Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO July 6
Sean Mitchell brings you all the analysis you will need for Monday's two-match Mythic Invite League CSGO DFS slate!
Just a two-match slate in the Mythic Invite League for today, and to be honest these are some lesser-known teams, so the data will be highly reflected on for today and will have to essentially put more weight on match-up and more recent individual performances. It is important to note though that this is the PLAYOFFS for this league, so these teams have at least done something right lately. Let’s see what we got.
Mythic (Ranked 82nd in World) vs Polar Ace (Ranked 124th in World)
How ironic that Mythic is in the Mythic Invite League? They do seem to be the favorite here, right? Seeing as how Polar Ace doesn’t even know who their fifth player will be as of the current time? It is worth mentioning that they only have four players on DK roster at the moment, and I highly doubt they add whoever is playing later on, so just note that. Looking at GG.BET, it is clear who the books are backing today in this match, as Mythic are currently sitting at almost two times the size of favorite of the second largest favorite of the two matches at -500 on the money line to win today. After reviewing how Polar Ace has played as of late as well, it was pretty easy to determine that well, they really are just not that good. HOWEVER, their only win in their last five matches, you ask? It was a 16-13 best of one win on Train against none other than – Mythic. Wild, right? Other than that, they have lost all four others, including a 16-3 obliteration by Recon 5, 22-20 OT loss to Keep the Comms, a close result of 16-9 to AA, and their most recent loss being a 16-13 best of one to Levitate. All of these were best of ones, however, today’s match with Mythic will be a best of three. For Mythic, they have won three of their last five, including their most recent loss being a reverse sweep to Chaos in the Grand Final of the ESEA MDL Season 34 North America Event. To even make it to a Grand Final has to garner some merit right off the bat but being swept was not exactly a great look. Nonetheless, Chaos just likely has their number as two of their lone two losses of their last five have been to Chaos. A couple of decent wins in there as well though, with a 2-1 result over Recon 5, a 2-0 sweep of the New England Whalers (also on this slate in the late match), and a 2-1 result over the Swedish Canadians. These two squads have only played just that lone best of one map on Train, but we can mention who played well. The top performers for Mythic was fl0m and Keiti, fl0m left with a 24-20 K-D, 1.24 rating, and 86.6 ADR, while Keiti also put up 21 frags compared to just 18 deaths, with a 1.07 rating and 75.9 ADR. For Polar Ace, both cxzi and Lacore scored over 24 frags a piece, both sporting over 1.30 ratings, and Lacore ended up with a 101.2 ADR, while cxzi recorded an 88.5 ADR, both pretty impressive ADRs to say the least. Looking over the last month of play for these two teams, I felt it might do a little service to mention who has been playing well, more so, recent form. For Mythic, both fl0m and zNf have both recorded a 1.13 rating over their last 17 maps over last month of play, fl0m coming in with a slight edge in K-D at 1.10, compared to zNf only at 1.05. zNf does have a slight advantage when it comes to headshot percentage, as he is a smidge above average at 54.1%, compared to just 33.3% for fl0m. For Polar Ace, first off, they have only played four maps in the last month, so there is that, and none of their players on the current active roster (only four remember) have over a 1.0 rating for those four maps. RenZ is the lead with a 0.99 rating, 0.66 KPR, and 72.5 ADR. Magowi close second at 0.94 rating, 0.62 KPR, and 66.1 ADR.
After trying to find some map data for these two, it was quite evident that Polar Ace literally has not played enough lately to show their typical bans and first map choices. We can see that Nuke has been a first ban of Mythic, and Mirage has been their typical first map choice. However, their best maps on short samples lately has been Vertigo and Overpass. Looking over Mythic’s last five matches, it appears they want to play on Vertigo. Only one instance in those five where Vertigo wasn’t banned off the bat by the opponent (other first map pick for Mythic was Dust2), Mythic chose Vertigo as their map pick. Let’s see who has played well here lately. Over the last six months (10 maps at Vertigo) its fl0m at 1.15 rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.29 IMP, and 77.2 ADR, with Keiti right on his heels at 1.14 rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.21 IMP, and 83.3 ADR. Keiti leads a bit in the ADR department, and fl0m has a small edge in Kill-Asst%. I really don’t like one-map sample sizes, as I think anyone can have a ceiling map on any give day, but that is literally all Polar Aces have played over the last calendar year that is recorded is just one map at Vertigo. Magowi had quite the day with a 31 frag performance, 1.57 rating, 1.07 KPR, 1.66 IMP, and 101.0 ADR. RenZ had 19 frags, 1.13 rating, 0.66 KPR, and 79.2 ADR for that map as well. So, it seems pretty easy here that Mythic will easily be the chalk of this match, and likely the whole slate, but it seems that Polar Ace may provide a one-off scenario, or even a 2-man stack in a 3x2x1 roster construction. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: fl0m – (Its between he and Keiti, both have been very good lately)
