Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO June 11
Sean Mitchell brings breaks down the three-match CS:GO slate for Thursday along with projected map analysis, favorite plays, stacks, and values!
We are back for another three-match slate of the DreamHack Masters event as we near even closer to the Grand Finale. Today for this Thursday, we get two more matches for the lower-bracket round three, as well as the upper-bracket final as well. Let’s jump in!
NaVi (Ranked 1st in World) vs MAD Lions (Ranked 17th in World)
The first match of the day is one from the lower-bracket semi-final rounds where the winner of this match will go on to face either FaZe or NiP in the lower-bracket final on Friday. MAD took care of business in the opening match on Wednesday against Fnatic, however it did take them a full three-maps to do so. MAD and Fnatic traded their own map choices, and MAD took care of business on the third and final map being Mirage to win the series 2-1. NaVi were dealt quite a shocker in an 0-2 sweep at the hands of G2. G2 swung hard on the first map of Mirage, which was their selection and it took a 22-19 double-OT stance, but they prevailed and then took care of NaVi on NaVi’s map choice of Dust2 by a final score of 16-12 to secure the sweep. I do expect to see a slight bounce-back from NaVi in this one, however, MAD have been so stout for this event after losing their first matches at the beginning, and then reeling off three straight wins and two by the sweep over Fnatic, Spirit, and Mousesports. NaVi had also reeled off three straight wins of their own over Mouse, FaZe, and NiP before being dealt the loss to G2. We do not have any prior or even any head-to-head data at all for these two teams, so we can go ahead and look to some projected maps for any potential edges.
The first two ban map choices for these two squads is Inferno for MAD and Vertigo for NaVi. The first choices lately have been Dust2 for NaVi and Mirage for MAD. Pretty certain that NaVi will go with Dust2 if given that option as they have gone with it 60% of the time lately, and I think MAD can literally choose between Nuke and Mirage. They looked very good on the third map against Fnatic. So, with that said, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them stick with Mirage. I think we could easily see these two maps, so let’s see who is performing well on both Mirage and Dust2. For NaVi on their projected choice of Dust2 (14 map sample) S1mple sits heavily at the top with a 1.40 rating, 0.90 KPR, 1.50 IMP, and 88.5 ADR. Followed by electronic at 1.26 and flamie at 1.01 to round it out. On Mirage (three map sample) electronic leads them on this one with a 1.12 rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.13 IMP, and 75.2 ADR. Next is S1imple at 1.06, and lastly Perfecto at 1.04 to end the list. For MAD on their projected map selection of Mirage (12 map sample) Bubz leads the list with a 1.29 rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.37 IMP, and 90.0 ADR. AcoR comes in next at 1.25, roeJ at 1.12, and sjuush at 1.07. For Dust2 (seven map sample) interestingly enough, AcilioN leads the list with a 1.24 rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.22 IMP, and 76.3 ADR. Followed by Bubz at 1.20, sjuush at 1.19, and acoR at 1.02. After looking over the projected map data, my liking for MAD grew even more and I feel pretty strongly that MAD will win this match and could even deal them a 2-0 sweep. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: S1mple – (He will be major chalk likely, as he usually is, but the dude is a stud. Only other option I would consider at the cpt spot would be electronic)
Top Stacking Options: S1mple, electronic, Perfecto/flamie
ANCHOR: Bubzkji – (Overall the best play on this team, and he has the upside needed to get your lineups rolling when he is clicking, and the projected maps fit this bill for him also)
Top Stacking Options: Bubzkji, acoR, AcilioN
FaZe (Ranked 7th in World) vs NiP (Ranked
We get our second match of the day and the second match out of the lower-bracket. The winner of this match will face off against either NaVi or MAD Lions in the lower-bracket final and will have the opportunity to take on the winner of G2 or BIG in the Consolidation final on Saturday. FaZe would more than likely love to get into this consolidation final, especially if they get a grunge match against BIG, the team that 2-0 swept them on just two days ago. FaZe looked rusty to be flat out honest. I do not want to take anything away from BIG’s performance, because it was absolutely a flawless performance as well. FaZe are now on a two-match skid as well, so they will also be looking for a bounce-back in the win column here against NiP. NiP slipped past both Astralis and Vitality with both ending in a 2-1 result and going the full three-map distance. There is currently not a line up for this match, so don’t have that to analyze, however we do have some past head-to-head data we can look at. The edge in the prior head-to-heads belongs to FaZe, as they have secured both matches that were played so far in 2020, the latter being a 2-0 sweep, with the most recent being a 2-1 victory for them in the Road to Rio tournament. Since we do have quite a bit of head-to-head data, let’s see what players have shined against their opponents here. For FaZe (over last 6 months, 7 map sample) four of the five players have a positive K-D against NiP beginning with NiKo at +23 K-D Diff, 1.16 K-D, and 1.16 Rating. Followed by Coldzera at +11 K-D diff, 1.08 K-D, and 1.04 Rating. Both Broky and Rain also have positive K-Ds but sit at just 1.07 and 1.08 and under ten K-D Diffs. For NiP (seven map sample also) only one player sits with a positive K-D and that is Plopski at +4 K-D Diff, 1.03 K-D, and 1.02 rating. Let’s see if we can find some projected maps.
