Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO June 8
Sean Mitchell breaks down all three DreamHack Masters lower-bracket rounds today with his favor plays, stacks, and values!
Welcome back, FANation! For this Monday, June 8th, we get right back into the 3-game DreamHack slates. These are the beginnings of the upper and lower bracket rounds as we enter the playoffs for this event. Let’s see what looks good in these matches!
Complexity (Ranked 17th in World) vs Fnatic (Ranked 3rd in World)
These two squads are meeting in the first round of the lower bracket with Complexity who was the second seed in Group B, and Fnatic the third seed in Group C currently. The current betting odds have Fnatic listed as a -155 favorite on the money line to win this match, and the Under 2.5 maps is also juiced up to -145 at the time. The odds on the money line seem a bit low for a team that has yet to lose a map in four tries against Complexity. Fnatic and Complexity have played twice already this year, once in RtR and once in the ESL Pro League. Fnatic was the victor in both matches, both by the 2-0 sweep. It is evident that the most recent match in the RtR however was much closer, as both maps played went all 30 or more rounds, with Nuke ending 14-16 and Inferno ending in OT at 19-16. Complexity comes into this match in really good form, winning their last four of five matches. Fnatic is fresh off an 0-2 sweep at the hands of Vitality but had won their prior three matches before that loss. Fnatic will look to get back on track against a team they have had lots of success against. Since we do have some head-to-head data to analyze, wanted to throw out a few of the top individual statistics for these two against each other. For Complexity, oBo leads the team in their prior matches vs Fnatic with a +7 K-D differential, 1.09 K-D, and 1.12 Rating. blameF comes in next, and the only other player for COMP with a positive stat line at +4 K-D differential, 1.05 K-D, and 1.08 Rating in four map sample. For Fnatic, Brollan and JW have had lots of success, Brollan with a +21 K-D Differential, 1.28 K-D, and 1.27 Rating, and JW with +24 K-D differential, 1.35 K-D, and 1.30 Rating. Let’s take a look at some maps.
The first two ban maps for these two include Overpass for Complexity, and Vertigo for Fnatic. Its really going to be a pick your poison type ban choice for Fnatic, as both Mirage and Vertigo have been excellent maps for them, Fantic will likely continue to ban Vertigo, leaving a likely first map choice of Mirage for Complexity. Highly believe that we see Train or Inferno selected by Fnatic. With Inferno being the typical choice, and one of the most-played maps for Fnatic, I’ll believe we see it and Mirage for the two map picks. Need I remind that Fnatic have lost five-straight maps on Mirage as well. Let’s see who is performing well on these two maps. For Complexity on Mirage (23 map sample) blameF tops the list with a 1.26 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.09 IMP, and 85.8 ADR. Followed up by k0nfig at 1.19, poizon at 1.14, and oBo at 1.10. For Inferno (nine map sample) k0nfig leads the team here with a 1.26 rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.46 IMP, and 85.4 ADR. Followed closely by blameF at 1.24, oBo at 1.09, and RUSH at 1.07. For Fnatic on Mirage (14 map sample) KRIMZ is at the top with a 1.12 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.09 IMP, and 82 ADR. Next is flusha and Brollan both at 1.04, and JW at 1.01. For Inferno (17 map sample) flusha tops the list with a 1.15 rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.21 IMP, and 86.4 ADR. Second on the list is JW with a 1.09, next is KRIMZ at 1.07, and finally Brollan at 1.05 to round it out. To be honest, I think Complexity has some really nice value in this match. They have been playing a ton lately, so the experience on multiple maps will play some here. Fnatic really have looked good and bad lately, and I believe this match could see three maps. I believe the money line number on this is a bit telling, as the books aren’t really hanging much juice on Fnatic in this one, which tells me there’s nice value on Complexity, and the maps are not an advantage at all for Fnatic as well, if anything, they favor Complexity. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: blameF – (Been crushing lately, a 1.26 rating and 0.76 KPR over L3 months overall. If they win, he has big stats)
Top Stacking Options: blameF, k0nfig, oBo
ANCHOR: Brollan – (Has the best numbers in their prior matches, and has really come around lately)
Top Stacking Options: Brollan, JW, KRIMZ
MAD Lions (Ranked 15th in World) vs Spirit (Ranked 13th in World)
Another match out of the lower bracket first round here with MAD, who was the third seed in Group B, and Spirit who sits in the second seed currently in Group C. MAD comes into this match just a very slight favorite at -120 on the money line. If you want to play Spirit, you will still have to lay -110 on them to win as well, so both teams sit with the vig on, as the books likely are pretty split on the winner of this match. We saw Spirit come into this DreamHack event winning their first match against Fnatic in a 2-0 sweep, and beating GODSENT 2-1, with their only loss coming to FaZe in a 1-2 result in a match they likely should have won if it had not been for a power-outage for Mir. MAD comes into this one in good form winning three of their last four with one tie against Mouse. However, they did get swept by ENCE in their most recent match on Sunday. Spirit has had almost a week off, so expect them to be ready for this match, while expect MAD to be looking to get back into the winning way with a bounce-back as well. No recent head-to-heads for these two squads, so let’s look to the maps to see if we can find an edge here.
