Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO May 25
We are back with yet another 3-game DreamHack Masters Spring 2020 slate, but today we will have the beginning of group play for the C Group! Couple of big names in this Group C, and we get to see a couple right here today! I’m pumped, let’s go!
Fnatic (Ranked 3rd in World) vs Spirit (Ranked 17th in World)
While I am typing this article (Sunday before noon), Spirit is actually in the semi-finals of the Home Sweet Home Cup 5 playing Heroic, who was a part of group A in the beginning matches of their play just last week. The winner of this match will go onto face SMASH later this afternoon for the Grand Final of that event. On Monday however, Spirit will be facing a much tougher task. Fnatic haven’t played in a major event since they took a putrid 12th place in the Road to Rio earlier this month. So, hopefully the time off will be beneficial for them, as it wasn’t but just merely a couple weeks off, not like MAD Lions who took over a month off before playing their opening round of DHM’s. Spirit has played very well in the Home Sweet Home series obviously with them in the semis, but they have also won four of their last five matches, all against quality opponents just a tier down from the level Fnatic is on. Teams like Winstrike, they swept, Apeks also, and just beat ForZe yesterday with a 2-1 result to advance to today’s semis. Fnatic has been on quite the free-fall as you could tell by their 12th place exit in RtR, and they had lost three of their prior five matches as well in the event before exiting. Let’s hope that this time off helped. This should be a decently good match, and the books don’t exactly have Fnatic on the level they were at when they won the ESL Pro League before the RtR as they are just a -245 favorite to win this match over at BookMaker. These two teams have not had any prior history together, so we will look to some maps for some guidance.
The first bans for these two squads are Vertigo, and Spirit is banning this map roughly 70% of the time. So, we can kick out Vertigo pretty easily. Fnatic has banned two maps recently at the same percentage of 24% lately other than the 35% ban of Vertigo, and those two are Nuke, and Train. Both of these maps have been good to Spirit lately, as they have won 76% of their last 17 tries recently on Nuke, as well as 78% of their last nine of Train. Well, they have also been good to Fnatic, as both maps sit above 60%-win clip for them as well, but a smaller number of maps in seven for Nuke and five for Train. The first pick of Dust2 for Spirit could potentially aid Fnatic in their first ban pick in the event that they pick 2nd, as this is a map that Spirit has won roughly 70% of over their last 19 tries there and seeing as how Fnatic is winning just 50% of their last 12 tries here, compared to their 60+% on Nuke/Train. So, in my opinion, I think we can throw out Vertigo and Dust2. The first map choice for Fnatic has been Inferno, a map that both have wont roughly 65% of lately, and the next map to be chosen first from Spirit after Dust2 is Mirage, a map that Fnatic has only won 50% of lately, while Spirit has won over 60%. So, if my logic is rational, I could see us playing on Inferno and Mirage. Let’s see who has been performing the best on these two maps. For Fnatic on their projected map pick of Inferno (14 map sample) flusha tips the scale by a small margin sitting with a 1.14 rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.23 IMP, 72.1 Kill-Asst%, and 83.7 ADR. Followed closely by JW at 1.13 rating, Brollan at 1.10, and KRIMZ at 1.06. For Mirage (12 map sample) KRIMZ sits at the top with a heft 1.20 rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 71.5 Kill-Asst%, and 86.3 ADR. He is followed up by flusha with 1.10, Brollan with 1.07, and JW with 1.04. For Spirit on Inferno (21 map sample) mir leads the way with a 1.17 rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.04 IMP, and 79.6 ADR. He is ceded by iDISBALANCE at 1.11 as well as magixx at 1.1, and both last two options have over a 1.0 as well with chopper at 1.10 and somedieyoung (sdy) at 1.06. For Mirage (12 map sample) mir leads us again with 1.24 rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.35 IMP, 71.8 Kill-Asst%, and 86.0 ADR. He is followed by sdy with 1.17, iDISBALANCE with 1.10, magixx with 1.08, and chopper 1.06. After viewing the projected maps and the player stats on those maps, along with the fact that Spirit has had a ton of experience lately on most of all the maps and have been excellent on just about all, I truly think there is some major value on them here in this match. Fnatic did take a couple weeks off, Spirit is playing high-level CSGO as we speak with a chance at a grand finale. I would be watching their results today, as emotions could play a part in any big win/heart-breaking loss, so just keep an eye out. The stats show us that Spirit should be able to play quite competitively with these guys. