Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO May 28
Sean Mitchell brings you his top plays and strategies for today's CSGO slate.
Happy Thursday, and welcome back to another CSGO DFS Playbook featuring three more games from the DreamHack Masters series! We have two matches out of Group D and one out of Group B for today, and we have some good ones, so let’s get right into it!
Vitality (Ranked 10th in World) vs NiP (Ranked 13th in World)
The first match of the day should be a good one as we get the first sighting of NiP since the Road to Rio and we get a Vitality team that lost their match yesterday to NaVi on the third and final map after a horrendous beginning on that third map being Overpass. They were put into a deficit very early by some great CT side play by NaVi and even though they went on a mini-run when moving to the CT side, it still was not enough losing the map 16-9. Today they will have a bit of a tougher task in NiP, however NiP will be playing with a new face on their roster in hampus over Lekr0. It was said yesterday that Astralis is actually allowing Xpy9x to step away as well after Gla1ve did the same just a short week or so ago. I mention this because it was also stated that Astralis was in talks with NiP about acquiring Lekr0. Hampus should be a pretty solid move for them here, Lekr0 wasn’t playing bad, but he wasn’t exactly a top fragger either or every game in-game leader. Hampus should allow them to have a bit more fragging-power and this should play well into NiP’s young, run-and-gun type mentality. Currently, the books have these two listed smack-dab split at -115 on the money line for both squads. Slight lean to the Under 2.5 maps as well as it is seeing a bit more juice at -130. Vitality didn’t exactly look rusty yesterday, but with a match back under their belt I expect them to look a bit better in this one. NiP hasn’t played a major match in roughly eleven days, so will be interesting to see if they have a bit of rust, as well as the chemistry with the newly added hampus. These two squads are decently familiar with each other, as they have already played four matches in 2020, two of those being in the Road to Rio tournament where they split those matches, and both went the full three-map distance as well. The head-to-head history is on the side of Vitality as well as they have won three of the four matches played so far this year. They also won the most recent match, that allowed them to finish 4th place in RtR tournament as well. Vitality has been on a skid ever since that match however, losing their last two to G2 and NaVi yesterday, so they will definitely be looking to get back in the win column, and seeing how these two are dead split at the books, I feel they could really compete for the win here. Let’s take a look at the projected map picks.
The first ban for NiP and its at 100% lately is Dust2, and this isn’t a big blow to Vitality as they have only won six of their last 12 attempts on this map. For Vitality, it is Train and it is also at 100%, so can likely easily throw these two out. I could see strategy map ban here of Overpass by Vitality, as it was a map they looked bad on yesterday and being the first choice quite a bit for NiP. The first picks have been Overpass for NiP roughly 45% of the time, and Nuke for Vitality. Nuke has been a good map for Vitality in their head-to-head prior matches, as they have won Nuke in three of the three matches it was selected in. After seeing how poorly Vitality played Overpass on the decider map yesterday against NaVi, I would expect NiP to take advantage with it as their pick as well. I feel pretty confident that these are the two map picks (could easily see NiP go with Vertigo if Overpass is banned) chosen, and with the last two matches going the full distance of three maps, I wouldn’t be shocked to see this one go three maps as well. The decider could likely be Mirage (favors Vitality quite a bit) or Inferno (split with both winning over 60% of their last eight attempts here). Let’s look at who is performing on Nuke and Overpass for these two. For Vitality on Nuke (11 map sample) ZywOo is at the top with a 1.21 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.18 IMP, and 82.4 ADR. Followed by apEX alone above a 1.0 rating at 1.01. For Overpass (five map sample) shox is the top-rated guy at 1.12, with a 0.73 KPR, 1.21 IMP, and 83.9 ADR. Two others followed in ZywhOo at 1.09 and RpK at 1.02. For Vertigo (small three map sample) RpK has been good here and tops the