ECSTATIC (World rank: #22) vs. Eternal Fire (World rank: #57) - 10:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: ECSTATIC (-155) | Eternal Fire (+130)
Map Handicap: ECSTATIC +1.5 (-215) | Eternal Fire -1.5 (+175)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series for the quarter-finals of the REPUBLEAGUE TIPOS Season 2 Playoffs.
- ECSTATIC - Rating at event: FASHR 1.28 | WolfY 1.22 | maNkz 1.10 | Daffu 1.08 | birdfromsky 1.05
- ECSTATIC - Rating past three months: FASHR 1.19 | WolfY 1.13 | maNkz 1.09 | Daffu 1.09 | birdfromsky 1.04
- Eternal Fire - Rating at event: XANTARES 1.26 | woxic 1.06 | imoRR 1.04 | Calyx 0.99 | xfl0ud 0.95
- Eternal Fire - Rating past three months: XANTARES 1.27 | woxic 1.10 | imoRR 1.04 | xfl0ud 1.04 | Calyx 0.97
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
ECSTATIC removes Mirage
Eternal Fire removes Ancient
ECSTATIC picks Vertigo
Eternal Fire picks Overpass
ECSTATIC removes Dust2
Eternal Fire removes Inferno
Nuke is left over
Prediction/Narrative: ECSTATIC wins 2-1.
ECSTATIC (formerly known as Lyngby Vikings) won their first playoff match-up against 00Nation, including a convincing win on their map pick, Vertigo. This roster has a 26-3 W/L record on Vertigo all time with a dominant 62.6% T side win rate, 80.0% 5v4 conversion rate and 34.1% 4v5 conversion rate. They have now won eight in a row on Vertigo, and they should be able to pick it here since Eternal Fire typically ban Ancient, which ECSTATIC could use as a punish pick if left open. Thus, ECSTATIC should have a huge edge coming into this series as heavy favorites on Vertigo. Eternal Fire have expanded their map pool and have a few decent maps at the moment, but Mirage has been one of their best maps with a 3-1 W/L record and 82.5% 5v4 conversion rate, and ECSTATIC will likely ban it. I could see Eternal Fire picking Overpass, which they beat Virtus.pro on in the last round of the playoffs, or possibly Nuke, which is a map that they have seemed to like playing despite their struggling results. Eternal Fire will probably look to avoid having Inferno as the decider considering ECSTATIC have an 18-6 W/L record on the map, but the map pool should significantly favor ECSTATIC either way with Vertigo seeming like a lock. There are plenty of talented aimers on Eternal Fire, but I still have ECSTATIC winning this series 2-1.
Vertigo seems to be a guarantee here. FASHR leads his team on Vertigo with a 1.29 Rating across 29 maps played, which should make him an excellent spend-up option here. The second highest rated player on ECSTATIC on Vertigo is Daffu with a 1.17 Rating during that time, so I certainly like targeting him at a cheaper price than WolfY, though WolfY has still been great with a 1.16 Rating using the AWP. Xfl0ud leads his team on Vertigo with a 1.40 Rating across three maps played, so I would look to target him if you want exposure to Eternal Fire. XANTARES would also be another fine option considering he has a 1.31 Rating on Vertigo during that time.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
FASHR ($8,800) | Daffu ($7,200) | WolfY ($8,000) | maNkz ($6,200) | xfl0ud ($6,400) | XANTARES ($8,200) | birdfromsky ($5,400)
Entropiq (World rank: #12) vs. Fiend (World rank: #18) - 2:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Entropiq (-235) | Fiend (+185)
Map Handicap: Entropiq -1.5 (+135) | Fiend +1.5 (-160)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-145)
- This is a best-of-three series for the quarter-finals of the REPUBLEAGUE TIPOS Season 2 Playoffs.
- Entropiq - Rating at event: El1an 1.33 | Forester 1.29 | Lack1 1.26 | Krad 1.23 | NickelBack 1.19
- Entropiq - Rating past three months: El1an 1.14 | Forester 1.07 | Krad 1.07 | NickelBack 1.04 | Lack1 0.99
- Fiend - Rating at event: dream3r 1.31 | h4rn 1.18 | REDSTAR 1.15 | v1c7oR 1.03 | bubble 0.94
- Fiend - Rating past three months: h4rn 1.14 | REDSTAR 1.11 | dream3r 1.09 | v1c7oR 1.07
H2H Data:
- These rosters last faced each other in June at a smaller event, European Development Championship 4. Entropiq swept 2-0 (Nuke 16-13 / Mirage 16-13) and Lack1 led the way with 57 kills and a 1.44 Rating.
Map Projections:
Entropiq removes Inferno
Fiend removes Vertigo
Entropiq picks Overpass
Fiend picks Dust2
Entropiq removes Nuke
Fiend removes Ancient
Mirage is left over
Prediction/Narrative: Entropiq wins 2-0.
Entropiq made quick work of Sinners in their first playoff match-up with a 2-0 sweep (Nuke 16-5 / Mirage 16-14). Meanwhile, Fiend took three maps to get past their Bulgarian counterpart, SKADE (16-11 Dust2 / 11-16 Inferno / 16-10 Mirage). Mirage is Fiend’s most played map, and they often pick it right off the bat, but they might need to reconsider here. Entropiq have their highest win rate on Mirage in the past three months with a 12-4 W/L record, 75.6% 5v4 conversion rate, and 35.2% 4v5 conversion rate. Entropiq have won three in a row on that map and have beaten strong competition such as Heroic & Movistar Riders, so perhaps Fiend would be better off going for Dust2. Fiend have won 16 of their last 18 on Dust2 with an 81.4% 5v4 conversion rate and 34.3% 4v5 conversion rate. Their T side has been the key to their success with a dominant 66.8% T side win rate during that time. Entropiq also have their lowest win rate on Dust2 out of any map in the pool (with the exception of their permaban, Inferno). Thus, Dust2 would probably be the best option for Fiend, but even then, I think that they will have trouble taking a map from Entropiq. Fiend have some talented aimers and can compete with anybody on their best days, but Entropiq are the clear better team on paper. Entropiq’s best map choice here would probably be Overpass, where they are on a four map win streak that includes a win over Vitality at the Major. The rest of the map pool should favor Entropiq, and I think that they will have this series locked up even if Fiend managed to take a map.
El1an should be a solid choice per usual given the fact that he leads his team on Dust2 with a 1.19 Rating across 13 maps played, and he is also at the top on Mirage with a 1.21 Rating across 16 maps played in case Fiend were to pick that map instead. NickelBack has been stepping up on Dust2 lately and is second on his team with a 1.09 Rating in the past three months, so I think he should be a great value play in this spot. Forester leads his team on Overpass with a 1.20 Rating across 18 maps played, so he should be in for a good day if Entropiq do decide to pick that map. I am not looking to have exposure to Fiend here, but dream3r catches my eye at $6,000 because that price tag seems too cheap given the form that he showed last round of the playoffs with 82 kills and a 1.45 Rating across three maps against SKADE.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
El1an ($9,400) | NickelBack ($6,600) | Forester ($8,400) | Krad ($7,800) | Lack1 ($5,600) | dream3r ($6,000)