CS:GO DFS Playbook: ESL Pro League Season 13 3.12.2021 (3-Match)
Heroic (Ranked 13th in World) @ Complexity (Ranked 9th in World)
Betting Odds: Complexity -125/Heroic -105
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -125
*This is a best of three match for Group A in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.
*Heroic was taken the full three-map distance yesterday in their match against OG, but the maps they did won were pretty convincingly with a 16-6 result on OG’s map choice of Mirage, and the decider map of Overpass in a 16-6 result, as well. Heroic pushes their win streak to six matches in a row with the win, also. Complexity took care of business in a much closer match than expected against Renegades, but got the 2-0 sweep however.
*Heroic For Event (10 Maps): cadiaN 1.23 Rating, TeSeS 1.21, sjuush 1.11, stavn 1.09, refrezh 1.05.
*Heroic For the Last Month of Play (21 Maps): cadiaN 1.20 Rating, sjuush 1.13, stavn 1.10, TeSeS 1.10, refrezh 0.98.
*Complexity For Event (8 Maps): blameF 1.25 Rating, poizon 1.22, k0nfig 1.07, jks 1.00, RUSH 0.96.
*Complexity For the Last Month of Play (20 Maps): blameF 1.31 Rating, poizon 1.19, k0nfig 1.09, jks 0.99, RUSH 0.91.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have played three total matches dating back to May of 2020. Heroic have won the last two in a row played, with Complexity winning the latter match of the trio. Just one of the three matches went the full three-map distance. The last time these two played was at ESL One Cologne 2020 Europe and Heroic won with results of 16-13 on Nuke and 16-11 on Inferno.
*Complexity vs Heroic (7 Maps): blameF +35 K-D Diff, 1.34 K-D, 1.21 Rating. poizon +7 K-D Diff, 1.07 K-D, 1.06 Rating.
*Heroic vs Complexity (7 Maps): cadiaN +6 K-D Diff, 1.05 K-D, 1.02 Rating.
MAPS:
*The first likely two maps banned for this match should include Inferno for Complexity and Dust2 for Heroic. I believe we see Mirage for Complexity and Vertigo for Heroic.
*Heroic on Vertigo (7 Maps): sjuush (3 Maps) 1.24 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 0.99 IMP, 83.6 ADR. cadiaN 1.20, stavn 1.20, TeSeS 1.12, refrezh 1.01. On Mirage (6 Maps): sjuush (2 Maps) 1.25 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.31 IMP, 84.7 ADR. stavn 1.17 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.10 IMP, 84.5 ADR. TeSeS 0.92, cadiaN 0.91, refrezh 0.88.
*Complexity on Mirage (13 Maps): blameF 1.23 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.23 IMP, 79.7 ADR. k0nfig 1.19, poizon 1.15, jks 1.05, RUSH 0.97. On Vertigo (Have not Played Vertigo Over Last 3 Months in Major Events)
Analysis: I believe we see the first Heroic loss here. I think Complexity is playing at a very high level, not saying that Heroic isn’t, I just feel that the oddsmakers have the line right on this one even though I think it is a bit closer to even money. I think each team can win their own map pick, and I think we should likely see a decider of Nuke or Overpass (maybe even Inferno if CoL decides to ban Nuke or Vertigo even). Either way, I just feel that Complexity is going to be hard to beat, and I am more and more impressed with Heroic, but also think they haven’t faced a team yet in Group A play as good as Complexity can be when they are locked in.
BIG (Ranked 7th in World) @ Renegades (Ranked 48th in World)
Betting Odds: BIG -525/Renegades +345
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +135/Under -185
*This is a best of three match for Group A in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.
*BIG For Event (11 Maps): XANTARES 1.13 Rating, tabseN 1.09, syrsoN 1.03, k1to 1.01, tiziaN 0.92.
*BIG For the Last Month of Play (20 Maps): syrsoN 1.08 Rating, tabseN 1.08, XANTARES 1.08, k1to 1.02, tiziaN 0.90.
*Renegades For Event (8 Maps): INS 1.00 Rating, aliStair 0.81, malta 0.81, Hatz 0.76, Sico 0.75
*Renegades For the Last Month of Play (14 Maps): INS 1.04 Rating, Alistair 0.86, Sico 0.82, Hatz 0.82, malta 0.82.
H2H Data:
*These two teams played twice dating back to January of 2020 with a best of three and best of one series. No shocker as BIG won both matches while only allowing Renegades to record 5, 8, and 12 round wins in the three maps played. (Renegades had Dexter on the roster at this time, also)
*Renegades vs BIG (3 Maps): No positive players for the sample.
