With Vegas sweeping Los Angeles, we’ve only got two games tonight. Boston is in Toronto with a 2-1 series lead, and Columbus is hosting Washington with the Jackets up 2-1. We’ve had big favorites almost every day of the playoffs so far, but Boston-Toronto opened at even money and Columbus is the slightest of favorites opening at -115. Below are game breakdowns of each game.
BOS @ TOR
If there’s chalk on this slate, it’s probably Boston’s top line as they’re the best trio going tonight, and they had a monster game earlier in the series. If you’re playing cash games, you’ll have to have exposure to them. But if you’re playing GPPs, it’s probably best to fade them and hope Toronto can hold them pointless for the second game in a row.
Boston’s best possession line at even strength in Game 3 was their third line centered by Riley Nash with David Backes and Danton Heinen on his wings. They skated primarily against Toronto’s third line at even strength. They won’t cost that much, so if you want a cheap, low-owned line stack to pair with a more expensive, chalkier options, this line is in play. Backes is the only one on the line who saw PP work in Game 3, but the line plays with Charlie McAvoy a lot at even strength who is the D-man on the second PP unit with Backes.
As for the Leafs, it was Patrick Marleau’s line that did the most damage in Game 3 with Marleau scoring twice and his line mates combing for three assists. Marleau’s line drew the matchup against Boston’s top line with Nazem Kadri out, and you assume they’ll get the same matchup since Toronto won the game. While Marleau’s line outscored Patrice Bergeron’s line, Bergeron’s line was better in the shot share battle, meaning Marleau’s line will be hard pressed to repeat their Game 3 success.
Let others chase Game 3’s results by going with Marleau and Mitch Marner, and instead go with Auston Matthews’ line. Matthews’ wingers are William Nylander and Zach Hyman, and those two were Toronto’s best possession players at even strength in Game 3. Matthews and Nylander stay together on the PP, and Jake Gardiner joins them both at even and on the PP. That line is worth considering for a stack, and their ownership shouldn’t be too high (for a two-game slate anyway).
As for the goalies in this one, the Bruins suppress shots to such a degree that Tuukka Rask has limited upside. With the B’s being on the road and not a big favorite, Tuukka might not be the best play tonight. Frederik Andersen has been shaky in this series, but he was solid in Game 3 stopping 40 of Boston’s 42 shots. He may not be able to play that well again, but the fact that he could see 40+ shots again gives him upside worth taking a gamble on.
WAS @ CBJ
The chalk options in this game aren’t lines but rather individuals. Alex Ovechkin should be popular for obvious reasons, and Artemi Panarin has been as hot as anyone with 49 points in his last 26 games dating back to the regular season. Those two plus some exposure to Boston’s top line are guys you’ll need to fit in as you can in cash games. With some value options like Boston’s third line or some other cheap options in this game, you should be able to afford three expensive, chalk studs. You don’t have to fade them all in GPPs, but don’t over-rely on the chalk.
The Columbus depth line to go with is the Nick Foligno line as they saw Washington’s bottom six in Game 3. Brandon Dubinsky’s line drew the much tougher matchup against Nicklas Backstrom’s line. Foligno himself didn’t see any PP work in Game 3, but his wingers did. Thomas Vanek plays on the top PP unit with the top line, which is obviously appealing, and Boone Jenner plays on the second PP unit.
As for cheaper options from the Caps, you can get some indirect exposure to their studs with someone like T.J. Oshie who is the cheapest forward on Washington’s top power play unit. Also in play is Tom Wilson who continues to skate with Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov at even strength.
As for the goalies in this one, Sergei Bobrovsky is the only trustworthy option. Braden Holtby will likely draw another start for Washington after winning Game 3 following Phillip Grubauer struggling in the first two games of the series. But Holtby was so shaky during the regular season that he’s extremely difficult to trust. Bobrovsky has been solid through three games in the series with a .925 SV%. This series has also gone to overtime in every single game, which has allowed Bobrovsky to rack up saves as he’s averaging 41 per game so far.