Below are game breakdowns and optimal lineups for Friday’s three-game NHL DFS slate. Tonight’s slate features the same matchups from Wednesday, so here’s Wednesday’s game breakdowns, which set the table for these matchups.
PHI @ PIT
Pittsburgh was the biggest favorite on Wednesday night, and after a 7-0 drubbing of the Flyers they’ll likely be the biggest favorite again and the most heavily owned team. We preferred the Malkin line to the Crosby line since Crosby’s line would draw a tougher matchup against Philly’s top line. We got two goals from the Malkin line, which isn’t bad at all, but Crosby’s line accounted for the other five goals. Should we stick with the Malkin pick or was something going on in Game 1 that should move us to Crosby’s line?
We were right about how the matchups would shake out, but we were apparently too worried about Philly’s top line. Crosby and his line mates did see Philly’s top line but were the three Pittsburgh forwards with the highest Corsi For percentage (CF%) at even strength (score and venue adjusted) despite playing against Philly’s best possession line. Malkin and Patric Hornqvist were also on the right side of the Corsi ledger, but they were not as dominant as Crosby’s line.
We’re still inclined to lean on Malkin’s line given that the data from one game doesn’t necessarily trump an entire season’s worth of data. But Crosby’s line will see heavy ownership after scoring five goals on Wednesday, so you kind of need some exposure to them in cash games. Crosby is more expensive than Malkin on both sites, so it might be better to get PIT1 exposure with guys that play with him. His wingers, Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust, are both priced well on FD, and Kris Letang, who plays with PIT1 at even, is priced well on DK.
It wouldn’t be a bad idea to have exposure to PIT1 and PIT2 in cash games. Hornqvist is priced well on FD, and Malkin is much more affordable on DK, so those would be the sites on which to use them. The line also has some GPP appeal if you get somewhat contrarian with the rest of your lineup. Carl Hagelin is the third member of that line, and Justin Schultz skates with them at even as well as with Malkin/Hornqvist on the top PP unit.
On Wednesday we were also interested in the Flyers as a GPP play, and that quite obviously didn’t work out. However, Matt Murray is still one of the two goalies in action tonight who was below average during the regular season, so Philly is still interesting.
While Philly’s top six got housed in the possession game by the Crosby and Malkin lines, Philly’s bottom six was better possession-wise than Pittsburgh’s bottom six. Third line wingers Wayne Simmonds and Travis Konecny were positive in CF% and stay together on the second PP unit, which gives them some stack appeal. Valtteri Filppula centers that line if you want to stack the whole line, but Filppula does not see PP work. Defenseman Travis Sanheim is an option to include in a Philly depth stack as he was Philly’s best CF% player on Wednesday, and his pair skates the most with Filppula’s line. He also plays on the second PP unit.
Murray and Brian Elliott are the only two of tonight’s six goalies who were below average in the regular season, so this isn’t the game for goalies. The only spot you could maybe use one of them is Murray in cash on FD where he is the cheapest of the three favored goalies.
MIN @ WPG
Winnipeg didn’t dominate Minnesota on the scoresheet like the Pens did against the Flyers, but they unquestionably dominated the Wild as evidenced by a 62-38 advantage in even strength CF% (score and venue adjusted). There wasn’t a single Jet who finished the game with a CF% mark below 53 percent. Devan Dubnyk was heroic to keep that game close as he stopped more than twice as many shots at even strength as Connor Hellebuyck did.
On Wednesday we preferred Paul Stastny’s line since they had been seeing opposing third lines the most in recent home games, and Minny’s third is their one weak possession line. That pattern held as Stastny, Patrik Laine and Nikolaj Ehlers were in fact the line that saw the most ice against MIN3. The trio delivered with the most combined points (3) and shots on goal (9) of any of Winnipeg’s line. For that reason, we see no reason not to go back to the well and lean primarily on that line for cash games. Laine is worth paying up for on either site if you can afford him, Ehlers is priced reasonably on both sites, and Stastny is only priced for use on FD.
