Pitchers to target (or not) highlight this week’s Week That Was.
Nick Pivetta : Nick Pivetta struck out 12 Friday night but took the loss because he gave up five runs in the process. Yes, I know his ERA is 4.85 but one must look further than that stat to see the true value here. First, his xFIP is just 3.25 showing he has pitched much better than that ERA. Second, the advanced metrics are very good: 12% swinging strike rate; 45% groundball rate; and a 64% first pitch strike rate. Need more reason for optimism? Ok, here you go: his K-rate is substantially up and his BB-rate is substantially down as compared to a year ago. Finally, the Phillies should win a lot of games going up against the Mets and the Marlins the next two months. Buy!
Luke Weaver : Luke Weaver threw six innings of two-run ball to beat the Cubs Friday night. Weaver struck out five and walked none. While the overall numbers do not make anyone sing and dance (4.70 ERA, 1.38 WHIP), there are real reasons for optimism. First, he has been better of late with three of his last four outings being very strong. Second, the advanced metrics are pretty good including a swinging strike rate of 10%. Third, the upcoming schedule is quite favorable with a home tilt with Colorado followed by road games against Miami and Kansas City. Finally, in his last three starts, the opponents are not making a lot of hard contact. I am buying as a post-hype value for the last two months of 2018.
Matt Boyd: Matt Boyd tossed six innings of two-run ball Wednesday while striking out seven and walking none. After a rough patch, Boyd appears to have righted the ship with two solid outings in a row. With a home game against Cincinnati followed by dates in Oakland and against the Twins, Boyd is a pitcher to own in deep leagues. [Note – Boyd has kept the ball on the ground the last couple of games (almost 50%) and if he can keep doing that, good things will continue to come his way].
Robbie Ray : Robbie Ray got a no decision this week but pitched pretty darn well going seven innings giving up just one run and four hits while striking out six. Two of his last three outings have been solid and they have been in tough venues – Wrigley and Coors. With two starts this week against Texas and the Giants (two teams going nowhere), Ray could add some value right away. Think about it.
Jon Lester : Lester pitched well this week going six innings giving up just four hits and one run while striking out seven. Lester’s year-long numbers are pretty sweet: 3.06 ERA; 1.23 WHIP. However, the K/BB ratio spells trouble and the advanced metrics say a bad turn is coming. Indeed, his xFIP is over 1.5 runs per game higher than his ERA. This is not surprising given that the swinging strike rate, groundball rate and first pitch strike rate are all below average. Lester is a great competitor and the Cubs are still very good. However, the numbers say sell high while you can.
And now, the moment you have been waiting for -- Schultz says: “Summer is my time to unwind, attend music festivals and rejuvenate. I will be back with the fantasy baseball wisdom in one week’s time.”
Response: Ok, I made that up. Schultz is off this week. So instead I will make this observation: With Judge and Sanchez on the shelf, where would the Yankees be without 21-year-old Gleyber Torres to step up and hit in the middle of the lineup?