MMA DFS Playbook: UFC on Fox 26 - Lawler vs. Dos Anjos

The UFC rolls into Winnipeg, Canada Saturday night with a great card on big Fox from top to bottom! There’s only 2 cards left in 2017, so make sure you take advantage and get your lineups in so you win that DK MMA cash!

This card is one where you should spread your risk in GPP’s, and have multiple combinations of lineups that spreads your risk throughout the card. I wouldn’t invest in just 2 or 3 lineups in GPP’s, as this will almost definitely end in you losing money. Hopefully one of your spread lineups will hit, and you’ll be PayPal’ing me a donation for all the help with your lineups. Without further ado, let’s get into the fights, and remember, this fight by fight preview should be a good barometer for you to create your lineups. I wouldn’t just plug and play my optimal lineups at the bottom of this article, but use the info with to create your own LU’s that you feel confident in, and that matches your playing style well.

Undercard

The first fight of 11 on the night pits 13-4 Nordine Taleb, who had 2 unsuccesful trips on The Ultimate Fighter, against 14-2 American striker, Danny Roberts. This is one of those mid-tier fights that is very appealing when constructing your GPP lineups. Talen has a slight edge from both a Vegas perspective and a DK perspective, Both of these guys were scheduled throwing down on the same card, but just with new opponents.

Taleb has that annoying style and pace that many of the Tri-Star fighters employ, and it isn’t the most visually appealing style for the fans, so don’t be surprised if you hear some boos as Taleb keeps his distance from the Brit, and will look to land leg kicks and strategically placed strikes to out point Roberts. Nordine has one of the best defensive striking rates on the card, and this should give you an idea to the style that he’ll look to employ here. Taleb is a solid striker with a pretty good ground game, but he is limited in the power department, and often doesn’t display the killer instinct to finish fights.

This is a tough one, as neither fighter jumps of the page when looking at their stats, and their old fight tapes. I think this could be a very defensive battle, and one that may not be very appealing to the fans as Taleb will try not to get into a slugfest with Roberts, and will deploy his superior Fight IQ instilled by the Tri-Star camp and head coach Farras Zahabi. I’m typically a big fan of a fighter with a solid Fight IQ, but the way that Tri-Star employs their strategies often makes for a boring, underwhelming, low-scoring DK fight. These are just a few reasons why I’ll be avoiding this one for the most part, but I may find a few lineups to sneak in Nordine.

 PICK: Taleb, Decision, Unanimous                                              

Cash Game: Taleb (7.5/10): I like his price tag here, and I think he has pretty good odds to win via decision.

GPP: Roberts (6.5/10): Roberts kid end this one quickly, and I don’t think he’ll be very highly owned. I like this play, but a tough fight to call to start the card.

The 2nd bout of the night is one that makes UFC fans from 2012 really excited! If the UFC had a boy band, then I would guarantee that Erick Silva and Jordan Mein would be the first 2 members of the group! These guys had hype at the pinnacle of their careers like few others had in the UFC. Unfortunately, neither one of them ever really lived up to the hype. They now find themselves floundering, trying to fight for their careers in 2017. Both Mein and Silva have been in wars at a very high level in their careers, and this could definitely be a factor in this fight. Chin’s are not the strong suit in this fight. When ‘capping fights I always take into account the weaknesses of each fighters opponent, and how strong these weaknesses are. A weak chin is always something we are considering when evaluating a matchup. I always like to bet against a chinny fighter, especially when his opponent can throw. This fight is tough, because both fighters have weak chins, and have been taxed over their professional MMA careers. I don’t love betting heavily on either of these guys, and this fight could ultimately be a big factor in your lineups, but it’s just a tough matchup to predict.

Both of these guys have questionable gas tanks, and will most likely limit the length of this fight to about as long as Rick Pitino in the back of an Italian restaurant (Tweet me if you get this), The longer the fight goes, I think the better chance that Mein has of pulling this one out. Like I said, it’s not a fight that I have much confidence in, but it could be a high scoring fight, so I’d consider it for my LU’s in GPP formats. I’d avoid in Cash.

I think ultimately, Jordan Mein will have the advantage here. Silva’s chin is now non-existent at 33 years old. He’s got some mileage I’ll be leaning Mein, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the one sleeping with his toes curled in the middle of the cage.

