Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO July 14
Sean Mitchell breaks down the 2-game Eden Arena Malta Vibes Cup 3 CS:GO DFS slate for Tuesday!
Welcome back, FAnation! We are back finally with another CS:GO DFS playbook brought to you by FantasyAlarm.com! Just writing up the 2-game Malta Vibes slate beginning at 9:00 AM ET. I NEED TO REMIND THESE ARE Bo1 SERIES. I will say it is pretty hard to nail these type of slates down, but we are going to do our best to get some green-screens! Let’s get it.
FATE (Ranked 45th in World) vs Budapest Five (Ranked 82nd in World)
We open the day with an opening match out of Group A play for the Eden Arena Malta Vibes Cup 3 with FATE and Budapest Five. Again, to reiterate, this is just ONE MAP, that is all. So, stacking isn’t just primary key mainly for these types of slates, as you have to shoot for max upside, whatever that build you feel may be. The current betting line for this match is FATE -141 on the money line. Neither of these two teams comes into this one in great recent form, as FATE have lost four of their last five, while Budapest Five have lost three of their last five, however, have won two of their last three matches, so that’s somewhat of a plus for them. These two teams have faced off once so far this year in the CyberBet Summer Cup 2020, where FATE took care of business in a 2-0 result with a score of 16-11 on Dust2, and 22-19 OT thriller on Mirage as well. Since we do have this recent match, we can see who performed the best in it. For FATE, h4rn was heads-above his teammates with a heft +21 K-D diff, 54-33 K-D, and 1.30 rating. Patrick had a decent day on the server in this one as well going 51-43 with a 1.18 rating (Remind this was a Bo3, not Bo1). For Budapest, torzsi had the best overall day with a +2 K-D diff, going 51-49 K-D, and a 1.08 rating. He led the team in frags as well, but it was kory who topped him in Kill-Asst% with a 75% to 64.7% for torzsi. Since we do not have a ton of recent head-to-head data, I usually like to see who has performing the best overall over the last month to see if any outliers have been sticking out. For FATE, mar has been the top rating at 1.10, while also sporting a 0.73 KPR, 1.12 IMP, and 81.1 ADR. H4rn hasn’t been able to match mar’s KPR, however, his 0.60 DPR compared to 0.68 for mar, is something to be noticed. We know that staying alive is huge in best of ones, as we want guys who don’t typically die a ton. For Budapest Five, kory comes in as the top play as of late, hoisting a 0.73 KPR, 1.26 IMP, and 83 ADR. However, torzsi (top fragger last time out) has just .02 rating lower, a 0.75 KPR, AND a 0.66 KPR compared to 0.73 KPR for kory. You can see the differences there. Let’s see if we can try to land a projected map pick for this one.
The first two typical bans lately to begin with for these two have included Vertigo and Nuke. So, we can throw those out. Overpass and Inferno are the next highest banned maps in play. Mirage is also a slightly banned map, so that leaves us with Train and Dust2. Seeing as how Train is the typical first choice of FATE, we could conceptualize that it could be banned. I think this one does come down to Train or Dust2 however. Leaning to Dust2, as it is a middling map for both here, but Train has also been decently good to both teams, so it wouldn’t shock me to see it land there either. So, with that said, let’s see who has performed the best on these two maps lately. For FATE on Train (11 maps over last month) h4rn is the lead with a 1.18 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.16 IMP, and 73.2 ADR. Just followed by one other teammate and that is mar at 1.11. For Dust2 (11 map sample over last month) h4rn seems to be a popular top play as he is here once again sitting with a 1.22 rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.24 IMP, and 70.4 ADR. Followed by three others here however, starting with mar at 1.18, blocker at 1.12, and finally Patrick at 1.07. For Budapest Five on Train (12 map sample over last month) kory leads here with a 1.09 rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.20 IMP, and 82.2 ADR. Two others fit the bill here with fieav at 1.07 and torzsi at 1.04. For Dust2 (10 map sample over last month) it is kory once again here with a 1.07 rating, 0.68 KPR, 1.11 IMP, and 77.9 ADR. Only one other follows him here and it is torzsi at 1.03. I think this match is pretty clear-cut that FATE is the favorite, and I feel they likely win this match. They seem to have the better overall team make-up and better star-power as well. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: h4rn – (Just feel his stats over last month and on projected maps could lead to a ceiling performance)
Top Stacking Options: h4rn, mar, Patrick/blocker
ANCHOR: kory – (Tops the projected maps, been their best player)
Top Stacking Options: kory, torzsi, fleav
PACT (Ranked 50th in World) vs Singularity (Ranked 81st in World)
In our last Bo1 match of the day, we have another opening match out of Group A play with PACT and Singularity. PACT comes in as the largest favorite on the slate at -250 on the money line to win it. Once again, looking at both of these team’s recent form, neither is that great. PACT has only won one match out of their last five, and so has Singularity. These two had played one Bo1 series earlier this year, as PACT took a 16-9 victory on Vertigo in the WINNERS League Season 4 Europe. The top performers for this one included TOBIZ for Singularity with a 24-19 K-D, 1.29 Rating, and 104.0 ADR. He was the only player for them to finish in the positive on the day. For PACT, three players hit plus differentials with lunAtic coming in with the best overall stat-line with a 27-15 K-D, 1.58 Rating, 99.6 ADR. Behind him was Goofy at 26-16, and darko also went 21-13 for a nice day as well. Let’s see who has shined over the last month for these two squads. For PACT, Goofy has been the go-to with a 1.08 rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.06 IMP, and 79.9 ADR. Both Sobol and darko have reached a rating above a 1.0 with Sobol at 1.04, and darko right above at 1.01. For Singularity, well obviously they have an over-haul of their team basically. They have stand-ins for two of their players and have played less than 5 matches with their new core. NOT. GOOD. Let’s put it this way, they got rolled by Gambit Youngsters 0-2 in their last match and didn’t win over 8 rounds in either map. They did hang tough with forZe in their best of one before that 0-2 loss but had one player still from their original core. Seems this team has some growing pains to go through, and that’s really hard to do on the fly. Just looking over their last 3 months individually, it seems that it is nicoodoz in the first slot, and Celrate after. Nicoodoz does sport a 1.12 rating, and 0.71 KPR, while Celrate comes in next and only showing a meager 0.66 KPR. Again, not good. Let’s look at a map.
First two ban maps lately have included Mirage and Train. Next two with larger than normal ban rates include Nuke and Inferno. This leaves us with Overpass and Dust2. Both teams have losing streaks on Dust2 lately, so I think it is likely we could see Overpass for this one. Since we really only have good raw data for PACT, let’s see who is performing the best on Overpass for them. Surprise, Surprise, Goofy tops it quite convincingly with a 1.28 rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.30 IMP, and 91.9 ADR. Sobol comes in next with a 1.15, MINISE and darko both at 1.07, and even lunAtic comes in at 1.01. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: Goofy – (No need to over-think this one, he is a carrier)
Top Stacking Options: Goofy, Sobol, darko
ANCHOR: nicoodoz – (Easily their best player, has best numbers lately)
Top Stacking Options: nicoodoz, Celrate, TOBIZ