*BIG vs Renegades (3 Maps): k1to +27 K-D Diff, 83.5 ADR, 1.35 Rating. XANATARES +17 K-D Diff, 73.0 ADR, 1.24 Rating. tabseN +13 K-D Diff, 96.5 ADR, 1.35 Rating, syrsoN +12 K-D Diff, 68.8 ADR, 1.16 Rating. tiziaN +12 K-D Diff, 67.2 ADR, 1.20 Rating.
MAPS:
*The first likely two ban maps for this match should include Train for BIG and Overpass for Renegades. I believe the maps we do see for this match will include Inferno for Renegades and Dust2 for BIG.
*BIG on Dust2 (9 Maps): syrsoN 1.31 Rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.42 IMP, 89.8 ADR. k1to 1.10, tabseN 1.00, XANTARES 0.95, tiziaN 0.94. On Inferno (13 Maps): syrsoN 1.06 Rating, 0.67 KPR, 1.08 IMP, 68.3 ADR. XANTARES 1.04, tabseN 0.96, k1to 0.95, tiziaN 0.91.
*Renegades on Inferno (5 Maps): INS 0.99 Rating, 0.66 KPR, 1.07 IMP, 81.9 ADR. Sico 0.90, aliStair 0.88, malta 0.87, Hatz 0.83. On Dust2 (2 Maps): INS 1.14 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.61 IMP, 86.9 ADR. Hatz 0.64, aliStair 0.56, malta 0.54, Sico 0.46.
Analysis: BIG came out flat on Thursday against a decent FPX team and it turned out to bite them in the ass as they lost a close, but still a loss, three-map affair. Renegades have found absolutely ZERO footing in the Pro League yet, and I just don’t feel they likely will for this Group play. BIG should handle this match fairly easily with a nice bounce-back effort.
OG (Ranked 18th in World) @ FunPlus Phoenix (Ranked 19th in World)
Betting Odds: OG -135/FPX +105
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -125
*This is a best of three match for Group A in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.
*OG lost 2-1 to Heroic on Thursday, while FPX found themselves a nice win over BIG in a 2-1 fashion as mentioned above.
(*NOTE – niko is now back in for OG over NBK and it should be for at least the remainder of this Event, unless noted.)
*OG For Event (10 Maps): mantuu 1.14 Rating, valde 1.09, niko 1.07, ISSAA 1.04, Aleksib 0.98
*OG For Last Month of Play (28 Maps): mantuu 1.12 Rating, valde 1.10, niko 1.06, ISSAA 1.05, Aleksib 0.96.
*FPX For Event (9 Maps): Maden 1.04 Rating, STYKO 1.01, Farlig 0.97, suNny 0.95, zehN 0.92.
H2H Data:
*These two teams played a total of three times dating back to March of 2020 with OG winning two of the three best of three series, including the last two played. All three matches went a full three-map distance, as well.
*OG vs FPX (9 Maps): mantuu +48 K-D Diff, 1.38 K-D, 1.24 Rating. valde +16 K-D Diff, 1.11 K-D, 1.12 Rating.
*FPX vs OG (9 Maps): STYKO +23 K-D Diff, 1.15 K-D, 1.23 Rating. zehN +18 K-D Diff, 1.12 K-D, 1.13 Rating.
MAPS:
*The two likely first maps to be banned for this match include Mirage for FPX, and Vertigo for OG. Believe OG will once again go with Inferno and FPX likely goes with Nuke again.
*OG on Inferno (11 Maps): valde 1.17 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.09 IMP, 77.8 ADR. ISSAA 1.10, niko 1.09, mantuu 1.09, Aleksib 0.98. On Nuke (6 Maps): mantuu 1.27 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.39 IMP, 76.3 ADR. Aleksib 1.17, ISSAA 1.16, valde 1.14, niko 1.10.
*FPX on Nuke (3 Maps): Maden 1.15 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 0.97 IMP, 83.0 ADR. STYKO 1.10, Farlig 1.03, zehN 0.96, suNny 0.91. On Inferno (2 Maps): Maden 1.10 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.33 IMP, 82.9 ADR. suNny 1.03, STYKO 0.89, zehN 0.87, Farlig 0.71.
Analysis: I believe we could potentially see FPX come out flat here against OG as they are coming off a really nice win over a good BIG team. OG didn’t look their best against Heroic at all, and they were paying a farewell to NBK as his last match, so niko back in for this one makes me feel they will be ready to bounce-back and get back in the winning column after the loss. Looking at OG here.
*TOP STACKS: BIG, OG, Complexity
*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: FPX
*TOP CPT PLAYS: XANTARES, tabseN, mantuu, valde, blameF, poizon, Maden, cadiaN
*TOP VALUES: Aleksib, syrsoN, k0nfig, STYKO, ISSAA, niko, sjuush, TeSeS