Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO September 10
Sean Mitchell breaks down all four matches on the ESL Pro League Season 12 CS:GO DFS slate for Thursday with the playbook!
We are back for another ESL Pro League Season 12 4-match CS:GO DFS slate! Let’s see what we have on tap for this Thursday, September 10th.
NaVi (Ranked 8th in World) vs AGO (Ranked 41st in World)
In our first best of three match of the day for the ESL Pro League Event, we have Group A play between NaVi and AGO. The current betting odds are listing NaVi as a pretty hefty favorite at -400 on the money line to win this match. NaVi is fresh off a huge win over the former number one ranked team in the World in BIG, and a 2-0 sweep at that, while AGO are fresh off the opposite result after being 0-2 swept by OG. We do not have any prior head-to-head data for these two squads, so in that event we will see who the top performers have been lately. For NaVi (13 map sample) it is no shocker that S1mple is still the top dog for this team, and his numbers continue to be way above his teammates lately as well as he sits with a 1.26 Rating, 0.85 KPR, 0.65 DPR, 1.38 IMP, and 86.4 ADR. Two of his confidants are also playing above average lately in electronic who sits with a 1.04 Rating, and Perfecto is a new one to the above-average scene sitting right above the mark at 1.01 Rating as well. For AGO (23 map sample) mhL is the top player for this sample, as he sits with a 1.19 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 0.66 DPR, 1.24 IMP, and 83.9 ADR. Three of the other four player options have played above average lately as well with F1KU at 1.08, Furlan at 1.05, and lastly, GruBy at 1.02. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
The first two ban maps for these two teams include Overpass for AGO and Vertigo for NaVi. NaVi is choosing Dust2 still as their typical first map choice, while AGO has typically been going with Vertigo, which will be banned. Their next most chosen map lately has been Train, and they are supporting a 60%-win clip there as well, but so is NaVi lately. The ony map that we could potentially see AGO go with is Mirage, a map they have won five straight on, and they may need to stick to a map they have been had this kind of success on lately. So, with that said, I am going to think they play this with some type of strategy and go with Mirage, with NaVi going Dust2. Let’s see who has played well on these lately. For NaVi on their projected map choice of Dust2 (11 map sample) we know it is s1mple at the top with a 1.21 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 0.60 DPR, 1.25 IMP, and 79.7 ADR. Three others follow him here with flamie next at 1.08, then its electronic at 1.05, and lastly, Perfecto at 1.01. For Mirage (six map sample) once again it is s1mple with a 1.49 Rating, 0.98 KPR, 0.59 DPR, 1.74 IMP, and 94.2 ADR. Electronic is next at 1.21, and then it is Boombl4 to end it at 1.03. For AGO on their projected map choice of Mirage (17 map sample) mhL is also the lead here with a 1.30 Rating, 0.85 KPR, 0.62 DPR, 1.46 IMP, and 86.8 ADR. After him, it is Furlan at 1.10, F1KU at 1.07, and GruBy at 1.02 to round out the list. For Dust2 (11 map sample) it is F1KU at the top spot for this period with a 1.21 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 0.66 DPR, 1.31 IMP, and 87.0 ADR. MhL comes in next at 1.14, with Gruby at 1.01, and lastly, Furlan at 1.00. Really hard to want to back AGO in this match up against a much better team in NaVi, but I feel that literally no one will play AGO. They are the leverage on this slate, and they won’t have much ownership, but the odds are definitely on NaVi. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: s1mple – (just look at the numbers above)
Top Stacking Options s1mple, electronic, Perfecto/flamie
ANCHOR: mhL – (Best player lately by a decent margin, rates out well on Mirage also)
Top Stacking Options: mhL, F1KU, Furlan
BIG (Ranked 4th in World) vs Heroic (Ranked 3rd in World)
