Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO November 19
Sean Mitchell brings you all of the important stats and data for Thursday's four-match CS:GO DFS slate in FlashPoint 2 and IEM Events!
CS:GO DFS Playbook IEM/FlashPoint 4-Match (11.19.2020)
Fnatic (Ranked 12th in World) @ Dignitas (Ranked 77th in World):
Betting Odds: fnatic +-525/Dignitas +345
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +140/Under -190
*This is the Group A consolidation final for FlashPoint 2, winner advances to playoffs and loser goes to Last Chance Stage.
*fnatic were losers in their most recent match played against MAD in a 1-2 result and have lost four of their last five matches played to boot. Dignitas were victors in their most recent match against c0ntact in a 2-1 result, but like fnatic had lost four straight prior to the win.
*For the Event for fnatic: KRIMZ 1.21 Rating, Brollan 1.15 Rating, JW 0.98 Rating, Golden 0.98 Rating, flusha 0.94 Rating.
*For the Event for Dignitas: hallzerk 1.12 Rating, f0rest 1.02 Rating, HEAP 0.86 Rating, friberg 0.81 Rating, H4RR3 0.80 Rating.
*For the Last Month of Play for fnatic (21 Maps): Brollan 1.08 Rating, KRIMZ 1.02 Rating, JW 0.95 Rating, flusha 0.94 Rating, Golden 0.93 Rating.
*For the Last Month of Play for Dignitas (8 Maps): hallzerk 1.12 Rating, f0rest 0.92 Rating, HEAP 0.89 Rating, H4RR3 0.88 Rating, friberg 0.74 Rating.
*These two teams have played three matches recently in 2020, with fnatic winning four of the maps compared to Dignita’s three map wins. Fnatic won two of the three matches, however both best of three series went three maps each.
*Top Players for fnatic vs Dignitas (7 Maps): flusha +33 K-D Diff, 1.23 K-D, 1.20 Rating. JW + 25 K-D Diff, 1.16 K-D, 1.20 Rating. Brollan +24 K-D Diff, 1.16 K-D, 1.11 Rating. KRIMZ +6 K-D Diff, 1.04 K-D, 1.05 Rating.
*Top Players for Dignitas vs fnatic (7 Maps): hallzerk +4 K-D Diff, 1.03 K-D, 1.07 Rating. F0rest +3 K-D Diff, 1.02 K-D, 1.03 Rating.
*The first two ban maps for this match will include Mirage for DIG, and Vertigo for fnatic. The first picks lately have been Nuke for DIG and Inferno for fnatic, and I believe we have no reason to think we don’t see these two.
*fnatic on Inferno (20 Maps): KRIMZ 1.11 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.05 IMP, 74.7 ADR. Brollan 1.10 Rating, flusha 1.03 Rating, Golden 1.03 Rating, JW 1.01 Rating. On Nuke (7 Maps): Brollan 1.01 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.08 IMP, 74.0 ADR. KRIMZ 0.97 Rating, flusha 0.96 Rating, JW 0.91 Rating, Golden 0.88 Rating.
*Dignitas on Nuke (10 Maps): hallzerk 1.25 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.28 IMP, 81.3 ADR. F0rest 1.16 Rating, friberg 0.97 Rating, HEAP 0.85 Rating, H4RR3 0.83 Rating. On Inferno (7 Maps): f0rest 0.99 Rating, 0.65 KPR, 1.03 IMP, 71.9 ADR. Heap 0.99 Rating, hallzerk 0.97 Rating, H4RR3 0.95 Rating, friberg 0.87 Rating.
FaZe (Ranked 10th in World) vs G2 (Ranked 11th):
Betting Odds: G2 -170/FaZe +130
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -125/Under -106
*This is the quarter final match for the Europe region of the IEM Beijing-Haidian 2020 Event.
*Both teams come into this match in good form, but it is G2 (need I remind this is the first time NiKo will face his old team since joining G2) who come in a bit better form winning four of their last five previous matches with their only loss coming in a 1-2 result to NiP. FaZe have won two straight after losing two matches to both Complexity and BIG prior to the mini-win streak.
*For the Event for FaZe: broky 1.35 Rating, Kjaerbye 1.08 Rating, coldzera 1.07 Rating, rain 1.01 Rating, olofmeister 0.88 Rating.
