Many behave as if finding the next fantasy star is the holy grail of fantasy baseball. When we succeed in that quest we strut around like proud peacocks with our colorful feathers on display for all to see. However, finding the next superstar is not the end goal – winning championships is.
Hmmm, that is an odd intro to a “next star” column right? Well, I have a point (yes, I know you are thinking – “make it”). My point is that finding the next star is only relevant if you pay the right price, do not jump a year early and your selection helps you win a fantasy baseball title. With that goal in mind, here are some names of future stars that you should keep on your radar
HITTERS
Miguel Sano, Twins
Sano has long been a Wolfman (of “Colton and the Wolfman” of course) favorite and there is good reason. Sano hit 18 homers, drove in 52 runs and posted a gaudy .385 OBP in just 279 at-bats while playing home games in a pitchers’ park at the tender age of 22. Yep, there is a lot to like. While the .401 BABIP says some correction is coming, the fact that Sano posted double-digit walk rates at every level says the batting eye is solid and will remain so. If Sano switches to the outfield his value will increase as he will have that third base eligibility without having to play that position. Yes, I know the Rules of Engagement say you cannot pay full value for a guy who has not produced for more than half a season. However, the discount does not need to be as high for Sano as it does for Hector Olivera as Sano’s team is better and he has other indicators of success. As a final note, check this out. It is not all home runs Sano has. In addition to the bombs, he posted a gaudy 25-percent line drive rate – a rate that shows he hits the ball hard early and often.
Corey Seager, Dodgers
At the precious age of 21, Kyle’s little brother raked to a .337 average and .425 OBP in his first 113 major league plate appearances. Wow. Corey showed a very mature approach to major league hitting by patiently posting a sweet 12.4-percent walk rate. If he continues that patience and maturity, his chances of a strong 2016 are high. However, there is a warning sign – that walk rate was nearly double his minor league walk rate so some correction could be coming. Given that the Dodgers should be good again, and that Seager will qualify at a scarce middle infield position, he is a player I’m targeting if others get nervous. If you want more reasons why I’m high on this Dodger, check this out: not only did Seager, unlike most rookies, keep the strikeouts in check, he hit no (yes zero) infield flies (automatic outs) in his 113 plate appearances.
Hector Olivera, Braves
On the surface, not much can be gleaned from what was largely a lost season for Olivera. His .253 average, two homers and 11 RBI in 79 big league at-bats tells us nothing. However, the highly touted Cuban import did make good contact (85 percent) and was a bit unlucky (.277 BABIP) so better things should come. Also, knowing what team he will play for and what position he will play should help him mentally. Of course, it does not hurt that he will be playing left field yet retain third base eligibility as it is always nice to fill a more scarce position with a player who is not going to endure the wear and tear of the hot corner. Bottom line here – expect better things but do not pay full price or get into a bidding war. Olivera has no history of major league success and the Braves are not likely to score many runs so his opportunities could more limited than those of Seager or Sano. 2017 looks better than 2016.
Byron Buxton, Twins
Buxton is still only 22 but he has been under intense scrutiny in the fantasy world for quite some time. Fact is with all that talent, all you have thus far is an injury-prone guy with only 129 AB of mediocre results in the show. I tell you that not to disparage Buxton, but to get you to be careful. Do not overbid in re-draft leagues. However, those in dynasty or keeper leagues, well, that is a different story. His 22 steals and 13 homers in half a minor league season in 2015 portends great things to come. He will be a good player in 2016 but 2017 is the target year. It will take a huge jump in contact and walk rates to get him to star status before 2017 arrives. Proceed accordingly.
Domingo Santana, Brewers
There is no question that Santana can hit for power. In his first exposure to the big league pitching, Santana showed good pop with eight homers in 160 at bats. The better news is that he showed a more mature approach at the plate than many expected. Specifically, he combined power with a solid 10-percent-plus walk rate. Yes, Santana will strike out a lot but he will hit homers and will play on a Brewers team that should score a lot of runs so long as Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy and Co. stay healthy. My main concern here is whether he can handle center field and whether the rigors of that position will affect his hitting. If he is penciled in at that position, take a couple bucks off of your bid price.
*For more see Ray Flowers’ write-up on Santana in the 30 Fantasy Baseball Strategies section.