Our second best of three match of the day features two top-five teams in the World coming into Group A play between BIG and Heroic. The current betting odds are listing BIG as just a small -145 favorite on the money line to win this match. As mentioned above, BIG is fresh off a 0-2 drumming at the hands of NaVi but had won their previous two matches by the 2-0 sweep. Heroic found a win in a 2-1 result against G2 in their more recent match, but they had dropped their prior two matches before doing so. These two squads do have some nice history to analyze and have played three total matches so far in 2020. BIG has pretty much owned them so far in 2020, winning all three meetings by a 2-0 sweep. Since we do have six maps, although skewed to the BIG side, let’s see who the best performers were in these matches. For BIG, both tabseN and XANTARES hold similar stat-lines for this sample, with tabseN sitting at +20 K-D diff, 1.29 K-D, and 1.27 Rating, and XANTARES sitting with a +18 K-D diff, 1.27 K-D, and 1.25 Rating. Both syrsoN and K1to also have positive stat-lines as well. For Heroic, niko is the only player to have a positive stat-line and he sits with a +6 K-D diff, 1.08 K-D, and 1.02 Rating. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
The first two ban maps for this match include Tran for BIG, and Overpass for Heroic. Heroic continues to go with Nuke as their typical first map choice, while BIG is going with Dust2 lately. Both of these teams are winning over 70% of their typical first map choices, but we know this match has been one-sided in the past. Heroic have been playing really well lately though, so maybe this is the match they steal a map. Let’s see who the top performers have been for Dust2 and Nuke. For BIG on their projected map choice of Dust2 (16 map sample) it is syrsoN in the lead spot for this one with a 1.20 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 0.58 DPR, 1.30 IMP, and 76.8 ADR. All options follow here with XANTARES at 1.16, tabseN at 1.14, tiziaN at 1.08, and lastly, K1to at 1.04. For Nuke (11 map sample) it is syrsoN once again as the top player for this sample with a 1.22 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 0.60 DPR, 1.23 IMP, and 78 ADR. Three meet him here with tabseN at 1.18, XANTARES at 1.12, tiziaN at 1.04 to round it out. For Heroic on their projected map choice of Nuke (13 map sample) it is the veteran of the team niko with the best stats here lately with a 1.24 Rating , 0.79 KPR, 0.67 DPR, 1.36 IMP, and 88.9 ADR. After niko, it is TeSeS at 1.11, stavn at 1.10, cadiaN at 1.02, and lastly, boRUP at 1.01. For Dust2 (six map sample) only two players sit above a 1.0 Rating here, and the lead is cadiaN at 1.00 Rating, 0.66 KPR, 0.68 DPR, 0.99 IMP, and 69.6 ADR. boRUP is the only other option to fit the bill here, as he also sits at 1.00 Rating. I just don’t think that Heroic has the talent to match up against this BIG team, and it has shown in the past. Heroic has most definitely played well lately, but BIG seems to be their kryptonite. If Heroic could ever win Nuke, they may have a shot. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: syrsoN – (Top ranked played on both maps, and has good numbers against Heroic)
Top Stacking Options: syrsoN, tabseN, XANTARES
ANCHOR: niko – (Going with the veteran leadership here)
Top Stacking Options: niko, stavn, cadiaN
100 Thieves (Ranked 19th in World) vs Chaos (Ranked 25th in World)
In our third best of three match of the day, we have a match from the Group stage between 100T and Chaos. The current betting odds are listing 100T as small -150 favorites on the money line to win this match. 100T have now been losers of four in a row out of their last four, while Chaos is fresh off a breath of fresh air and a 2-0 sweep over Gen.G. These two have played two matches so far in 2020, with their most recent match going the full three-map distance and a Chaos 2-1 result, while the latter match was a 2-0 sweep by 100T. Since we do have five maps of data with each team winning one match a piece, let’s see who the top performers were for these two matches. For 100T, it is jkaem with the best stat-line for this head-to-head analysis as he sits with a +18 K-D diff, 1.21 K-D, and 1.25 Rating. Both jks and Gratisfaction both have small positive stat-lines also. For Chaos, both Xeppaa and Vanity sit with positive stat-lines, but it is Xeppaa with the best numbers sitting at +16 K-D diff, 1.20 K-D, and 1.14 Rating. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
