Esports DFS Playbook: CSGO: September 18
Sean Alexander breaks down Friday's CSGO slate.
Welcome back to another CS:GO DFS ESL Pro League Season 12 Friday four-match slate! We have some good matches on tap, so let’s jump right in!
Spirit (Ranked 19th in World) vs Mousesports (Ranked 21st in World)
The first best of three on tap for this Friday slate is one out of Group B play between Spirit and Mouse. Looking at the current betting odds for this match, both teams are listed as favorites in terms of money line, as Mouse sit as a slight favorite at -115, while Spirit also sits at -110 to win this match. Spirit comes into this one in pretty nice form as they have won three of their prior four matches, while Mouse got back on the winning track in their last match against Complexity in a shocker where they swept them as well, however, before that win they had dropped two matches. These two teams have not faced each other in recent memory, so we will analyze the best individual stats for each team over the last month of online play. For Spirit (32 map sample) it is mir still leading the charge as he sits with a 1.25 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 0.64 DPR, 1.28 IMP< and 85.7 ADR. All four other team options sit above a 1.0 Rating beginning with iDISBALANCE next at 1.16, sdy at 1.10, magixx at 1.07, and finally, chopper at 1.02. For Mouse (18 map sample) they have literally ridden on the coattails of ropz, as he has not only been their best player, but has been the only option to eclipse a 1.0 Rating for this sample as he sits with a 1.18 Rating , 0.81 KPR, 0.71 DPR, 1.28 IMP, and 85.4 ADR. Let’s look at the projected maps for any further detail into this match.
The first two ban maps for this match include Overpass for Mouse and Vertigo for Spirit. The two typical first maps chosen lately for these two teams include Train for Mouse and Dust2 for Spirit. I do feel that these two map selections will likely be the ones chosen, but the edge is a smidge in Spirit’s favor here with Dust2 as they sit with near a 70% success rate there over their last 18 attempts, while Mouse has not been that great on Train lately only winning just 33% of their last three. Now, this is not to say that we don’t see Mouse go with Nuke, as it has been a secondary map for them lately and one they have played quite a bit more at 7 tries, but Spirit is also edging them out there in success rate lately at 70% to 55% for Mouse. Not to mention, Spirit has won roughly 80% of their last five matches on Train, so the map favor is pretty much locked in favor of Spirit. Let’s see who has performed well on both Dust2 and Nuke, as I could see Mouse going Nuke as a more quantity played map selection lately. For Spirit on their projected map pick of Dust2 (nine map sample) iDISBALANCE has been the lead here for this sample with a 1.28 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 0.58 DPR, 1.39 IMP, and 81.6 ADR. Next, its sdy at 1.17, mir at 1.16, chopper at 1.14, and lastly, magixx at 1.06. For Nuke (five map sample) iDISBALANCE also tips the scales here lately with a 1.33 Rating, 0.88 KPR, 0.54 DPR, 1.29 IMP, and 83.4 ADR. After him it is magixx at 1.32, sdy at 1.17, chopper at 1.14, and mir at 1.10. For Mouse on their projected map choice of Nuke (six map sample) it is ropz only once again here as he sits with a 1.24 Rating, 0.86 KPR, 0.69 DPR, 1.30 IMP, and 89.5 ADR. For Dust2 (three map sample) no shock but ropz in the lead once again at 1.28 Rating, 0.89 KPR, 0.69 DPR, 1.36 IMP, and 91.6 ADR. He does have a follower here in Bymas at 1.21 however, but that ends the list. I do have to side with Spirit in this one, just feel they are the better overall team and the maps favor them quite nicely. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: iDISBALANCE – (His AWP play has been massive lately and although mir has been likely their carry, he has played very well and rates out as tops on both projected maps)
Top Stacking Options: iDISBALANCE, mir, sdy
ANCHOR: ropz – (Easily their best player and the individual stats show this)
Top Stacking Options: ropz, Bymas, frozen/chrisj
FaZe (Ranked 14th in World) vs NiP (Ranked 10th in World)
Our second best of three match is one out of Group B as well between FaZe and NiP. Looking at the current betting odds, FaZe come into this one as a decent favorite of -180 on the money line to win this match. It is worth noting that NiP will be without nawwk for this one, and their coach THREAT will play in his place. Nawwk was placed on medical leave just days ago and his return is not known yet. To say that both of these team’s recent form has been pretty putrid would be an understatement as FaZe haven’t won a match since I don’t know when, and NiP have only won one in their last five as well. However, these two teams are pretty familiar with each other and have played three matches so far in 2020. FaZe has won all three matches, while two of those went the full three-map distance. Let’s take a look at who the best performers were in the three matches. For FaZe (eight map sample) it has easily been NiKo as he sits with a +51 K-D Diff, 1.34 K-D, and 1.30 Rating. Broky is the next best at +24 K-D Diff, 1.18 K-D, and 1.09 Rating. For NiP, hampus is the closest to the best stat-line but has only played three maps against them, but his -6 K-D Diff is the best, Plopski is a -7, but the rest are pretty bad off against FaZe in this span. Let’s project some maps.