 PICK: Mein, KO, 1st                        

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Mein (7/10): I like his upside a little bit more than Silva’s, but still not a confident play.

Interesting fight here for the 3rd bout of the night. Exciting striker, Oluwale Bamgbose, is a slight dog to Alessio Di Chirico in this middleweight bout. Bamgbose really isn’t a UFC quality fighter, but he was a fighter that made sense to take a gamble on from the UFC’s perspective. He’s big, muscular, throws aggressive strikes with a high volume of combinations. If he lands on an unsuspecting foe, it’s over. Nighty, night! But at this level everyone knows their opponents weaknesses and strengths, and by now, middleweights know how to handle Bamgbose, and this is why he is 1-3 in the UFC.

Bam’s striking is visually very impressive, but his cardio is equally gross. Like an aggressive vomit session after eating 3 large bowls of thick chilli and then chasing it with a handle of plastic bottled vodka until you aggressively dispense the thick-ass chilli everywhere in front of you! Bamgbose will have impressive, high-impact striking combinations flying at his opponent for the first 3 - 4 minutes of the fight. If Bam doesn’t land something heavy within the first 3-4 minutes of the fight, then you can almost guarantee that his awful gas tank will play a big factor.

Di Chirico isn’t an overly impressive fighter, but he has a much better gas tank than Bamgbose, and he has a pretty solid defensive striking game, meaning that Bamgbose will find it very frustrating as the fight progresses. Di Cirico will ultimately land some big shots, and either finish Bamgbose via TKO, or he may lock up a choke as Bam looks for a way out of the fight and presents his back to the under-priced Di Chirico.

He’s the interesting part about this fight; Di Chirico is ranked 11th on the fight card with a -126 betting line, but ranks 18th on the card with a $7,600 DK salary! That’s a -7 Rank Value, which is crazy! We rarely see anything over -5! Yes, the -7 is impressive, but this also is a factor of there being so many closely matched, coin-flip fights on the card, so a bunch of guys all coin-flip fighters can vary greatly when ranking odds settle.

All things considered, I will have a good amount of Di Cirico in both formats, because I do think he is the better fighter, has good enough defense, and has a chance to end the fight before the final bell due to Bambgose’s shitty cardio and poor striking and ground defense. I’ll also have a few LU’s with Bamgbose littered in, because he will be lightly owned, and if he lands that punh, it will pay off nicely in our GPP’s.    

PICK: Di Chirico, Sub, 3rd             

Cash Game: Di Chirico (8.5/10): Great value here, and should win, but he’ll be highly owned when looking at his salary and overall value.

GPP: Di Chirico (8/10): Great value for his cheap salary, but he’ll be stupidly owned by many. Just know that.

John Makdessi is still hanging around after he had a couple tough loses, but the cage was still calling, and he finds himself in a tough matchup against Abel Trujillo. Turjillo has some heavy hands and could end the fight quickly and violently, especially with the questionable mindset that Makdessi

Makdessi will look to keep his distance and score points from the outside. He knows how to play with distances, and win on the judges scorecards. He doesn’t have the power you’d like to see in a striker in your GPP LU’s, but he does throw with volume, but I’m scared that if he stands in front of Trujillo too long that he’ll eventually crumble due to some heavy shots. Makdessi has had some serious injuries due to strikes that he’s taken, and this could play with him mentally. If he’s gunshy about taking a punch or two, then it could be a short night for Makdessi.

Here’s how I see this from a GPP perspective; I think Trujillo could score 100+ points, as he could very easily end this one quickly with heavy strikes that overwhelm Makdessi. If the Canadian can avoid Trujillo’s haymakers, land his kicks and jabs, and get come Canadian home cooking from the judges, and could easily win a unappealing decision on the judges scorecards. This is why this is a risky fight to play. Makdessi won’t score highly if he wins a decision, but his salary is only $7,300, and any victory that you get from these guys is a huge plus! I’ll have some Trujillo due to his ability to end the fight quickly, but he will be highly owned. Makdessi could be a nice source of salary savings, but his ceiling is low, but he’s a Live Dog, and we need to find a few of these guys to have a chance.

PICK: Trujillo, TKO, 1st

Cash Game: Trujillo (7/10): Low ceiling, and not convinced of a victory.

GPP: Trujillo (7/10): He’ll be popular, but can win quickly.