The first two ban maps lately for these two include Dust2 for NiP, and Vertigo for FaZe. The first map choices have been Mirage for FaZe, and Overpass for NiP. We did see NiP pick Mirage first yesterday against Vitality throwing a curveball, but seeing that Mirage is FaZe favorite map, likely can feel a bit more confident we see Overpass. I do feel pretty confident we will see Mirage and Overpass for this one. Let’s see who is performing well on these. For FaZe on their projected map choice of Mirage (10 map sample) no other than NiKo at the top with a 1.23 rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.36 IMP, and 89.0 ADR. Followed by coldzera with 1.18, broky with 1.15, and rain with 1.11. For Overpass (eight map sample) NiKo once again at the top with a 1.17 rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.17 IMP, and 83.9 ADR. Next is Bymas at 1.16, broky at 1.06, and lastly coldzera at 1.05 to round it out. For NiP on their projected map selection of Overpass (14 map sample) twist is the man here with his AWP sitting at a 1.28 rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.36 IMP, and 79.8 ADR. Followed up by REZ at 1.25, nawwk at 1.17, and Plopski at 1.13. For Mirage (seven map sample) hampus sits at the top with a 1.18 rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.35 IMP, and 83.7 ADR. Next is Plopski at 1.14, twist at 1.03 and nawwk barely at the threshold of 1.0. After analyzing the map data, and the prior head-to-head matches, I do believe I have to side with the likely dog in this one in NiP. NiP has shown some major resiliency in their prior few matches up to this point, and their win over Vitality was pretty convincing that they are really coming around with the hampus chemistry. I think they will likely be well under-owned, and I think they have a pretty legit shot at winning this match as well. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: NiKo – (Really no need for detail here, leads team for both projected maps and he is their best player by a good margin)
Top Stacking Options: NiKo, coldzera, broky/Bymas
ANCHOR: Plopski – (Plop has been playing excellently lately, sets up nicely individually for both projected maps as well and is the only positive play vs FaZe in their past matches)
Top Stacking Options: Plopski, twist, hampus
FURIA (Ranked 8th in World) vs 100 Thieves (Ranked 11th in World)
We have the lone upper-bracket match for this slate as the third and final match of the day, and as it was noted above this is the final for this bracket as well. According to the current betting odds, FURIA comes in as a -165 favorite on the money line to win this match, while the Under 2.5 maps is also juiced up a bit to -130. I think it is worth noting that 100T has not played since the 4th of this month, meaning they have had close to a week off, this could be a good thing for studying, or a bad thing for the rust factor. FURIA got in a little warm up yesterday in the opener for ESL Pro League with a 2-0 sweep over Infinity, so they should be oiled back up and ready to go. Looking at the past head-to-head matches for these two teams, FURIA leads the series with a three match wins compared to just a single match win for 100T in their four matches. The most recent, and the only match they have played in 2020 saw FURIA win with a 2-1 result in the ESL Pro League Season 11. Since we do have some prior head-to-head data, I like to see who has performed the best in these head-to-heads, so will list that now. This is for a five-map sample (past 12 months) FURIA only has two players on that have a positive K-D vs 100T, KSCERATO leading with a +12 K-D Diff, 1.17 K-D, and 1.14 Rating, followed by HEN1 with a +1 K-D Diff, 1.01 K-D, and 1.07 Rating. For 100T, only one option exceeds a 1.0 K-D for them and it is jks with a +20 K-D diff, 1.14 K-D, and 1.08 rating over their last nine maps played. Let’s check out some projected maps for any added edges.