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: KRIMZ – (This dude def needed the time off, he was not playing well. He is one of the better tactical players in this game, and I expect him to come in revitalized and rejuvenated here. His stats are great for the projected map choices)
Top Stacking Options: KRIMZ, flusha, Brollan/JW
ANCHOR: mir – (Hefty numbers on the projected maps and he has been their go-to guy lately. Super consistent most of the time, and he has nice upside and should be low-owned)
Top Stacking Options: mir, iDISBALANCE, sdy/chopper
FaZe (Ranked 7th in World) vs GODSENT (Ranked 18th in World)
This is a match that I’m really pumped for and the match that I am looking forward to the most on this slate, and it could or could not be the fact that I’m pretty much a FaZe homer. Deal with it! FaZe had quite a bit of a shake-up just a day ago when Olofmiester decided to take a leave of absence for a little while to clear his head and re-gain the motivation to play at a high level. Some may not respect these guys that have done this, but it is vital I think for a player that is playing at such a high level to recognize when he is off, or when the love and passion for a game is not once what it was. Especially when you are playing at such a high-level as FaZe is day in and day out. Either way, FaZe will be fine and they have already been looking for a replacement. GODSENT actually had quite the gain recently on the flip-side as they were able to nab quite the pick-up of Farlig who was playing for Copenhagen Flames, and was by far their best player. This is a major haul for GODSENT, a team that fared quite well in the Road to Rio Series finishing in 7th place of a pretty stacked field. Farlig will be a major contributor for them right out of the gate and could easily put them over that ledge of being a really serious contender in CS:GO. Both of these teams took the small amount of time off since the Road to Rio series before playing any other events and they will both meet after that amount of time here. FaZe nearly won the Road to Rio and they were my pick to win it, that was until Astralis decided to go boss-mode. Either way, they finished in 3rd place for the whole event, and didn’t lose a match until the semis of the upper bracket. These two teams did face-off in this event as well, as FaZe sent them with an “L” in just two maps. Speaking of maps, let’s see what the map data can provide for us in this match-up. For those wondering, the books currently have FaZe as a -300 favorite to win this match as well.
The first ban for GODSENT is the first map choice for FaZe in Mirage lately and we can go ahead and throw this one out, as FaZe have won 83% of their last 12 tries there. GOD is picking Overpass roughly 22% of the time lately as their first map choice and FaZe is banning Vertigo about 75% of the time as well. With FaZe choosing Dust2 roughly 30% as their second first map choice, I believe we can see this one as this is a strategy pick for them as well with GOD only winning 36% there in their last 11 tries. I don’t think FaZe will mind going to Overpass as GOD’s pick either, so I have some confidence that these are the two maps we will see for their choices. Let’s see who is playing well on them. For FaZe on Dust2 (nine map sample) NiKo leads the way with an admirable 1.38 rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.39 IMP, 77.2 Kill-Asst%, and 92.1 ADR. Next is coldzera with a 1.18, rain with 1.14, and broky with a 1.09. On Overpass (seven map sample) NiKo leads us again with a 1.15 rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.11 IMP, and 82.9 ADR. Followed up by coldzera again a 1.04, and broky at 1.04. Not the greatest of numbers, and it’s not exactly been a great map for them either. For GOD on Dust2 (10 map sample) STYKO sits at the top with a 1.19 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.21 IMP, and 87.2 ADR. Followed by Farlig with 1.22, zehN with 1.12, and Maden with 1.09. For Overpass (seven map sample) STYKO leads us again here with a 1.20 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.32 IMP, and 82.1 ADR. Next is zehN at 1.10, Maden at 1.09. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: NiKo – (No -brainer here, and he will likely be chalky. I love NiK0 though, he is such a stud, he gets lots of bonus points which help max his upside)