          Makdessi (7.5/10): He has a low ceiling, but he’s a LIVE DOG, and we need to take some chances on them!

This one I’ll only consider for GPP’s, and I’d completely avoid from a Cash perspective. Chad Laprise is 5-2 in the UFC, and is a solid all-around fighter, but he isn’t anything that you’d write home about. He isn’t very appealing from a DFS perspective, so the majority of my exposure will be on Bofando and his questionable track record. Laprise is the toughest competition that Bofando has faced, but I got a feeling about Bofando and what he brings to the table.

 Bofando is a loud, aggressive striker that can end a fight quickly, but he’s used to blitzing his opponents and overwhelming them with his power and aggression. Laprise is not a guy who can be overwhelmed easily. He’s a grizzly vet who’s fought under the bright lights against the best, so picking Bofando is a risk, but that’s why we’re here, right?

I am not incredibly confident about this pick, but I think it’s worth the risk. I like Bofando in my GPP lineups. He has a high ceiling, and not many people know about him, so he’ll be under owned in my opinion. Yes, it’s a risk, but it’s a calculated risk that could pay off. If Bofando wins he’ll rack up between 100 - 125 points. If Laprise wins he probably racks up 75 - 95 points. Again, not much confidence in this one, but I like the ownership level and high ceiling I’m getting in Bofando! Let’s roll the dice!

PICK: Bofando, KO, 1st

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Bofando (8/10): It’s a risk, but a high ceiling.

          Laprise (7/10): I’ll have a LU or two with Laprise in it, but I’ll be gambling mostly on Bofando.

Julian Marquez comes into this fight riding a serious wave of hype - most of it derived from his awesome head kick KO of a highly touted Phil Dawes on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contenders Series. He’s proven to be a very lethal striker who can end a fight whenever he wants to. He’s very technical in his striking skills, and he trains with a solid crew at Syndicate MMA in Las Vegas.

I’ll keep this one quick, as I think it’s a pretty simple play from a DFS perspective in my eyes. The only play here is Marquez. He has the best Inside the Distance Prop on the card at -113, and I think you can be pretty confident in knowing what type of victory you’ll get from Marquez. It will be quick and it will be violent. You can basically chalk up 90 -110 points in his victory over the +250 underdog Darren Stewart. If you have space to roster Marquez, then do it, as I think he’s one of the more predictable plays on the card, and he’ll do well in both your GPP and Cash LU’s. Leave some room, and roster Marquez in all formats!

PICK: Marquez, KO, 1st     

Cash Game: Marquez (9/10): I like his odds of victory, and high ceiling.

GPP: Marquez (8.5/10): I think he racks up some serious points, but he’ll be highly owned.

The 7th fight of the night pits 2 light heavyweights against each other in a battle that shouldn’t last more than a few rounds at most. Jan Blachowicz should already be out of the UFC, but he was able to put on a beautiful performance against American Devin Clark in front of his home country of Poland. Blachowicz doesn’t want to strike with Cannonier, as it will be a very short night for the Pole if he chooses to trade blows with Cannonier.

Cannonier throws heavy strikes with pretty much every limb available to him. He’s also no slouch on the ground, as he was able to survive a good amount of time on the ground with Grappling stud Glover Teixeira back in February of this year. Blachowicz is not as dangerous as Teixeira in the grappling department, not even close, so even if the Pole could get the American to the ground, which I don’t think he’ll be able to, as Cannonier is bigger, stronger, and has solid takedown defense, but his deadliest weapon is his heavy-handed striking that should prove to be too much for Blackowicz to handle over a 3 round battlet. So long as Cannonier can keep his cardio in check, then he should be able to control where this fight takes place, and how this fight ends.

He’ll probably highly owned in GPP’s due to the underwhelming overall MMA game of Jan Blachowicz. If Cannonier can avoid the takedown, and effectively deploy his striking game, then he should win by KO within the 1st two rounds and rack up about 100 points. I won’t have any exposure to Blachowicz, as he’s not UFC caliber, and I can’t foresee him overwhelming someone who is as big and experienced as Jared “The Killa Gorilla” Cannonier.

PICK: Cannonier, TKO, 1st

Cash Game: Cannonier (7.5/10): I like his odds of victory, but he could get caught in a choke or be clipped on the chin. These are pretty big boys, and I think someone will crumble.