If you want to vary your exposure to the Jets in cash, top liner Blake Wheeler is underpriced on both sites, especially on FD. The third line pair of Bryan Little and Mathieu Perreault (DTD, very questionable to play) is always cheap, so either or both are salary relief options. They also play together on the second PP unit, so they can be used as a cheap GPP mini-stack as well.
Dustin Byfuglien is the D-man on the top PP unit which consists of Stastny, Laine, Wheeler and Mark Scheifele. Byfuglien skates the most with Stastny’s line at even, so he’s very much another cash game option. Buff is the only D-man that saw any PP time for the Jets in Game 1, so he takes a bit of value away from his fellow blueliners. But Jacob Trouba is priced well enough on DK to be interesting without a second of PP work. He skates with the top line at even strength if you’re interested in stacking.
It’s hard to recommend anyone from a team that opened as a +180 road dog in the game after they got thoroughly housed in shot share. But, as was in the case in Game 1, Mikko Koivu’s line is priced so well, especially on DK, that they might be worth a look in GPPs. They did notch a goal in Game 1, and the fact that they stay together on the PP helps with their stack-ability. Defenseman Matt Dumba played a fair amount with Koivu’s line at even in Game 1 and joined them on the top PP unit.
Both goalies are in play in this one with Connor Hellebuyck being an obvious choice for cash games. Hellebuyck finished fourth out of 69 qualifying goalies in Goals Saved Above Average this season, and his team opened as a -200 favorite. He’s a better option on FD where he’s more affordable.
As mentioned, Dubnyk saw a ton of shots in Game 1, 40 to be exact, so he certainly has upside in GPPs. He managed 4.4 fantasy points on DK despite taking the loss, so you can get an idea of what his upside is if Minnesota is able to steal this game. Brian Elliott is the only probable goalie on either site that is cheaper than Dubnyk, so Dubs has plenty of value potential.
LA @ VGK
Wednesday’s writeup said this was the least fantasy-friendly game of the slate, and the 1-0 Vegas win bore that out. Both teams were above average defensively in the regular season and both have solid goaltenders, so this isn’t the best game from which to roster skaters. That said, the Golden Knights are a -160 home favorite, and they won the Corsi For battle 59.6 percent to 40.4 percent in Game 1, so they’re worth a look.
Aside from their fourth line, Vegas’ top line was their best possession line despite matching up with LA’s top line, which was LA’s best possession line in the regular season. No one on Vegas’ top line is priced all that well on DK, so they’re not much of an option there, though maybe Reilly Smith would be an option at $5,600. But over on FD wingers Jonathan Marchessault and Smith have more reasonable price tags. Stacking any players from this game probably isn’t a good idea, but you can afford to get some one-off exposure to that line on FD in cash. Alex Tuch is also an option on FD given his spot on the top PP unit with the top line and his sub-4K price there.
On DK, you might lean towards Vegas’ second line to get a bit of exposure. Both Erik Haula and James Neal are priced reasonably there, so you could use one of them depending on your roster’s positional needs. They largely avoided Anze Kopitar’s line on Wednesday, so they’ll match up with LA’s second and third lines, which were weaker possession lines in the regular season.
If you wanted to roster some Kings, it would probably be best to pick on Cody Eakin’s line, which was Vegas’ weakest possession unit in the regular season. However, LA's third line drew that matchup ain Game 1, and Tanner Pearson is moving from LA1 to LA2 tonight, so the third line is now devoid of guys who see PP work save for Adrian Kempe. Instead, you might lean toward Jeff Carter's line with all three guys on that line being priced well on DK where they could be a GPP option.
Marc-Andre Fleury is coming off a shutout in Game 1, and he’s the cheapest of the three favored goalies on DK, so he’s a cash alternative to Hellebuyck there if you need to save a bit of money. We made exactly that choice in our DK Cash lineup on Wednesday. Jonathan Quick is also an option on DK but in GPPs. We mentioned Kempe/Pearson is a mini-stack option on DK, and we like to stack GPP goalies with skaters from their team, so Quick is in play there. He’s also priced better on DK as he’s priced the same as Hellebuyck on FD and more expensive than Murray there.