The first two bans for these squads lately include Inferno for MAD, and Vertigo for Spirit. Spirit has typically been choosing Dust2 for their first choice, however they have had a bit of a bad run there lately losing their last four tries there in a row. First pick for MAD has been Mirage, and this map doesn’t present an edge at all, as both have played this map a total of ten times as of late, with both winning approximately seven of those ten attempts. I think if Spirit wanted to play strategy, they could go with Overpass, a map they have won nearly 90% of their last eight tries on, while MAD has only played this map just once in the last three months. Its literally the only other map that presents a nice edge for them. If they decide to do so, I could see this match being a very competitive match, and likely goes the full three-map distance in my opinion. Let’s see who is doing well on these maps. For MAD on Mirage (10 map sample) Bubzkji sits atop the list with a 1.28 rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.40 IMP, and 89 ADR. acoR follows at 1.20, roeJ at 1.14, and sjuush at 1.06. On Overpass (one map), I don’t feel that these numbers can be used for any weight, as it was just one map that they did win, so the numbers are heavily skewed. For Spirit on Mirage (10 map sample) no shocker here as mir is at the top with a 1.28 rating, 0.85 KPR, 1.42 IMP, and 87 ADR. Somedieyoung comes in next at 1.21, iDISBALANCE at 1.13, magixx at 1.12, and chopper at 1.07, so all player options really nice looks on Mirage. For Overpass (eight map sample) mir sits bigly on this one with a 1.43 rating, 0.85 KPR, 1.54 IMP, and 91.1 ADR. iDISBALANCE is next with a 1.19, chopper at 1.16, sdy at 1.16 as well, and lastly 1.14 for magixx, so once again, really good numbers for Spirit if they decide to use Overpass against MAD. I really feel pretty confident that we see three maps here, and I think Spirit will have quite a bit of value, and I could assume they will likely be a bit chalky on this slate as well, as everyone has had time to see how they have played lately. MAD may actually be the leverage, and low-ownership on this slate, which wouldn’t surprise me as Spirit has came up chalky in their prior couple matches. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: Bubzkji – (Has the upside you need, we have seen him put up monster games lately, and they will need him bigly if they want to win this match)
Top Stacking Options: Bubzkji, acoR, roeJ/sjuush
ANCHOR: mir – (no need for explanation here if you read the break-down)
Top Stacking Options: mir, iDISBALANCE, sdy/chopper (magixx likely to have the most-lower-ownership value here)
Heroic (Ranked 27th in World) vs Vitality (Ranked 10th in World)
As I write this, Vitality is playing NiP in the semi-finals for the BLAST Premier Spring 2020 Europe Finals spot. This match will round out the day for DreamHack, as well as make the next to last match for the lower bracket round 1 with Heroic, who is the current 3rd seed in Group A, and Vitality who is the number two seed in Group D. The current betting odds have Vitality listed at -205 on the money line to win this. Under 2.5 maps sits juiced up to -150 as well. These two squads faced off twice in 2019 with Vitality winning four of the five games played, as well as a 2-0 sweep in their most recent match. Vitality had strung together three wins out of their prior four matches, while Heroic has won four of their last five, however they dropped their most recent match against Complexity via the 2-0 sweep. Heroic have shown they can play with the top-tier competition beating North 2-0, losing to G2 1-2, and losing to Astralis before Astralis lost two of their players to mental breaks. Let’s look at some maps for an edge here.
The first two bans for these two squads include Dust2 for Heroic, and Train for Vitality. Both of these teams have been picking Nuke as their first pick lately. Heroic has won Nuke nine out of their last 10 tries, while Vitality got destroyed by NiP on the first map on Sunday which was Nuke, and Vitality’s map choice. Vitality only other map they have even a slight advantage on is Vertigo, a map they ended NiP’s tournament on being the decider map in their match yesterday. I could easily see Vitality going with Vertigo, and even banning Nuke, as it is Heroic’s best map by far. Then it would likely be Inferno, or Dust2 in the event that Vitality does ban Nuke, which would be smart it seems. I really am not sure how these maps will end up, as it is apparent that Nuke is a big map here, so if Vitality bans it, we likely see Inferno and Vertigo, but I’m not as confident. Looking over the projected map picks here though, it could go either way I feel between these two squads. Vitality fresh off a three-map full distance match against NiP on Sunday, and Heroic having a few days off, will be interesting to see who comes out firing. I honestly don’t love Vitality here, don’t love laying -200 or more on them, and I think Heroic could easily win a map, especially if they happen to be gifted Nuke. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: stavn – (Carrying a 1.22 rating, 0.76 KPR 1.14 IMP, ad 80.8 ADR over L24 maps vs top 30 opponents)
Top Stacking Options: stavn, niko, cadiaN/TeSeS
ANCHOR: ZywOo – (no need for detail here, put up 36 kills on Vertigo yesterday to abuse NiP)
Top Stacking Options: ZywOo, shox, RpK
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: ZywOo, blameF, k0nfig, mir, Brollan, stavn, Bubzkji (Not ranked in order)
Top Stacks: Complexity, MAD, Heroic, Spirit (Ranked in order)
Top Values: JW, iDISBALANCE, shox, niko, roeJ, acoR, sdy, cadiaN/TeSeS (Not ranked in order)