GPP: Cannonier (8/10): I like his high ceiling, but he’ll be highly owned, and he’s not the cheapest fighter on the card, and these reduce his overall value. 

Main Card

The first fight of the main card has 30 year old Latvian-Canadian, Misha Cirkunov, who is 13-3 overall and 4-1 in the UFC, taking on 38 year old 13 fight UFC vet (9-4) in Glover Teixeira. Cirkunov was on a meteoric rise through the LHW division, and found himself as a big favorite against a relatively unknown fighter in Volkan Oezdemir back in May of this year. I still don’t know what happened in that fight, but the Cirkunov hype-train came to a grinding stop that night, as Volkan landed a very weak (or at least it looked weak) right hook behind the ear of Cirkunov, sending him careaning to the mat out cold! I rewatched that punch 30 times, and I still can’t figure out how he was KO’ed by such a light shot? It may have been in the exact perfect spot, thus changing the landscape of the Light Heavyweight for the foreseeable future. Oezdemire has gone on to become a legit striker who has become known for KO’ing anyone that is put in front of him, and doing it quietly and quickly in the 1st round. He now is ready to take on Daniel Cormier for the Light Heavyweight belt, which no one could have predicted 9 months ago!

Teixeira has been a stud in the 205 lb division for many years, and he’s done it through a mix of effective, heavy-handed striking, and a ground game that is backed up by his BJJ blackbelt. Teixeira trains at his own MMA gym in Danbury, CT. Some would question if he is getting the proper training, and if he has the proper training partners available to him through his gym in Connecticut. Well, I’m not one of those people. I used to question Teixeira’s training regiment and quality of camp, but after seeing him pull of numerous high profile wins against difficult competition with the same training camp, I’m convinced that the Brazilian has been in so many fights and is well-versed in every facet of the MMA game, that his camp quality really doesn’t play a big factor in determining how prepared he will be.

This is an interesting fight to handicap, as I could see this one going either way. Both fighters are well-versed on the ground, and may very well cancel each other out on the ground, and they both have solid stand-up games, but both have recently had questions about their chins and whether they can take big strikes or not. This is a nice fight to target in general, and I’ll probably have some exposure to both fighters. Teixeira could pull off an upset here, and if he stops Cirkunov, then he could be a big DK scorere with a moderate price tag. I could easily see CIrkunov connecting with Teixeira’s chin and ending this one in the 1st round. Have exposure to both in GPP’s if you are making more than 6 or 7 lineups. I’m probably going to be leaning on Cirkunov as he is the younger, more athletic fighter who is most likely at his prime, where Glover is on the downside of his career. Proceed with him with caution.

PICK: Cirkunov, Dec, Unanimous

Cash Game: Cirkunov (7/10): Not very confident in victory here, but he has a solid upside with a versatile game that could wear down his opponent in a style that is very conducive to the DK scoring system.

GPP: Cirkunov (8/10): I like his style, as he is well-rounded, and if he gets some takedowns, and strikes effectively while standing and on the ground, then Cirkunov may score a pretty impressive DK score.

          Teixeira (7.5/10): It’s worth a gamble here, especially after seeing how easy Cirkunov was KO’ed last time out.

Another great matchup from an entertainment perspective! Perry has burst onto the UFC scene with some seriously heavy hands, and a mouth to match! This one could very easily take Fight of the Night, so don’t go smoke a butt during this bout.

I like the Ponz here, as he is a very effective striker who is much more technical when compared to Perry. Ponz is 31 years old, and is 7-2 in the UFC. He’s a solid favorite over the hot-headed Perry, and garners an $8,700 price tag. Ponz is a smart fighter who knows how to implement an effective MMA gameplan. Perry on the other hand, is a brawler at heart and would love to push this fight into that category, as his odds of winning this one grows exponentially if he can force a brawling type of fight with the more technical Ponz, then he’ll have a legitimate shot at winning this fight.

I don’t necessarily think that Ponz will get caught up in the brawl that Perry wants though. If ponz uses his Fight IQ, doesn’t throw wild haymakers, and doesn’t get caught up in the brawl that Perry wants, then I could see him winning a decision that earns him 80-100 points, but I think his ceiling is somewhat limited due to the game plan that he should deploy against Perry. If Perry gets his way, then he may be the best value on the card as a $7,500 fighter who may be able to easily rack up 100+ points! I’ll have exposure to both in GPP’s, and I am considering Perry a Live Dog on this card, so feel free to use him as one when you need to save some salary. He is a gamble, but a smart gamble in my opinion.

