Week That Was: LABR AL 2015 Recap
For those who do not know, LABR is the “League of Alternative Baseball Reality” – the granddaddy of fantasy baseball expert leagues started by John Hunt and now ruled benevolently by Steve Gardner of USA Today. Today, I take a look at how team Colton and the Wolfman (Rick Wolf, Stacie Stern and me) did at what by any measure was a fast and furious auction. The draft started off great as we three donned our respective Josh Towers lucky 7 jerseys to pay homage to the hurler who lead us to our second of three LABR titles. . . . Ok, I know, you want the player analysis. Understandable.
Here is who we own and why:
Catchers: We made the conscious decision not to spend on catcher in the AL largely because we could not agree on whether we liked McCann or Gattis better and because they ended up going for too darn much. So, we went cheap with Geovany Soto and James McCann for a buck each. Yes, this could be a downside for team CTW but there is good reason to think both can outperform their meager auction price. Soto is only 32, hit double digit dingers five years in a row from 2008-12 (twice at a .280 clip) and has only Tyler “dreadful average assured” Flowers in front of him. James “the other” McCann is behind two catchers who have done nothing and less than that in recent years while JMac himself hit .295 with 7 HR and 9 SB in AAA.
Corner Infielders: Chris Davis $26; Carlos Santana $28; Kendrys Morales $9. I have to say I just absolutely love this set of CI. Chris Davis missed 24 games, had the worst year of his career and still hit 26 HR. Given that Davis hit .276 and .286 in 2012 and 2013 with a total of 86 dingers, the odds of him bouncing back playing in that bandbox are strong indeed. Santana’s .231 average hides the fact that he was great in the second half hitting .254 with 15 HR and 53 RBI. With 3B eligibility but playing 1B all year, Santana is as close to a sure thing to go a minimum of 25-90 as exists. Finally, Kendrys Morales should be given a mulligan for 2014 given that he missed spring and the first 6 weeks of the season in an ill-advised holdout of sorts. A return to .280+ and 20 HR+ is very likely. For$ 9, I will take that all day and night.
Middle Infielders: Robinson Cano $30; Elvis Andrus $20; Alcides Escobar $17. Cano is still far and away the best 2B in baseball. He did not produce $35-40 in value last year. However, he should have a better year in year 2 in Seattle but even if he doesn’t, I will take .314, 14 HR, 10 SB and solid runs and rbi numbers. Who doesn’t love upside with a very high floor? As to the SS, both are in their prime and both are certain to put up the SB numbers – a key factor for our team that boasts power guys such as Davis, Santana, Cespedes, etc. No Stephen Drew or Nick Franklin types for us!
Outfield: Ellsbury $33; Cespedes $25; Viciedo $2; Rua $1; James Jones $1. We did go a bit top heavy here rather than spread the wealth. Given the top two stars provide serious power and speed and given there is real potential among the $1-2 picks, I like it. Everyone knows the Ellsbury story and I admit we paid a tad much. However, the speed is still real and most players perform better in year two after a huge contract. Cespedes is in a contract year and should benefit from playing side by side with and learning from two of the best hitters in the game – Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez. As to the cheapies – Viciedo is only 26, has hit 60 HR in the last three years and goes to a place in Toronto where only Justin Smoak and the likely to be traded Dioner Navarro stand in his way (note, by picking up Ezequial Carrera on reserve, we bettered our odds that we get production from a Toronto OF). Rua is the class of the applicants for the Texas LF job. Given that his approach (BB and CT rates) have gotten better at each new level, the odds of him succeeding and out-producing the $1 price tag are pretty strong. Finally, as to James Jones, the guy stole 27 bases in 28 attempts and has only the all-world (read sarcasm) platoon of Justin Ruggiano and Seth Smith in his way.
Utility: Jesus Montero $1. Why not? This guy came into camp 40 pounds lighter, seems serious, is still at an age where many are making their first real foray into major league ball and has only a Nelson Cruz injury or Ruggiano/Smith failure standing in his way.
Starting Pitching: Chris Tillman $13; Rick Porcello $12; Dallas Keuchel $9; Yovani Gallardo $4; T.J. House $5; Nick Tropeano $1; Dylan Bundy $1. I like this staff better than all those out there who are killing us for it (yes you Paul Sporer and Jason Collette – but we still love you guys). Admittedly, we look to be a bit low in strikeouts. Yes, if I had it to do again, I would have gone the extra buck on a Samardzija type. However, each of the top 5 guys has either a solid track record, a terrific groundball rate or both. Indeed Keuchel and House probably are the best GB pitchers in baseball (ground balls are least likely to leave the yard of course). Tropeano is one of those young guys with a devastating pitch (change up in Tropeano’s case) and opportunity who we love to roster cheap. As to Bundy, in LABR, it is important to roster someone you can reserve right away so you can cycle your reserve pitchers into that last spot based on matchups. Given that we rostered some pretty good pitchers on reserve – Elias, Lewis, Capuano and Whitley – this worked out well. Plus, Bundy is a potential lottery ticket after a month or two at AAA.
Relief Pitching: Street $16; Qualls $4. I know Huston Street gets hurt often. However, he saved 41 games last year, is safer than guys like Uehara and Rodney (age), Perkins, McGee and Doolittle (health) and Britton (low K rate and short track record), and is in a contract year. As to Qualls, we see him beating out Gregerson and Luke’s declining K rate and velocity. Even if Qualls closes for 6 out of the 26 weeks, he will earn $4. Big upside, low floor.
All in all, I like the team a lot. I would have preferred a touch more balance in the outfield and one 200 K pitcher, but you cannot have it all. In October, I will tell you how it worked out for real.
Final Thought: The Draft Guide is here! Want to know how to get your copy? Click on this link: http://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/flowers/19861/the-2015-fantasy-alarm-fantasy-baseball-draft-guide/. If you want a real shot at winning your league, DO IT NOW!