CS:GO DFS Playbook – BLAST Premiere Global Final 2020 1.22.2021 (2-Match)

Evil Geniuses (Ranked 18th in World) @ Liquid (Ranked 8th in World)

Betting Odds: Liquid -160/Evil Geniuses +125

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -145

*This is a best of three match in the lower bracket semi-finals for the BLAST Premiere Event.

*Evil Geniuses For the Event: CeRq 1.04 Rating, Brehze 1.01, Ethan 0.99, Stanislaw 0.87, Tarik 0.87.

*Liquid For the Event: NAF 1.19 Rating, FalleN 1.04, Grim 1.01, EliGe 0.99, stewie2K 0.95.

*Evil Geniuses Over the Last Three Months of Play (18 Maps): Ethan 1.11 Rating, Tarik 1.06, Brehze 1.05, CeRq 1.03, Stanislaw 0.98.

*Liquid Over the Last Three Months of play (34 Maps): NAF 1.12 Rating, EliGe 1.11, Grim 1.07, FalleN 1.04, Stewie2k 0.96.

H2H Data:

*These two teams have an extensive history and have played 10 Event matches in 2020, including a Grand Final at the ESL One Cologne 2020 North America Event. EG has won the last six-straight matches. Four of those six matches were by the 2-0 sweep.

*EG vs Liquid (26 Maps): Brehze +70 K-D Diff, 1.15 K-D, 1.15 Rating. CeRq +25 K-D Diff, 1.06 K-D, 1.08 Rating. Ethan +17 K-D Diff, 1.04 K-D, 1.09 Rating.

*Liquid vs EG (26 Maps): EliGE +61 K-D Diff, 1.13 K-D, 1.16 Rating. FalleN (11 Maps): +38 K-D Diff, 1.19 K-D, 1.13 Rating. NAF +13 K-D Diff, 1.03 K-D, 1.06 Rating.

MAPS:

*The two ban maps for these two squads should include Mirage for EG and Train for Liquid. Over the last four matches played between these two Mirage has shown up all four times, with Inferno three times, and Nuke twice. I think we can likely feel comfortable that Inferno will be in play, and it seems that EG won’t allow Liquid to get Mirage, so we likely see Nuke for them.

*Liquid on Inferno (9 Maps): EliGe 1.14 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 78.2 ADR. NAF 1.05, Stewie2K 0.96, Grim 0.91. On Nuke (9 Maps): NAF 1.28 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.16 IMP, 88.8 ADR. EliGE 1.19, Grim 1.09, Stewie2K 0.94.

*EG on Nuke (4 Maps): Brehze 1.42 Rating, 0.95 KPR, 1.36 IMP, 96.5 ADR. Tarik 1.36, Ethan 1.29, Stanislaw 1.12, CeRq 0.94. On Inferno (5 Maps): Ethan 1.18 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.18 IMP, 78.2 ADR. CeRq 1.12, Tarik 1.11, Stanislaw 1.03, Brehze 0.94.

Analysis: EG has struggled a bit to start back from the break and this could easily be a nice spot for them against a familiar foe. It won’t likely be easy, but the H2H detail is clearly in their favor and Liquid is merely the same team but added FalleN, and we saw that Liquid against Vitality today, and against a top-tier team. I am going to look for a 3-map affair here, but I think EG pulls it out.

 

 

NaVi (Ranked 3rd in World) @ G2 (Ranked 9th in World)

Betting Odds: G2 -135/NaVi +105

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -115/Under -115

*This is a best of three lower bracket semi-final match for the BLAST Premiere Event.

*NaVi For the Event: s1mple 1.32 Rating, electronic 1.15, Boombl4 1.06, Perfecto 1.01, flamie 0.73.

*G2 For the Event: NiKo 1.22 Rating, nexa 1.04, KennyS 1.03, huNter 0.93, AmaNEk 0.93.

*NaVI Over the Last Three Months of Play (53 Maps): s1mple 1.29 Rating, electronic 1.13, Perfecto 1.00, flamie 0.97, Boombl4 0.93.

*G2 Over the Last Three Months of Play (50 Maps): NiKo 2.33 Rating, huNter 1.04, kennyS 1.03, nexa 0.98, AmaNEk 0.97.

H2H Data:

*These two teams have played 5 matches in recent memory back in 2020, with NaVi winning four of the five matches played. Three of the five matches went a full three-map distance, as well. NaVi has won the last two meetings, one by sweep and one in a 2-1 result.

*NaVI vs G2 (13 Maps): s1mple +83 K-D Diff, 1.42 K-D, 1.30 Rating. Electronic +46 K-D Diff, 1.22 K-D, 1.18 Rating. Perfecto +22 K-D Diff, 1.11 K-D, 1.12 Rating. Boombl4 0 K-D Diff, 1.00 K-D, 1.09 Rating.  

*G2 vs NaVi (13 Maps): NiKo +31 K-D Diff, 1.10 K-D, 1.19 Rating.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Overpass for G2 and Vertigo for NaVi. The last four times these two teams squared-off, Train showed up three times, Mirage, Dust2, Nuke, have shown up twice with Inferno once. NaVi has went with Train three of the four times, while Mirage has been a popular one for G2.

*NaVi on Train (6 Maps): s1mple 1.34 Rating, 0.90 KPR, 1.41 IMP, 90.2 ADR. Electronic 1.04, Perfecto 0.96, Boombl4 0.95, flamie 0.91. On Mirage (8 Maps): s1mple 1.18 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.19 IMP, 77.6 ADR. Electronic 1.16, Perfecto 0.99, flamie 0.97, Boombl4 0.95.

*G2 on Mirage (8 Maps): NiKo 1.20 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.36 IMP, 87.5 ADR. kennyS 1.12, huNter 1.10, nexa 1.05, AmaNEk 0.92. On Train (3 Maps): NiKo 1.27 Rating, 0.86 KPR, 1.48 IMP, 93.9 ADR. huNter 0.99, kennyS 0.92, nexa 0.90 (AmaNEk has only played one map on Train and his numbers are majorly skewed)

Analysis: This feels like the perfect get-right spot here for NaVi to continue on out of the lower-bracket. NaVi have the head-to-head history here against G2 and only NiKo has a positive stat-line for that H2H span. I like NaVi to take care of business here behind a big match from s1mple.

*TOP STACKS: NaVi, EG

*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: G2

*TOP CPT PLAYS: s1mple, NiKo, electronic, Brehze, Ethan, EliGe, CeRq

*TOP FLEX PLAYS: Tarik, kennyS, Perfecto, Grim