PICK: Ponz, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Ponz (7/10): Could be a crazy one, and we don’t really know how it will end up. Proceed with caution.

GPP: Ponz (7/10): Yes, Ponz is heavy-handed and can win inside the distance, but if he’s smart, he won’t get caught up in this type of fight with the Floridian fighter with face tattoos.           

           Perry (8/10): Yes, I have Perry ranked higher than Ponz in GPP’s, as he has a cheap price tag when you compare it with his ability to end this one early, and score some serious DK points. He has a very nice upside when considering all the other factors.

We’ll keep this one quick, as the co-main event of the evening is a solid fight, but not one I love from a DK perspective. Lamas is the highest priced fighter at $9,300, but he’ll be hard-pressed to payoff that high salary, especially if he doesn’t end this fight within the 1st round. I don’t think Lamas will want to go to the ground here, and I think he’ll want to strike and grind this one out on the feet, and not give Emmet an opportunity to outpoint him.

I like Emmet in my Cash game LU’s, as I don’t think he’ll get finished, and may rack up 30-40 points in a decision loss to Lamas. We’ll take that as a nice punt play, as he could pull off a crazy win, and if he wins at $6,900, then we’ll be sitting pretty. Lamas also isn’t a bad Cash game play either, as he should be a safe play with a solid DK scoring opportunity. Both of these fighters have a lower ceiling than I’d want to see in my GPP LU’s, so we’ll be focusing mostly on our Cash LU’s. You can play Emmett and the put almost any other lineup behind him, and this typically does well in Cash LU’s. If you play Lamas then you’ll have to roster a few Live Dogs to fit him in. Use your best judgement, but not a lot of confidence here.

PICK: Lamas, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Lamas (8.5/10): I like his odds of winning, but his ceiling is somewhat low, and he will probably highly owned.

                      Emmett (7.5/10): Yes, he is a big underdog, but if he hits, or even racks up 35 points in a loss, then we should be sitting pretty with a bunch of other studs mixed into our Cash LU.

GPP: N/A or I may have a small exposure to Emmett in GPP’s.               

Snapshot:

Here we are onto the main event of the evening! This should be a great fight to watch, and should have some serious fireworks involved in this 5 round affair! Robbie Lawler will go down as one of the best Welterweights in UFC history, and has been involved in some of the most exciting fights in the divisions history! With that, he’s also absorbed a serious amount of damage over the years, and it’s got to start to catch up with him at some point. Is that fight the RDA fight on Saturday night? I don’t know - maybe. If this is the Robbie Lawler that beat Carlos Condit, then I think we’ll see an awesome fight where Lawler wins a decision and scores 120+ points, and this would be perfect for us, especially coming from a fighter who only costs us $8,100!

RDA is the former LW title holder, and he is 2-0 since he moved up to Welterweight. Lawler will have the size and power advantage, and his boxing is more technical too, but RDA is dangerous, and may be able to catch Lawler on the chin, and if he does, he could very easily put Lawler to sleep with the amount of damage that Lawler has absorbed over the years.

From a DFS perspective I really like Lawler here! He is much bigger and stronger than RDA, and he’ll be able to control where the fight takes place. He will be able to control the clinch, land elbows on the break, and will out strike RDA through his more technical, and varied boxing game. RDA has a shot, but I think it’s a small chance. What does concern me though is that Lawler takes rounds off, and if he takes a round off against RDA, then he could either get caught or he’ll lose those rounds, so it could be a close decision.

I will be heavy on Lawler in all formats, as his price tag is pretty cheap for the amount of upside that Lawler brings to the table, especially with a 5 round fight ahead of them! Give me Lawler, and let’s cross our fingers!

PICK: Lawler, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Lawler (8/10): I like the odds, price tag, and upside here!

GPP: Lawler (9/10): Love the upside combined with the salary and 5 round affair. Even if Lawler scores 90 points, it’s still a solid night for an $8,100, mid-tier fighter!                                    

          RDA (7/10): I’ll have a lineup or two with RDA in them just to cover my bases.

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

GPP 1

*PIVOT: You can also play Silva in this spot.