Hunter Renfroe – OF – San Diego Padres
Height: 6’1” Weight: 220 – Bats/Throws: R/R
2016 Stats (AAA) — .306/.336/.557, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 95 runs, 5 SB
2016 Stats (MLB) — .371/.389/.800, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 8 runs, 0 SB
Scouting Report
Hunter Renfroe is the No. 42 prospect in all of baseball and received an appetizer of the major leagues in 2016. San Diego selected Renfroe 13th overall in the 2013 MLB draft with the hopes of him being the run producer of the future. The right-hander sports some gaudy power, but with that comes a bit of an inflated strikeout percentage. His great arm makes him the perfect fit for a career out in right field, but he moves pretty well for his size, so he can be moved around without a major problem.
Renfroe has some big-time power and he’s going to compete for the league lead in home runs at one point or another during his career. During his minor league career, he slashed .281/.331/.494 with 77 home runs, .213 ISO and an impressive 22.3 AB/HR mark. That mark is close to what Mookie Betts (22.0) and George Springer (22.2) did in 2016. In just 11 games at the end of last season with the Padres, Renfroe smacked four home runs and homered once every 8.8 at-bats. Of course, he won’t replicate that mark in a full major league season, but the power is there and there is absolutely no denying that.
When Renfroe hits the ball, he hits it hard. In his 11-game stint last season, he made medium or hard contact 93.3 percent of the time late last year. Dating back to schooling days, that’s an A or a 4.0 grade point average! His powerful swing will allow him to rack up extra-bases in bunches and even Petco Park could struggle containing this kid. He has shown the ability to hit for power to all parts of the field, which is encouraging since he just turned 25 a couple months ago.
OK, let’s address the elephant in the room. If you extrapolate his performance in 11 games last season to a full 162-game season, you come up with 77 home runs, 283 RBI, 44 doubles and 118 runs scored. I give you the Colby Conway guarantee—yes, that does mean something—that he won’t reach that stat line in 2017. Renfroe has plus-plus power, but I’ll still take the under.
His swing can sometimes get lengthy, which is what gets him into some other problems. Like many power hitters, Renfroe does have a problem with strikeouts. He posted a 22.9 strikeout percentage in his minor league career, and while that number did dip to 13.9 percent in 11 games with the Padres at the end of 2016, his career mark will likely settle in around the low 20’s. His 35.7 O-Swing percentage highlighted just how important it is for Renfroe to stay in the strike zone. If he continues to chase pitches out of the zone, it’s going to be tough for him to ever hit for a higher batting average.
Another big step in his development as a professional will be his ability to take a walk. In his minor league career, he posted a below average 6.5 walk percentage. In 11 games with the Padres last season, he walked just 2.8 percent of the time. His lone base on balls was an intentional walk. Renfroe’s tendency to chase pitches out of the zone will keep his OBP down, but this another step in his maturation process.
He's going to strikeout a bit, he’s going to make hard contact often and he’s going to leave the yard. Renfroe is going to be a reliable power bat for San Diego for years to come, effective April 2017. There’s still aspects of his game that need to develop, most notably strike zone awareness, but once he can improve upon that, he’ll become a 30-homer bat with a quality batting average. Unlike some of these prospects, he’ll break camp with the team and be the everyday right fielder.
2017 Analysis
For the kind of power he possesses, his average draft position certainly seems worth the investment to me. He should get regular at-bats in the San Diego lineup, likely hitting in or very near the heart of the order. Petco Park is rather neutral in terms of favoring pitchers or hitters and while it can suppress some home run totals, Renfroe’s power is a bit of a different breed. Also, the stadium is doubles heaven, so there should be no concern about his ability to hit for extra bases in 2017.
Again, his strikeout percentage will hang right around the low 20’s this season, but 20-25 home runs and 75-80 RBI are certainly in play for the 25-year-old outfielder. If all goes well, don’t be surprised if he’s pushing 30 long balls and 90 RBI by the end of the 2017 campaign. The batting average will likely hang around .255, and hopefully he can learn to take a walk sooner rather than later. If you draft Renfroe in an OBP league, you certainly hope that he can trade more than a few strikeouts for some walks. Hitting behind Travis Jankowski, Manny Margot and Wil Myers will be more profitable than it may sound.
Hopefully we see him in the 2017 Home Run Derby, because he would put on a show.
Comparisons
Khris Davis – with a tad more speed
Current ADP
NFBC – 235.63
Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army – 200.70
RT Sports – 209.61