*For the Event for G2: NiKo 1.25 Rating, Kennys 1.09 Rating, huNter- 1.05 Rating, nexa 1.03 Rating, JaCkz 0.93 Rating.
*For the Last Month of Play for FaZe (17 Maps): broky 1.12 Rating, coldzera 1.07 Rating, rain 1.05 Rating, Kjaerbye 1.01 Rating, olofmeister 0.85 Rating.
*For the Last Month of Play for G2 (26 Maps): NiKo 1.26 Rating, huNter- 1.14 Rating, nexa 1.02 Rating, kennyS 1.00 Rating, JaCkz 0.89 Rating.
*These two have played four matches in 2020 (None with NiKo on G2 as mentioned above). FaZe holds three wins out of the four matches played, as well.
*Top Players for FaZe vs G2 (13 Maps): broky +47 K-D Diff, 1.23 K-D, 1.17 Rating. Coldzera +39 K-D Diff, 1.18 K-D, 1.15 rating. Kjaerbye +5 K-D Diff, 1.11 K-D, 1.09 Rating.
*Top Players for G2 vs FaZe (13 Maps): nexa +21 K-D Diff, 1.09 K-D, 1.10 Rating. huNter- +15 K-D Diff, 1.06 K-D, 1.11 Rating.
*The first two ban maps for this match will include Overpass and Vertigo. The two typical map choices for this match lately are Mirage for FaZe and G2 has been going with Vertigo, which will be banned. Their secondary map will likely be Dust2.
*FaZe on Mirage (14 Maps): broky 1.15 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.10 IMP, 75.2 ADR. Kjaerbye 1.06 Rating, rain 1.01 Rating, coldzera 0.97 Rating, olof 0.85 Rating. On Dust2 (12 Maps): broky 1.09 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 0.96 IMP, 76.6 ADR. Rain 1.07 Rating, coldzera 0.99 Rating, Kjaerbye 0.88 Rating, olof 0.80 Rating.
*G2 on Dust2 (15 Maps): NiKo 1.40 Rating, 0.92 KPR, 1.58 IMP, 98.2 ADR. huNter 1.07 Rating, nexa 1.02 Rating, kennyS 1.00 Rating, JaCkz 0.90 Rating. On Mirage (12 Maps): NiKo 1.10 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.13 IMP, 80.2 ADR. huNter 1.09 Rating, kennyS 1.01 Rating, JaCkz 0.97 Rating, nexa 0.91 Rating.
forZe (Ranked 25th in World) @ MIBR (Ranked 33rd in World):
Betting Odds: forZe -115/MIBR -110
Maps Odds: 2.5 Over -125/Under -110
*This is the Group B consolidation final for the FlashPoint 2 Event with winner advancing to the playoffs and loser going to the last chance stage.
*Both of these teams have lost two of their last three prior matches. MIBR was a winner in their most recent match however, as they beat Envy in a 2-1 result in this Event. forZe beat Envy 2-1 also as their last match win two matches ago but were losers in a reverse sweep 0-2 result to BIG in their most recent.
*For the Event for forZe: xsepower 1.24 Rating, Jerry 1.06 Rating, facecrack 1.03 Rating, almazer 0.94 Rating, FL1T 0.87 Rating.
*For the Event for MIBR: vsm 1.16 Rating, -kNgV 1.11 Rating, LUCAS1 0.96 Rating, trk 0.90 Rating, leo_drk 0.78 Rating.
*For the Last Month of Play for forZe (28 Maps): xsepower 1.10 Rating, FL1T 1.05 Rating, facecrack 0.97 Rating, almazer 0.97 Rating, Jerry 0.97 Rating.
*For the Last Month of Play for MIBR (24 Maps): kNgV- 1.12 Rating, trk 1.04 Rating, vsm 1.03 Rating, LUCAS1 0.91 Rating, leo_drk 0.89 Rating.
*There have been no recent head-to-head matches between these two recently.
*The first two ban maps for this match will include Vertigo for forZe and Nuke for MIBR. The first two map choices lately have been Inferno for forZe and Train for MIBR.