The first two ban maps for these two teams include Vertigo for FaZe and Dust2 for NiP. FaZe have been choosing Mirage quite often lately as their first pick, and NiP have been going with Overpass. NiP have had quite the success on Mirage lately however, as they are on a four-map win streak there and have won 75% of their last eight tries there. The only other map I could be rotated in this match is Nuke. I do think we see Mirage and Overpass however. Let’s see the top performers for these two lately. For FaZe on their projected map choice of Mirage (4 map sample) broky has been the best bet here lately, and the only bet over a 1.0 Rating as he sits with a 1.24 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 0.56 DPR, 1.36 IMP, and 72.9 ADR. For Overpass (three map sample) it is NiKo at the top spot here with a 1.16 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 0.64 DPR, 1.17 IMP, and 83.6 ADR. Next, its broky alone at 1.05 to round out the list. For NiP on their projected map choice of Overpass (five map sample) REZ is the lead guy here with a 1.09 Rating, 0.62 KPR, 0.67 DPR, 1.14 IMP, and 80.1 ADR. Two others follow here with Plopski at 1.04 and hampus at 1.02. For Mirage (eight map sample) Plopski is the top player here with a 1.19 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 0.60 DPR, 1.16 IMP, and 79.6 ADR. Two follow here as well with REZ at 1.16, and hampus right behind at 1.15. I think this match could easily go three maps, and I think the bookmakers are taking a hard stance on FaZe finally bouncing back for a win. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: broky – (NiKo is the popular CPT pick, but I like broky as a one-off or even a value CPT)
Top Stacking Options: broky, NiKo, rain
ANCHOR: Plopski – (still likely their best player, and rates well on both maps)
Top Stacking Options: Plopski, REZ, hampus (THREAT value)
Liquid (Ranked 9th in World) vs Cloud9 (Ranked 23rd in World)
Our third best of three match for this Friday includes one from the Group Stage in North America region between Liquid and Cloud9. Looking at the betting odds for this match, and the books really aren’t giving C9 much of a chance in this one as Liquid sits as the biggest favorite at -420 on the money line to win. Both teams are fresh off losses in their most recent matches, as C9 was downed by Triumph in a 1-2 result, and FURIA got their revenge on Liquid in a 0-2 sweep. These two teams have played against each other four times so far in 2020, so we have some nice data to go off of. Liquid has been in the driver’s seat for most of this series as they lead with 11 map wins to C9’s four. Let’s see who the top performers have been for these head-to-heads. All of Liquid has positive stat-lines against C9 for this sample, however it is Grim and NAF who lead the way. Grim has played them 11 times for 2020 and sits with a +37 K-D Diff, 1.18 K-D, and 1.19 Rating, while NAF sits at a +33 K-D Diff, 1.20 K-D, and 1.19 Rating. For Cloud9, oSee is the lead with a +26 K-D diff, 1.14 K-D, and 1.12 Rating. He was the only one to have a positive stat-line for this sample as well. Let’s project some maps for this one.
