondary option.

Alternatives to consider: Alphari ($9,600)

Top Lane

Alphari ($6,600)

The UK top laner has absolutely demolished everyone in his path aside from perhaps EG’s Impact (who has already been eliminated). Huni stands no chance in the face of Alphari, who has a much more complete team by his side than EG’s Impact. Santorin can obliterate Spica, and Jensen is more active than PowerofEvil. Alphari’s raw laning talent cannot be underestimated, and he’s the best top laner left standing in play-offs; not even Cloud9’s Fudge can stand a chance. Huni has fallen time and time again against players like Alphari who have remarkable control of lane. I wouldn’t recommend flipping the EU matchup of Wunder and Odoamne, but for the first time, I slightly prefer Wunder relative to Odoamne due to his propensity to show up when it matters the most (and the fact he’s uninstalled WoW on his computer for this play-off set)

Alternatives to consider: Wunder ($6,400)

Jungle

Jankos ($7,000)

Inspired has been impressive, but I still perceive him as having the same problems he’s faced last year: when he’s against a team with an intelligent jungler, and especially in a meta that doesn’t favor his more early game ganking oriented junglers, he can struggle to have the same impact he’s had in the past. Jankos is way too veteran and versatile; it’s like comparing a piece of gold to a piece of platinum, they’re both expensive and useful, but one is simply more valuable than the other. The bigger gap is across the pond where Santorin should crush Spica.

Alternatives to consider: Santorin ($6,800)

Mid Lane

Caps ($7,400)

Rogue has fallen to G2 twice in the regular season, and MAD Lions destroyed Rogue while G2 put up a formidable battle. I just don’t think Larssen has what it takes to go all the way and strike down Caps at this point; while Larssen had an incredible regular split run, the fact that Larssen with a strong team behind him hasn’t been able to match Caps yet gives me grim prospects not only about this match, but for his future career to come. Caps is here to stay on top, and I think he will defeat Larssen on Saturday. For an alternative pick, I’d grab Jensen versus PoE- it’s likely to be an uneventful lane, but I think Jensen has more opportunities around the map due to his much stronger top side.

Alternatives to consider: Jensen ($7,200)

ADC

Rekkles ($7,800)

By far, the largest gap in skill from G2 to Rogue comes in the bottom lane. Hans sama is a world class ADC, but he doesn’t have the same dynamic quality Rekkles has, who can take over a game single handedly and win them the game. Hans just doesn’t have the same control, the same killer instinct, and he’s left shy of the #1 ADC spot for that. Rekkles’ support Mikyx has been looking, admittedly, pretty much like garbage against MAD Lions, but I still think his off days are better than most of Trymbi’s average days. For a different option, I’ll begrudgingly take Tactical, since I think Lost has been actually having a really good season.

Alternatives to consider: Tactical ($7,400)

Support

CoreJJ ($5,800)

CoreJJ is the best support playing on Saturday, sorry to all Mikyx fans. Miky’s performance against MAD really scarred me and makes me hesitate picking him, he isn’t the best support in EU, he’s not even the 2nd- but Trymbi is even worse. LIMIT, Kaiser, and maybe even Treatz all looked much better in form than Mikyx or Trymbi; I’d recommend sticking with Core, but if you had to, I’d take Mikyx on G2.

Alternatives to consider: Mikyx ($5,600)

Team

G2 Esports ($5,200)

G2’s ADC, jungle, and middle lane lend me the confidence in declaring them the winner. Hans just can’t rule a game like Rekkles can, and Larssen may have had his more conservative playstyle exploited; truthfully, that’s something I’d say of most of Rogue, their conservatism holds them back from unleashing their maximum potential. For a second choice, I have the TL top side crushing TSM.

Alternatives to consider: Team Liquid ($5,400)

Stacks

Rekkles & Caps

Both of these players are in contention for “best western player of all time” and for good reason: G2 dominated the regular split, their KDAs are massive, and they’re insane in teamfights where the majority of points are generated. They’re resource intensive which lends even more points, and they’re consistently great players.

Alphari & CoreJJ

Liquid’s top and support imports have the largest advantage over their respective TSM counter parts: Huni is a pubstomper top laner who performs best against the lower tier top laners with less confidence and will rack up kills even better than “better top laners” like Impact or Alphari, who prefer to just suffocate their opponent from the game. CoreJJ is a consistent roaming threat, in an all-in-one package which is hard to find from a support player.

Lost & PowerofEvil

Lost and PowerofEvil are the only two players I perceive as being able to deliver a win from Liquid. Tactical has been uncertain this post-season, and while both PowerofEvil and Lost have been slow in the early game, they can ramp up into teamfight machines. I think this match will matter a lot on how badly TL can crack TSM early.

Top Picks: Alphari, Rekkles, Santorin

Each of these guys brings something different: Alphari has unmatched lane prowess in the top laner, Rekkles is a premier hypercarry superstar who performs great in teamfights, and Santorin is versatile in how he can play both to scale and aggress in the early game against his opponents. Each of these guys face weaker opponents, so they’re nice pick-ups.

Top Value: PowerofEvil, Santorin, Tactical

Santorin being cheaper than Jankos is one to keep your eye out for: Inspired is harder to crack relative to Spica, and I think Santorin will run Spica down. Tactical is a full $400 cheaper than Rekkles, giving you a massive cash boost if needed, and PoE always puts up decent scores despite poor team performances elsewhere.