*forZe on Inferno (29 Maps): xsepower 1.26 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.33 IMP, 74.1 ADR. FL1T 1.23 Rating, facecrack 1.11 Rating, almazer 1.09 Rating, Jerry 1.05 Rating. On Train (16 Maps): FL1T 1.18 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.27 IMP, 86.6 ADR. Xsepower 1.13 Rating, almazer 1.01 Rating, facecrack 0.98 Rating, Jerry 0.97 Rating.
*MIBR on Train (7 Maps): vsm 1.10 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.18 IMP, 81.8 ADR. Leo_drk 1.09 Rating, kNgV- 1.00 Rating, trk 0.90 Rating, LUCAS1 0.88 Rating. On Inferno (5 Maps): LUCAS1 1.10 Rating, 0.64 KPR, 1.02 IMP, 75.6 ADR. Vsm 1.10 Rating, kNgV- 1.07 Rating, leo_drk 0.90 Rating, trk 0.84 Rating.
Astralis (Ranked 3rd in World) @ NaVi (Ranked 5th in World):
Betting Odds: Astralis -195/NaVi +145
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -125/Under -110
*This is the quarter-final match for the Europe region of the IEM Beijing-Haidian 2020 Event.
*Astralis comes into this one winners of their last two matches played, including four of their last five as well. NaVi has swapped wins and losses over their last five played, including three wins and two losses.
*For the Event for Astralis: device 1.45 Rating, dupreeh 1.37 Rating, Xyp9x 1.21 Rating, gla1ve 1.21 Rating, Magisk 1.01 Rating.
*For the Event for NaVi: s1mple 1.19 Rating, electronic 1.14 Rating, flamie 1.11 Rating, Perfecto 1.02 Rating, Boombl4 0.95 Rating.
*For the Last Month of Play for Astralis (24 Maps): device 1.20 Rating, Dupreeh 1.10 Rating, Magisk 1.07 Rating, gla1ve 1.04 Rating, Xyp9x 1.03 Rating.
* For the Last Month of Play for NaVi (26 Maps): s1mple 1.23 Rating, electronic 1.08 Rating, flamie 1.02 Rating, Perfecto 1.00 Rating, Boombl4 0.97 Rating.
*These two are very familiar with each other and have played four matches in their recent memory for 2020, including a Grand Final in their most recent matched played in the ESL Pro League Season 12 Europe. Astralis won that Grand Final but lost the three prior matches against NaVi. Two of the three best of three matches did go three maps, as well.
*Top Players for Astralis vs NaVi (12 Maps): device +16 K-D Diff, 1.08 K-D, 1.07 Rating.
*Top Players for NaVi vs Astralis (12 Maps): s1mple +80 K-D Diff, 1.41 K-D, 1.33 Rating (WHAT), electronic +37 K-D Diff, 1.18 K-D, 1.22 Rating. Flamie +8 K-D Diff, 1.04 K-D, 1.02 Rating.
*The first two ban maps for this match will include Mirage for Astralis and Vertigo for NaVi. The typical first map choices for these two lately have been Nuke for Astralis and Dust2 for NaVi. I believe we likely see these two maps for this match.
*Astralis on Nuke (20 Maps): device 1.21 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 77.1 ADR. Gla1ve 1.12 Rating, dupreeh 1.09 Rating, Magisk 1.06 Rating, Xyp9x 0.81 (4 Maps). On Dust2 (14 Maps): dupreeh 1.16 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.23 IMP, 80.9 ADR. Device 1.12 Rating, Xyp9x 1.10 Rating, Magisk 1.02 Rating, gla1ve 0.95 Rating.
*NaVi on Dust2 (12 Maps): s1mple 1.35 Rating, 0.86 KPR, 1.49 IMP, 91.5 ADR. Flamie 1.04 Rating, Perfecto 1.04 Rating, electronic 1.02 Rating, Boombl4 0.97 Rating. On Nuke (17 Maps): s1mple 1.23 Rating, 0.85 Rating, 1.30 IMP, 84.5 ADR. Electronic 1.09 Rating, flamie 1.01 Rating, Perfecto 0.97 Rating, Boombl4 0.96 Rating.
*Top Stacks: fnatic, NaVi, G2, Astralis
*Top Plays: s1mple, device, NiKo, KRIMZ, dupreeh, broky, Brollan, -kNgV, xespower
*Top Contrarian Stacks: FaZe, forZe