Jurickson Profar, Rangers
Here is a guy who seems to always be hurt. Worse, I have personally seen him fail to hustle despite being a young player fighting for a job. However, he has worked hard to get healthy and the first signs in the Arizona Fall League were encouraging. Profar registered more walks than strikeouts in the AFL. People forget that Profar made the majors at 19 and is still just 22. It is not clear where Profar will play or even if he will break camp but he is a guy who held his own against much older competition in the minors and could arrive early in 2016 and stay late. Profar is not a fantasy team centerpiece but he is exactly the kind of late-round, high-upside guy who wins you fantasy leagues.
PITCHERS
Kevin Gausman, Orioles
Loyal readers know that I have a roto man-crush on Gausman. I still shake my head when I think about how the Orioles grossly mismanaged the righty. The skills are surely there and they show up in the advanced metrics despite the absurd shuttling between majors and minors and relief and starting: average fastball velocity over 95mph, K/BB ratio over 4-to-1, and a swinging strike percentage approaching 11 percent. Want more proof? Despite the abusive yo-yo use, Gausman posted the best line drive percentage, walk percentage, swinging strike percentage and infield fly percentage of his major league career in 2015. If the Orioles simply insert Gausman in the rotation and let him roll he will be a star. Book it. I’m all in for 2016.
Luis Severino, Yankees
As good as he is, the addition of Aroldis Chapman will make Severino even better. The Yankees will be able to be more careful with the young fireballer as they can save innings on his arm without costing him or the team wins. With an average fastball velocity of over 95 mph in the bigs, there is no question Severino has a big time major league arm. On the soft data side, Severino did not seem affected by New York media on his way to a very impressive 2.89 ERA, 1.20 WHIP first impression. When we dig a little deeper we find that Severino got ahead of hitters with an above average first strike percentage and kept the ball on the ground 50 percent of the time – a number that is well above the AL average and critical to success in the bandboxes in the AL East. There is a ton to like here. Be careful not to overpay via the Yankee premium but do not hesitate to invest.
Jon Gray, Rockies
Yes, I know he pitches in Colorado. However, young Mr. Gray throws gas (94-plus average velocity), struck out nearly a batter per inning in the bigs and posted a K/BB ratio that was nearly 3-to-1. Yes, I also know Gray posted an ugly ERA of 5.53 in Colorado but the xFIP of 3.84 says he pitched a lot better than the ERA would have you believe. The .391 BABIP against provides further proof that Gray was unlucky in 2015. With a strong swinging striker percent of over 10 percent and that plus velocity, there are good reasons to believe Gray will be better than people think and will be underpriced due to his home park. Pounce if there is a solid discount.
Drew Hutchison, Blue Jays
The 2015 Opening Day starter was one of my favorite future stars on whom I was really high going into 2015. Unfortunately, I was a year early. Hutch finished 2015 with a 5.57 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. Ugly. He is in this column because one should not give up on the 25-year-old righty too fast. He simply pitched better than the numbers show. First, he got unlucky as his 64-percent strand rate and .347 BABIP show. Second, the advanced metrics show better performance than the ERA and WHIP would lead one to believe: 65-percent first pitch strike percentage with a swinging strike percentage approaching 10 percent – both numbers that should have resulted in better success. Third, the xFIP of 4.21 while not studly is surely better than the 5.57 ERA. Bargain to be had here.
Carlos Rodon, White Sox
The 23-year-old lefty got his feet wet in 2015 and looked darn good striking out 139 batters in 139 innings. Yes, the 1.44 WHIP needs work, but again, he is only 23. When you have a lefty who throws hard and gets strikeouts you are way ahead of the game. He needs to cut down on the walks and throw more first pitch strikes. He will when he matures. If that happens this year, Katie bar the door!
Jose Berrios, Twins
A 175K/38 BB in the minors in 2015 is eye opening. One cannot build their fantasy team around Berrios as he is only 21 and will not likely break camp with the Twins. However, Berrios could be the best pitcher in their rotation well before Memorial Day. A young kid who throws gas in the mid-90s in a pitchers’ park is hard to ignore. Indeed, this is exactly the type of inexpensive pickup that will win you a fantasy league this year.
Please use the information above carefully. None of these players are replacements for the Mike Trout’s or Clayton Kershaw’s of the world. Rather, they are up-and-coming talents who should be pursued at the right price and let fly elsewhere should someone else be willing to pay for upside not yet achieved.