list with a 1.24 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.29 IMP, and 86.0 ADR. Followed by misutaaa at 1.15, apEX at 1.04 and shox at 1.01. For NiP on Nuke (six map sample) nawwk sits at the top at 1.07 rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.03 IMP, and 74.5 ADR. Next and only other option carrying a rating above a 1.0 is Plopski at 1.05. Doesn’t seem like a good map for them. For Overpass (12 map sample) REZ sits at the top with a hefty 1.27 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.40 IMP, and 85 ADR. Plopski is close behind at 1.26, twist at 1.22, nawwk at 1.16, and also hampus at 1.16. For Vertigo (10 map sample) Plopski leads the way here with a 1.30 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.36 IMP, and 84.4 ADR. Next is REZ at 1.20, twist at 1.16, and nawwk at 1.11. Hampus has only played once here in last three months but his numbers were pretty hefty. I would highly expect Vitality to ban Overpass, as it is not a good map for them and they have actually won all three of their last tries on Vertigo. I highly expect Nuke and Vertigo to be the picks. If Vitality doesn’t find a win on Nuke like they have in prior matches, this could turn into a 2-0 sweep for NiP. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: zywOo – (He’s still by far their best and most consistent player, no one else is relatively close to his talent-level and upside)
Top stacking Options: zywOo, shox, RpK
ANCHOR: Plopski – (Grades out well for their projected map picks and has above ratings for both projected maps, also with nice KPR numbers and low DPR. He has the upside and is a good fragger with clutch/kill bonus upside as well)
Top Stacking Options: Plopski, REZ, Nawwk/hampus ( I honestly don’t mind Twist as value also, he was damn good with the AWP in RtR)
NaVi (Ranked 2nd in World) vs ENCE (Ranked 23rd in World)
As mentioned above NaVi escaped after a stellar start to the third map in Overpass over Vitality and kept their foot on the pedal winning that match 2-1. ENCE like many others have not played in roughly two weeks and will be making their debut in the DreamHack Masters series today against NaVi. ENCE comes into this in good recent form, as they had won four of their prior five matches in the Road to Rio with their only loss coming to the team that won it all in Astralis, and they even took them to three maps as well. ENCE does have a new face on their squad as well in Jamppi, so will be interesting to see how he plays in his debut) Per the current betting odds, the books are backing NaVi to no surprise in this one as a -160 favorite on the money line. While the under 2.5 maps is juiced up decently as well at -145. These two tames have yet to face-off in 2020 but saw each other a total of four times in 2019 with two best of ones and two best of three series. All four were split in half with ENCE winning two as well as NaVi winning two as well. To be technical, the last match they played was a best of one that ended in a 15-15 tie, so with that being said, ENCE has won two of the last three prior to that. Let’s take a look at some projected map picks.
We can throw out Vertigo as both are generally using this as their first ban almost 100% of the time lately, the next most banned being Mirage, interestingly enough by both as well. So, depending on who gets the first ban pick, id say we can likely throw these two out. The first picks have been Dust2 for NaVi, and ENCE won’t mind this pick because they have won roughly 60% there with a four-map winning streak, while NaVi is seeing their best results there hence the first choice winning this map almost 75% of the time lately. For ENCE the first choice has been Train, a map they have won over 60% of their last eight tries on. Feel pretty confident that these could easily be our two map choices for this match. Let’s see who is doing well on these. For NaVi on Dust2 (11 map sample) led by S1imple with a monstrous 1.40 rating, 0.90 KPR, 1.52 IMP, and 87.9 ADR. Two other players for NaVi top the 1.0 threshold with electronic at 1.26 and flamie barely above at 1.01. For Train (five map sample) electronic tops the list with a 1.17 rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.26 IMP, and 83.8 ADR. Followed up by S1mple with 1.11 and Boombl4 at 1.03. For ENCE on Dust2 (seven map sample) allu leads the team with a 1.19 rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.30 IMP, and 79.1 ADR. Followed up by jamppi at 1.16, Aerial at 1.13, sergej at 1.05, and suNny at 1.01. Not bad numbers for the whole squad on NaVi’s likely first map choice. For Train (eight map sample) allu has been an absolute beast here with the AWP sitting with a 1.44 rating, 0.92 KPR, 1.45 IMP, and 93.9 ADR. Followed by sergej at 1.13, SuNny at 1.08, and Aerial at 1.05. No prior map history over last three months on Train for Jamppi. After looking over the data here, I truly feel there is some very nice value on ENCE. The world will be on S1mple again likely and I feel that ENCE can be amazing leverage. I like ENCE in this one, and I’m likely going to be over-weight. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: S1mple – (no explanation needed, one of the best players in the game as we speak)
Top Stacking Options: S1mple, electronic, flamie/perfecto
ANCHOR: allu – (Hefty numbers on both projected map choices, even better on their map Train. He has led them in frags pretty much every prior head-to-head match as well. Super talented with the AWP)
Top Stacking Options: allu, Jamppi, sergej
100 Thieves (Ranked 11th in World) vs Cloud9 (Ranked 16th in World)
Both of these squads have already found a win in their opening round of group play in Group B. Cloud9 took care of Evil Geniuses in a three-map affair, while 100 Thieves beat up on Gen.G in a 2-0 sweep. Per the current listed odds at the books, 100T is listed as a slight -130 favorite to win this match on the money line, and this is likely due to the fact that the last two times these two have battled, 100T has won all four games played, resulting in two 2-0 sweeps in recent head-to-heads. The most recent being at the Road to Rio where they were both close games, but ultimately 100T prevailed as winner on both by final scores of 16-12 and 16-13 on Vertigo and Train. Train has been picked twice in these two matches, the only map that was chosen in both. 100T comes in likely with a boost of confidence after a much-needed win after dropping their prior two matches, and Cloud9 also should be feeling good after a come-from-behind victory over EG, making it their third match win out of their last four matches. Let’s look at some projected map picks.
The first ban picks for these two includes Overpass for 100T and Mirage for Cloud9. Pretty significant ban numbers for these two maps at 84% and 96%, so pretty safe to throw these out. The first map choices include Vertigo for 100T and Inferno for Cloud9. I think these are the two maps that will be picked for this match, as both have slight edges for the teams choosing them. Inferno is being won by C9 at a 65% clip over their last 11 tries, compared to only 25% by 100T over their last eight attempts, while 100T is winning 67% of their last six tries on Vertigo, while C9 is barely above .500 at 56% won over their last nine there. So, let’s see the performers for these two projected maps. For 100T on Vertigo (six map sample) jks leads the charge with a 1.28 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.21 IMP, and 83.4 ADR. Followed by jkaem at 1.23, AZR at 1.16, Gratisfaction and Liazz both at 1.10 to round it out. For Inferno (five map sample) Gratisfaction leads the team with a 1.17 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 81.6 ADR and the cleanest mustache as well in CS:GO. Next isjkaem at 1.13, jks at 1.10, Liazz at 1.07, and also AZR at 1.06. For Cloud9 on Vertigo (nine map sample) oSee leads the team with a 1.12 rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.07 IMP, and 81.3 ADR. He is followed by Sonic at 1.11, and both Floppy and motm at 1.09. For Inferno (10 map sample) floppy tops the charts at 1.25 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.28 IMP, and 84.9 ADR. Next, oSee at 1.11, Sonic and motm both at 1.08. After looking over the projected maps, I feel this is the biggest toss-up of the slate to be honest. Both teams coming in after nice wins, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one go a full three maps. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: jks – (Feel his numbers on Vertigo catapult him to the top of my value list here)
Top Stacking Options: jks, gratisfaction, jkaem
Anchor: floppy (going back to the well here, as floppy is their best player 95% of the time and his numbers on Inferno are very nice)
Top Stacking Options: floppy, oSee, Sonic/motm
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: allu, S1mple, Plopski, ZywOo, floppy, jks (not ranked in order)
Top Stacks: ENCE, NiP, Vitality, 100T, C9, NaVi
Top Values: hampus, electronic, jkaem, Sonic/motm, RpK