Top Stacking Options: NiKo, coldzera, rain
ANCHOR: STYKO – (Has played pretty flawlessly on both projected map picks with great IMP, KRP, and ADR)
Top Stacking Options: STYKO, Farlig, zehN/Maden
Evil Geniuses (Ranked 8th in World) vs Cloud9 (Ranked 19th)
Another clash that will involve a couple teams that haven’t played since the Road to Rio series in EG and C9 here. The books currently are offering EG at -220 on the money line to win this match. EG didn’t fair as well in the RtR as Cloud9 did taking 3rd overall place to EG’s 8th place. These two squads faced off just one time in the event as well with Cloud9 taking a 2-1 victory. Cloud9 really came alive in that tournament after a pretty lack-luster period of time before it, and that makes me somewhat excited to watch them play in this match up. EG had lost three of their prior four matches in the event as well, beating only a pretty weak Triumph team. Cloud9 decided that oSee and motm would play pretty stellar during the RtR, so hopefully that carries over as floppy plays much more efficiently when they are clicking as well. EG will rely on BrehzeGOD, CeRq, and ethan to pulled most of their continued load, as they often do. Let’s take a look at some projected maps for some edge advantages.
The first bans for these two teams include Mirage for Cloud9 and Overpass for EG. The first picks include Inferno for Cloud9 and Nuke for EG. Inferno is a map that is mostly split between the two as they are both winning over 60% there lately, and Nuke favors EG by a smidge, however its s 45% to 36% (cloud9) split, so neither is winning over 50% on it. I could see Cloud9 using map strategy here and take Dust2 as it has been a map they have won five of their last seven tries on, while EG has won just 33% of their last nine tries there. The fact that EG splits them on their initial first pick of Inferno, I could easily see C9 going that route and I believe they will. So, let’s see who is performing on Dust2 and Nuke. For EG on their likely choice of Nuke (eight map sample) CeRq sits at the top with a 1.16 rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.27 IMP, and 78.7 ADR. Brehze follows with a 1.13 and Ethan sits with a 1.07 to round out the over 1.0 rating threshold. For Dust2 (seven map sample) only two options sit above a 1.0 rating, and that is Brehze at 1.06 and CeRq at 1.01. Would be very smart of C9 to choose Dust2. For Cloud9 on Nuke (10 map sample) floppy sits atop with a 1.16 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.08 IMP, 72.9 Kill-Asst%, and 82.9 ADR. oSee is next at 1.14, and Sonic concludes it sitting at the threshold of 1.0. For Dust2 (seven map sample) oSee leads us with a hefty 1.21 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.18 IMP, and 84.3 ADR. Next, we have both Sonic and motm at 1.08 and that concludes the list. After looking at the map data, I think this match is a complete toss-up. Cloud9 won their most recent match, and it did go a full three maps, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see that same result here. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: CeRq – (Sits 1-2 for the projected map picks and for their projected map he sits at the top be a decent margin)
Top Stacking Options: CeRq, Brehze, Ethan
ANCHOR: oSee – (Huge numbers on Dust2, could be a real difference-maker at the cpt spot with everyone likely going floppy)
Top Stacking Options: oSee, floppy, Sonic/motm
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: NiKo, STYKO, oSee, mir, KRIMZ, CeRq (ranked in order)
Top Stacks: Spirit, FaZe, Cloud9, GOD, Fnatic, EG (ranked in order)
Top Values: zehN, Ethan, Maden, iDISBALANCE, Sonic, motm, somedieyoung, Bymas (not ranked in order)