The two first ban maps for this match include Vertigo for Chaos, which happens to be the typical first choice for 100T, and Overpass for 100T. Chaos continues to choose Nuke as their typical first pick, and it has done them well as they have won four straight there lately and have won almost 80% of their last 19 attempts. The next highest chosen map lately for 100T is Inferno and they hold a slight 57% to 50% success rate here over Chaos lately as well. I think we could easily see these two maps, so let’s see who has performed well on these two. For Chaos on their projected map choice of Nuke (19 map sample) it is Xeppaa in the top spot sitting with a 1.21 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 0.62 DPR, 1.11 IMP, and 80.9 ADR. Three others hit the mark here as well with leaf at 1.19, Jonji at 1.17, and lastly, vanity at 1.11. For Inferno (19 map sample) it is Xeppaa in the lead once again with a 1.18 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 0.63 DPR, 1.21 IMP, an 80.2 ADR. Both vanity and leaf sit at 1.00 ratings to end the list here. For 100 Thieves on their projected map choice of Inferno (seven map sample) it is jks at the top of this one with a 1.17 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 0.61 DPR, 1.17 IMP, ad 80.7 ADR. Next, it is jkaem at 1.13, Liazz at 1.08, and AZR at 1.00 to round it out. For Nuke (seven map sample) jkaem is the top player here for this span with a 1.13 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 0.67 DPR, 1.15 IMP, and 80.9 ADR. Just one other follows him here and that is jks with a 1.09 Rating. I think this likely could see the full three map distance. I think Chaos actually has some decent value in this one, and the books are not giving 100T just a ton of credit. Should be an interesting match, and I like stacking it up quite a bit. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: Jkaem – ( I don’t mind jks obviously, but he will be chalk. Jkaem has good numbers lately)
Top Stacking Options: jkaem, jks, Gratisfaction
ANCHOR: Xeppaa – (Don’t even think this is a question)
Top Stacking Options: Xeppaa, leaf, vanity
G2 (Ranked 5th in World) vs ENCE (Ranked 15th in World)
Our fourth and final best of three match is our third Group A match between G2 and ENCE. The current betting odds are listing G2 as the slight favorite here at -130 on the money line to win this match. Both of these teams come into this one in similar form as both dropped their last match but won their prior two. G2 dropped a 1-2 result to Heroic, while ENCE dropped a 1-2 result to GODSENT. These two squads are pretty familiar with each other, as they have played two matches in 2020, with G2 winning both. G2 swept them in their most recent, with the latter match going a full three-map distance with G2 prevailing. Since we have five maps of data, let’s see who the top players were for this sample. Most of G2 have great numbers against ENCE, but the one that stands out is nexa, who sits with a +34 K-D diff, 1.49 K-D, and 1.46 Rating over those five maps. Both kennyS and JaCkz also have over +20 K-D diff as well. For ENCE, not a single player option had a positive stat-line for the five-map sample. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
The first two ban maps include Overpass for G2 and Vertigo for ENCE. ENCE continues to pick Train as their first pick, while G2 has been going with Dust2 lately. Don’t see any reason that these two maps will not be chosen, so let’s see who the top players have been on these lately. For G2 on their projected map choice of Dust2, they literally have not a single player over a 1.00 Rating for this map over their last five attempts. For Train (nine map sample) it is nexa in the lead here with a 1.20 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 0.63 DPR, 1.10 IMP, and 84.2 ADR. He is followed by three teammates here starting with JaCkz at 1.09, kennyS at 1.07, and lastly, hunter- at 1.03. For ENCE on their projected map choice of Train (seven map sample) sergej has been the lead here for this sample with a 1.07 Rating, 0.66 KPR, 0.68 DPR, 1.04 IMP, and 74.4 ADR. Allu is next at 1.02, and Aerial finishes the list at 1.00. For Dust2 (4 map sample) suNny is the only option to make the list here and he sits with a 1.04 Rating, 0.66 KPR, 0.68 DPR, 0.98 IMP, and 78 ADR. I think this match is a lot closer than it looks, and ENCE fresh off a loss will be looking to bounce-back. I think this match could easily see three maps, and we all know G2 loves to donk-off leads and maps at that. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: nexa – (Great numbers against ENCE, and tops Train)
Top Stacking Options: nexa, kennyS, JaCkz
ANCHOR: allu – (Even though he doesn’t have great numbers, he is still their carry most of the time)
Top Stacking Options: allu, sergej, Aerial/sunNy
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: s1mple, syrsoN, tabseN, XANTARES, Xeppaa, jks, nexa
Top Stacks: NaVi, BIG, Chaos, 100T
Top Values: jaCkz, k1to, Liazz, flamie, sergej, leaf, Aerial