Top Stacking Options: fl0m, Keiti, zNf
ANCHOR: cxzi - (with Magowi and Lacore OUT now, cxzi was just added to the player pool and he is the one you want for PAs)
Top Stacking Options: cxzi, RenZ, Wollfe
Oceanus (Ranked 75th in World) vs New England Whalers (Ranked 56th in World)
The second best of three match for today has a bit more information and data with less uncertainty about roster spots as the first. We have one team we have seen once or twice so far in the New England Whalers, and one that we haven’t as much in Oceanus. The current betting odds have the Whalers as a -233 favorite on the money line to win this best of three playoff match today. The Whalers come into this one fresh off an 0-2 loss to Chaos and have dropped three of their last four as well, with just a 2-1 win over Recon5 in their last four. Oceanus has dropped their last two in a row to Recon 5 and Levitate. They had been on a small winning-streak of two before dropping those two best of threes, winning two best of ones against Recon 5 and Chaos to be exact. These two teams have faced off in two best of one series in 2020, with them both splitting a win a piece. Oceanus has had a few team names since the beginning of 2019, as they were the Rugratz most recently before becoming Oceanus, and also were Divine before becoming Rugratz. Since we do have a small amount of data (only we don’t have wippie on HTLV, yet we do have mada there who is NOT ON THE SLATE – wippie is) we can see who performed the best for their last two best of ones in 2020 so far. For Oceanus, both penny and Hunter finished with the top frags in their most recent match on Overpass, penny ended with the higher rating of 1.11, and an 84.8 ADR. For the Whalers, ben1337 had quite the map here, going for 27-17 with a 1.64 rating, and 110.9 ADR. Three players topped a 1.26 rating for this one in ben1337, PwnAlone, and BOOBIE. PwnAlone ended with 21 frags on the day, compared to just 15 deaths as well. For the latter match in 2020, (when Oceanus was Rugratz still) tweiss had a nice one on Mirage with a 23-8 K-D, 1.71 rating, and 85.1 ADR for Oceanus, with Hunter also going for 21 frags and a 1.31 rating. For the Whalers, BOOBIE led this one with a 23-20 K-D, 1.17 rating, with PwnAlone next at 21-18 K-D and 1.15 rating. Let’s look at some potential maps.
The first two banned maps for these two include Inferno for both actually. The next highest percentage of banned maps includes Train (Whalers) and Overpass (Oceanus). The typical first map choices lately have been Mirage for Oceanus, and Nuke for the Whalers. Whalers will definitely be gunning for Nuke, as this is a map they have played 13 times lately, with Overpass being the only other map they have played more at 17. Oceanus has not played any one map more than three times over the last three months, so a bit of a hard notion to take with them here, and Mirage has not been a great map for them either only winning one of their last three there, while Whalers have won four of their last five there. I believe it would be a nice map strategy pick for Oceanus to target Train, as Whalers have lost six-straight there lately, and have yet to record a win there, while Oceanus has won all three of their last three there. Also, this will be quite dependent on who gets the first map ban selection. Train could be potentially banned as Whaler’s selection in the event that Oceanus gets the first pick to ban, in that event it will definitely be Inferno. If this does not happen, I think we could easily see Nuke and Train. Let’s see if there are any stand-outs here lately. For Oceanus on Nuke (four map sample) penny is at the top with a 1.24 rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.27 IMP, and 86.2 ADR. Two others follow here in zander at 1.13, and tweiss at 1.10. For Train (three map sample) it is penny once again at the lead with a hefty 1.41 rating, 0.93 KPR, 1.54 IMP, and 94.2 ADR. Followed very closely by tweiss at 1.40, and Hunter at 1.07. For Whalers on their projected choice of Nuke (13 map sample) PwnAlone tops the list with a 1.35 rating, 0.88 KPR, 1.33 IMP, and 89.2 ADR. Followed by all his teammates starting with djay at 1.15, Rampage at 1.15 as well, ben1337 at 1.04, and BOOBIE at 1.0. For Train (six map sample) Rampage sits in the lead here lately with a 1.04 rating, 0.69 KPR, 0.99 IMP, and 71.2 ADR. Just one follows him here in PwnAlone at 1.03. To be honest, I believe the Whalers will end up being quite chalky as well here, and I don’t just feel overly confident that they will win. I think this one has the most likely chance of going three full maps to be quite honest, and I feel Oceanus has some value on this slate. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: penny – (Tops both projected map picks, great numbers and KPRs, feel he is the carry here)
Top Stacking Options: penny, tweiss, Hunter
NEW ENGLAND WHALERS:
ANCHOR: PwnAlone – (Dude is a beast and I know he is the carry for this team, however, I also feel that this team could likely also have a more evenly distributed team-kills and that could hurt his upside some)
Top Stacking Options: PwnAlone, Rampage, djay (BOOBIE as value)