The first two ban maps for these include Overpass for 100T and Dust2 for FURIA. The first map selections lately have been Mirage for FURIA, where they have a 10-map winning streak going as well, and Vertigo for 100T. Will be very interesting to see if 100T plays map strategy and bans Mirage due to the 100% success rate and 10 out of last 10 map wins for FURIA on that map. It would make a ton of sense, right? Vertigo has been a good map so far lately to FURIA as well, winning six of their last 10 tries there as well, just shortly behind 100T and their 71% success rate there, so I doubt FURIA minds playing this one. In the event that 100T bans Mirage, I feel we likely see FUIRA go with Inferno, a map they have played the most lately at a total of 14 attempts, while also securing a 65%-win rate there in those attempts. Inferno would also present a slight edge for FURIA, as 100T have only been able to win roughly 40% of their last 5 opportunities there. Either way, I believe the maps do present a small edge here in the favor of FURIA, and I do believe FURIA is the team to beat in this event as well. Going to assume we lock in Vertigo and am just going to go out on a limb and say 100T plays it smart and bans Mirage and we get FURIA choosing Inferno. Let’s check out who is playing well on these two lately. For FURIA on their projected map choice of Inferno (14 map sample) KSCERATO tops the list at 1.29 rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.24 IMP, and 84.3 ADR. Followed up closely by HEN1 at 1.26, yuurih at 1.15, and arT at 1.01 to round out the list. For FURIA on Vertigo (10 map sample) yuuirh and his AWP have been the best here lately with a 1.24 rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.26 IMP, and 86.8 ADR. Next is HEN1 once again at 1.17, arT at 1.14, and lastly KSCERATO at 1.06. Looking at 100T on their projected map pick of Vertigo (seven map sample) jkaem sits atop the list for this one with a hefty 1.32 rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.51 IMP, and 88.7 ADR. Next is jks at 1.31, AZR with 1.15, Gratisfaction with 1.15, and lastly Liazz with a 1.12. Good map for them obviously. On Inferno (five map sample) Gratisfaction leads the team with a 1.17 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.21 IMP, and 81.6 ADR. All others eclipse the 1.0 threshold for this map as well with jkaem next at 1.13, jks at 1.10, Liazz at 1.07, and AZR at 1.06. After looking over the projected map data, I really think we see a close match here, and I would not be shocked one single bit to see a full three-map affair here as well. The maps somewhat give a slight advantage to 100T in terms of individual statistics, yet I feel that FURIA is the stronger team overall, if that makes sense. Let’s talk player options.
ANCHOR: KSCERATO – (Best numbers vs 100T, and has good numbers for both projected maps, I honestly think you can go with HEN1 or yuuirh as well for value capts)
Top Stacking Options: KSCERTAO, HEN1, yuurih
ANCHOR: Jkaem – (Top player projected for the maps we feel could be played here. Jks is also in consideration of course with the best numbers by far against FUR in prior matches)
Top Stacking Options: jkaem, jks, Gratisfaction ( Feel AZR and LIAZZ will be nice value as well if stacking)
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: Bubzkji, Plopski, KSCERATO, NiKo, jkaem/jks, S1mple (not ranked in order)
Top Stacks: MAD, NiP, FUR, 100T, FaZe, NaVi (ranked in order)
Top Values: acoR, REZ, twist, jkaem, AZR, Liazz, hampus