The first two ban maps for this match include Mirage for Cloud9 and Train for Liquid. The two typical first maps chosen lately include Nuke for Liquid and Overpass for Cloud9. In their recent matches, Nuke and Overpass were in three of the four matches, so I think we could easily see these maps once again here. Let’s see who has played the best on these lately. For Cloud9 on their projected map choice of Overpass (six map sample) oSee has been a beast here with a 1.39 Rating, 0.90 KPR, 0.54 DPR, 1.42 IMP, and 88.8 ADR. All his teammates follow him here with Sonic next at 1.18, floppy at 1.12, motm at 1.08, and lastly, JT at 1.03. For Nuke (2 map sample) not a single option sits above a 0.94 (floppy). For Liquid on their projected map choice of Nuke (six map sample) NAF has been the top player here with a 1.18 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 0.69 DPR, 1.29 IMP, and 87.9 ADR. He is followed by Twistzz at 1.01, and EliGe at 1.00. For Overpass (three map sample) EliGe is the top guy here with a 1.21 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 0.65 DPR, 1.32 IMP, and 84.0 ADR. All others follow him here as will with stewie2K next at 1.17, Twistzz at 1.13, NAF at 1.07, and lastly, Grim at 1.06. I know Liquid will be chalk for this slate and likely for good reason. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: oSee – (Stone cold lock as their best player by far lately)
Top Stacking Options: oSee, floppy, motm/Sonic
ANCHOR: NAF – (Going with a contrarian CPT in NAF as I think he rates out well on the projected maps and likely will be quite lower-owned compared to others)
Top Stacking Options: NAF, EliGe, Twistzz
Fnatic (Ranked 13th in World) vs Astralis (Ranked 11th in World)
Just look at what we get here for the final match of the day out of Group B play with fnatic taking on Astralis. The current betting odds are listing Astralis as a -250 favorite on the money line to win this match. Astralis has looked really good lately as they have won four of their last five matches played, while fnatic is searching for a win after getting ousted in two of their last three, and three of their last five matches. These two teams have quite the extensive history against each other, and Astralis leads this head-to-head series with 34 map wins to just 13 for fnatic. However, these two teams have only played once since Astralis started shuffling their lineup with both Bubzkji and es3tag. So, let’s take a look at top performers for the past month instead of head-to-head data. For fnatic (20 map sample) KRIMZ is the lead guy over the last month sitting with a 1.11 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 0.67 DPR, 1.04 IMP, and 80.5 ADR. Just one other options sits above a 1.0 Rating and that is Brollan at 1.05 for this sample. For Astralis (18 map sample) es3tag actually leads the team but only played 16 maps after being alternated with Bubz, but he sits at a 1.21 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 0.56 DPR, 1.20 IMP, and 78.8 ADR. Next, its device at 1.21, dupreeh and magisk at 1.14, and lastly, gla1ve at 1.10. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
The first two ban maps for this match include Vertigo for fnatic and Mirage for Astralis. The typical first maps chosen for these two lately include inferno for fnatic and Nuke for Astralis. Both teams have played very well on their first map choices lately, as fnatic have won over 70% of their last 11 attempts on Inferno, while Astralis have a 5-map winning streak lately on Nuke while also winning all five of their attempts there for a 100% success rate as well. I believe we should see these two map selections so let’s take a look at some top performers. For fnatic on their projected map choice of Inferno (five map sample) it is KRIMZ in the lead with a 1.29 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 0.64 DPR, 1.27 IMP, and 86.1 ADR. Next, it is flusha and Brollan both at 1.11, Golden at 1.05, and lastly, JW at 1.04. For Nuke (four map sample) Brollan is the top player for this sample here with a 1.12 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 0.71 DPR, 1.22 IMP, and 82.4 ADR. Next, its Golden at 1.05, KRIMZ at 1.04, and lastly, JW at 1.02. For Astralis on their projected map choice of Nuke (five map sample) it is dupreeh in the lead here with a 1.30 Rating, 0.83 DPR, 0.60 KPR, 1.24 IMP, and 86.5 ADR. Gla1ve and device are next at 1.21, with Magisk at 1.08. Es3tag actually leads the map at 1.31 and has played in all five maps as well. For Inferno (two map sample) es3tag leads here for the small sample also with a 1.19 rating, 0.74 KPR, 0.56 DPR, 1.27 IMP, and 81.1 ADR. Device is next at 1.11, gla1ve and magisk at 1.10 rounds out the list. I think Astralis is on a nice streak, and I think they likely win this match either 2-0 or 2-1. If fnatic can steal Inferno away from them, that’s the only chance they will have at winning this match. Astralis has looked very strong lately however, and I like them in this one. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: KRIMZ – (Best player lately hands down)
Top Stacking Options: KRIMZ, Brollan, Golden
ANCHOR: Dupreeh – (Played very well lately and rates out massively on Nuke)
Top Stacking Options: Dupreeh, device, gla1ve/Magisk
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: mir/iDISBALANCE, ropz, NAF, oSee, NiKo, Dupreeh/device
Top Stacks: Astralis, Spirit, Liquid
Top Values: Will update when salaries are up